In past election cycles in which Dems were leading in all of the polls much ink is typically spilled over over "what the Dems must still overcome to win." As recently as 2006 AP writer Liz "donuts 4 mccain" Sidoti wrote a piece going into great detail what the Dems were up against if they wanted to turn their favorable polling into a Midterm victory. In the absence of any MSM journalist penning such a piece when it's the GOP leading in the polls, I give you the following diary.
Here are some of the challenges for the Republicans tomorrow, as I see them: (these are not all 100%, but reasonable to assume based on the current state of affairs on the Democratic side)
1) Greatest turnout ever among African-Americans for a Midterm Election.
(Based on who happens to be President right now)
2) Greatest turnout ever among Young Voters for a Midterm Election.
(If the 10 million+ calls and extensive canvassing OFA has done mean anything.
3) Greatest turnout ever among Hispanic voters for a Midterm Election.
(Based on demographics, if nothing else)
4) Biggest, most intense and elaborate GOTV operation ever for a Midterm Election.
(Nothing like what OFA has done this cycle has ever been seen before in a midterm election)
5) For the first time in history, the campaign efforts of a popular Sitting President, and a popular Former President in a Midterm Election.
That is not even taking into account the open questions of this cycle:
**Is the "enthusiasm gap" being overstated in the models of different Pollsters?
**Is the fact that the RNC has failed to deploy a coherent GOTV strategy
for the first time in a long time a big factor?
**Is the "cell phone gap" a bigger factor in the polling than we realize?
In regards to the last question, Nate Silver just tweeted a few hours ago: "FWIW, there's about a 4 pt difference between generic ballot polls that included cellphones and those which didn't." If Nate Silver says cell phone sampling can effect the polls, then the only question is by how much?
The bottom line is GOTV. Then VOTE. The GOP could win, but then again we could hold them off and keep the House. As they say in sports "that's why they play the game." Nothing is for sure, and if the GOP wants to win there are certain challenges and obstacles for them to overcome. In years past, when it was the Dems who were leading in the polls the MSM would always report on the challenges and obstacles to an actual Democratic victory. Since we don't see those articles when it's the GOP that holds the leads in the poll, consider this diary in leau of the MSM doing its job.
GOTV. GOTV. GOTV. Shock the GOP. Shock the MSM. Shock the Pollsters. Shock the world!