The UN negotiators reached a deal in Cancun very early this morning. It's being praised from virtually all angles, and it's being labeled as "modest" at the same time.
What did happen in Cancun: Optimism
Kate Sheppard of Mother Jones sums it up: It's not perfect, but it's a deal
The final hours in Cancun were a world of difference from the closing night of the Copenhagen climate talks. Last year's summit closed with drama, confusion, and plenty of unhappy delegations, but the Mexico conference came to an end with multiple standing ovations for the host country and widespread agreement among countries to approve the text of an agreement.
Similarly, the Wonk Room notes the mood of the delegation on the scene: Nations of the world choose hope in the face of the climate crisis
Late Friday night, the representatives of these varied nations chose hope. With a roar of applause overwhelming one dissenting voice, they strongly endorsed a comprehensive document crafted under the leadership of the conference’s president Patricia Espinosa and the executive secretary Christiana Figueres. Countries from every corner of the world noted the mortal threat from destroying our atmosphere through fossil-fuel pollution and supported this international agreement:
The agreement itself accomplishes a lot of what was supposed to be accomplished in Copenhagen, with three very significant exceptions. It sets up a climate fund to help developing nations adapt to climate change (although it doesn't specify the source of that $100 billion fund). It creates mechanisms for technology transfer. It provides some compensation for preservation of tropical forests. And, most important to the United States, it spells out the measuring/reporting/verifying mechanisms to which China balked last year in Copenhagen.
What didn't happen in Cancun: the Kyoto Protocol
Michael Levi of the Council on Foreign Relations warns What Cancun means:
That said, there is one big hole in the Cancun agreement that many observers, in their excitement, appear to have quickly forgotten: its treatment of the Kyoto Protocol. Many developing countries had insisted that rich countries adopt a new set of emissions targets under the Protocol, but Japan, Russia, Canada, and Australia were adamantly opposed. The Cancun result punts the dispute to next year’s talks. But that solution will not be available again: the current Kyoto commitments expire at the end of 2012, making the next UN conference the last practical opportunity to seal a new set of Kyoto pledges.
The Kyoto Protocol divided the world into developed countries and developing countries, placing India and China into the second group. Most developed countries, other than the United States, are legally bound by the Kyoto Protocol to cut carbon through 2012. (The US Senate would not ratify the 1997 treaty.) Developing countries have no similar constraint. In striking contrast to the American optimism, India's Hindustan Times criticizes the Cancun compact: India fails to save Kyoto pact in weak deal. Depending on one's point of view, the Cancun agreement either kicked the Kyoto can down the road or solidified President Obama's Copenhagen Accord.
What didn't happen in Cancun: a legally binding treaty
In a perverse, managing-expectations way, this is good news. It's highly unlikely that the United States Senate in its current mood would ratify a treaty declaring that the sun rises in the east.
What didn't happen in Cancun: Sufficient commitments to stave off climate disaster
Climate pledges are 9 gigatons short:
To keep the world on track to cap global warming at under 2 °C by mid-century, rising CO2 emissions should be kept below 44 gigatonnes a year in 2020, more than a third higher than today. But the UN Environment Programme warned here today that current national pledges would leave 2020 emissions anywhere between 5 and 9 gigatonnes too high.
Minor detail, that.
A pessimist will declare Cancun a failure for failing to reach a legally binding agreement, for failing to keep emissions anywhere close to what they need to be, and for not addressing the Kyoto Protocol. An optimist will declare Cancun a success for its small but necessary steps and for the atmosphere of optimism and transparency it created. I waver.