For unemployment, the forecast is for an average of 10% in 2010, with a decline to 9.2% in 2011, 8.2% in 2012 and 7.3% in 2013 as shown on the following graph
see http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/...
bullshit!
First U6 is the true unemployment rate and is roughly 18%
more on flip...
30% of US workforce are already temps, contractors, consultants, part time workers etc that has resulted in:
The elimination of benefits. A complete shift of risk to individuals. Costs are rising fast (often many, many times the rate of core inflation) and one slip puts you into bankruptcy.
Record levels of job dissatisfaction (waiting for the next great project never happens on your schedule).
Stagnation or a steady erosion of income at best (many see an immediate drop in income or long periods of unemployment between gigs with a shift to temporary status) due to pressure from off-shoring and automation.
some stats
In the 1990s the U.S. economy created a net 22 million jobs, or 2.2 million a year.
From 2000 to the end of 2007, the rate plunged to 900,000 a year.
From 2008 to present the rate is negative ???
so where the heck is all the job creation going to come from to bring U3 unemployment to 7.3% in 2013 ?
Sorry to say that is just more false hope and change bullshit !
Update 1 for people like GlowNZ who does not understand what U6 means vis a vis U3
U-6 = Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers
NOTE: Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.
Update 2 for people like Trix and other kool aide drinkers
hope you make enough money to keep out the poor house ;)
Update 3 Does Obama admin explain how will unemployment figures go down ?
What is going to cause the decline ?
Where are those jobs going to come from?
Or is this a wild ass guess ?
There is very little fundamental analysis of where the jobs are going to come from. And where they will be lost.
There is still a ton of slack in the FIRE economy that has to be worked out, but has been delayed due to government intervention. When those jobs disappear, what will replace them? And where will the new jobs come from?
Few are asking those questions, even fewer are answering them like the Obama admin.
Update 4 intelligence of Calculated Risk people > DKOS people
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/...
I'll put big $$$ on this bet
Update 5 At intrade, the bets are about even money that the Dec 2010 unemployment rate will be above 10%.
http://www.intrade.com/...
Don't let predictive analytics and thinking get in the way of your emotions ;)