The House of Rasmussen returns to form on this Thursday evening, as new non-Ras polling out of the Keystone State hints that Pennsylvania could be ground zero for great races in the 2010 election cycle.
All that, and more, in the Thursday edition of the Wrap.
THE U.S. SENATE
NV-Sen: Lowden's frontrunner status DOA, according to LVRJ
The Las Vegas Review-Journal has contracted a new poll from Mason-Dixon on the competitive GOP primary which will determine the opponent for Senator Harry Reid. The big headline--it might not be accurate to refer to Chicken-for-Checkups architect Sue Lowden as the frontrunner, anymore. Lowden still leads in the GOP primary, but her advantage has essentially evaporated. She leads with 30%, closely followed by former also-ran Sharron Angle (25%), whose cuddling up with the Tea Party crowd has boosted her standing. Just behind Angle is Danny Tarkanian (22%), who has his own right-wing fringe group street cred in the form of endorsement from Minuteman co-founder (and one-time California Congressional candidate) Jim Glichrist.
NY-Sen: Gillibrand primary opponent shifts gears, targets Rangel
For someone who appeared so very vulnerable twelve months ago, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has emerged as one of the safer bets for the Democrats in November. She received a bit of a relief on the home front, as well, with the news that primary challenger Jonathan Tasini (a familiar face to many here at DK) will be shifting races, shutting down a Senate challenge in favor of a primary challenge to embattled Congressman Charlie Rangel in NY-15.
NC-Sen: Marshall grabs major endorsement in runoff election
As the campaign to determine the opponent for freshman Republican Senator Richard Burr continues in an expansive runoff election (six weeks!), NC Secretary of State Elaine Marshall snagged a legitimate endorsement in week two. Marshall earned the endorsement of Eva Clayton, former five-term Congresswoman and the first African-American woman elected to the House from the Tar Heel State. Clayton had been one of the most renowned backers of third-place finisher Kenneth Lewis, who himself is still mum about who he will be supporting in a runoff. A poll released yesterday by PPP had the runoff in North Carolina absolutely deadlocked, with both candidates in the high 30s.
THE U.S. HOUSE
NJ-03: Runyan leaks oppo research...on himself
Conventional wisdom would call this crazy, but this actually smells like pretty smart politics, from where I sit. Republican frontrunner and former NFL athlete Jon Runyan decided to forestall any future scandals by laying out his own dirty laundry. He disclosed past indiscretions like lawsuits and late property tax payments. Getting the story out yourself in May might be a stroke of genius, and is certainly preferable to having your opponent get the story out in October.
NY-29: Gov. Paterson calls special election for Massa seat. But....
For months now, the New York GOP and the NRCC have been clamoring for a special election to replace Democratic Rep. Eric Massa, who resigned in February. They got their wish yesterday...kinda. Governor David Paterson called a special election in the district for November 2nd. If that date sounds familiar, it is because it is the same date as the general election in New York. Meaning, all the special election will accomplish is giving the winner an extra month or two of seniority before assuming their seat for the full term. Republicans had been hoping for an earlier special election date, in hopes that a win there would give them another seat in the House, plus the impression of inevitability as their campaign to reclaim the Congress heads into the Fall months.
PA-12: Critz gets critical Dem aid for final campaign push
All in all, one would have to say it has been a fairly decent couple of days for Democratic Congressional hopeful Mark Critz in southwestern Pennsylvania. Two polls (one internal, one public) showed him reclaiming the lead in the special election called to replace his old boss, the late Rep. John Murtha. He also has some high-profile visitors headed to the district in the form of former President Bill Clinton and popular U.S. Senator Bob Casey. On top of that, the DCCC continues to make the monetary commitment to this race, dropping another quarter-of-a-million dollars (and then some) into the district. That special election coincides with the state's primary elections, which will be held next Tuesday.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
MI-Gov: Schwarz sets deadline for Independent run for Governor
Apparently, we will know by the end of this week if former Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz will be making an independent bid for Governor of Michigan this year. Schwarz, who has been on the outs with the GOP since the party did very little to help him avoid a primary defeat at the hands of Tim Walberg in 2006, has been openly contemplating a gubernatorial bid for months. My best guess is that Schwarz stands down. Schwarz admitted in an interview to being deeply concerned about fundraising ability. He would have to attain 30,000 signatures by July, and he is not a young man, to boot (he is in his early 70s). If he does run, however, it could be of critical importance, as he might drain moderate GOP votes from the Republican nominee, especially if archconservative Rep. Peter Hoekstra is that nominee.
OH-Gov: Strickland hammering Kasich on Lehman Bros. connection
It appears that incumbent Governor Ted Strickland has found a line of attack worth pursuing in the Buckeye State, and he is going to hang onto it for all it is worth. Strickland is blasting his tenure as an executive with Lehman Brothers, focusing on a mid-six figure bonus paid to the former Congressman by the now bankrupt institution. The size of the bonus has become a bone of contention, since Kasich has been working feverishly to minimize his tenure at the Lehman shop. This has led Strickland to pounce, pointing out (with some justificiation) that if Kasich's role at Lehman Brother was so modest, then why in the world would he merit a $400K bonus? Kasich has held a steady-but-narrow lead in the polls, but those polls have not factored in this burgeoning campaign issue, which has only been raised in earnest in recent weeks.
PA-Gov: Primary status quo, General tightening according to new polls
New polls out of the Keystone State suggest that the gubernatorial primaries are pretty much holding to form over these last few days, while the general election might be getting infinitely more interesting. On the primary side, the same Suffolk poll that showed Arlen Specter badly trailing Joe Sestak also showed a confirmation that Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (46%) easily led the rest of the Democratic field (Anthony Williams runs second at 13%). This was confirmed by the Muhlenberg tracker, which also showed Onorato pulling away. On the GOP side, state Attorney General Tom Corbett has a huge lead (58-20) over conservative state legislator Sam Rohrer.
Thus, with both nominations looking well on their way to being locked down, it might be time to shift focus to the general election. Quinnipiac (whose primary polls were a focus on yesterday's Wrap) polled the general election here, and they saw some serious tightening in this race. Corbett, long a double-digit favorite over the Democratic field, now leads Onorato by just six points (43-37). Quite clearly, the same media blitz that propelled Onorato to the front of the field on the Democratic side has yielded general election dividends.
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
After a couple of aberrant results (for Rasmussen, anyway), the pollster returns to form. There are loads of GOP-friendly results to sift through in the three states where Rasmussen releases data today.
CO-Gov: Scott McInnis (R) 47%, John Hickenlooper (D) 41%
KS-Gov: Sam Brownback (R) 58%, Tom Holland (D) 27%
KS-Sen: Jerry Moran (R) 60%, David Haley (D) 25%
KS-Sen: Jerry Moran (R) 61%, Lisa Johnston (D) 25%
KS-Sen: Jerry Moran (R) 59%, Charles Schollenberger (D) 25%
KS-Sen: Todd Tiahrt (R) 50%, David Haley (D) 29%
KS-Sen: Todd Tiahrt (R) 57%, Lisa Johnston (D) 29%
KS-Sen: Todd Tiahrt (R) 55%, Charles Schollenberger (D) 30%
NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte (R) 50%, Paul Hodes (D) 38%
NH-Sen: Bill Binnie (R) 49%, Paul Hodes (D) 37%
NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 41%, Jim Bender (R) 39%
NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 43%, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 38%