With the 2010 hurricane season upon us, and expected to be a busy one, I wanted to take a moment to bring up the subject of hurricanes, as it relates to Global Warming. Although I am a hardline believer in Global Warming... or, reality, as is the case... I am not an alarmist. That's not to say that we are not near a critical tipping point. Indeed, we probably are... as climate researchers suggest. However, I believe we're not past the point of no return, and I also believe we have the ability to adapt or, through technological advancements, perhaps even put our climate change in reverse (through the greening of the planet, carbon sequestration, and/or other human ingenuity). Anyway, I digress... but my point is, as you will see... I'm going to point you to probably (IMO) the best research on Global Warming's effect on hurricanes, and it is a very apolitical, balanced, reality-based research. And, yet, it is extremely sobering.....
I apologize in advance for the boring, text-heavy nature of this diary. Any and all images I would grab are from the article linked below. I encourage you to open it in a new window and examine it in full for yourself. It is not a new article (though it was updated last month), but is the best on this subject.
NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has performed the best research to date on the impact of Global Warming on hurricanes, with a particular focus on the Atlantic. I will let you read the paper for yourself. But I'd like to address some of the critical points therein.
First and foremost, it should be noted that the results of this paper come from modeling of the atmosphere. While some might argue, correctly, that models are never perfect (indeed, they ran a suite of models and the individual members did, in fact, arrive at differing results), modeling is the best way to tackle this highly complex issue. The problem is, different researchers (some with political motivations) have focused on individual components. For example, Dr. William Gray has focused on the fact that the upper troposphere will warm more than the ocean. For those who are not meteorologically inclined, what this means is quite simple... warm air rises => thunderstorms require rapid rising motion => a hurricane is driven by, at least initially, and continues to act like, in a very general way, a thunderstorm => so..... since warm air rises, if you warm the upper part of the atmosphere, it becomes more difficult to lift the air from the lower atmosphere. In other words, rising motion is capped... as are thunderstorms... and hurricanes are reduced (either in number, intensity, or both). Then, on the other side, you have folks like Dr. Kerry Emanuel who argue that the increasing water temperatures, which act as fuel for hurricanes, will lead to an increase in hurricanes (at least in intensity, if not number). Both of these camps raise correct, good points. The problem is, it is a complex system. Determining which factor "wins" is nearly impossible to determine by some theoretical application. What one needs to do is actually physically, dynamically model the situation and see what the end result is. That's what the GFDL did.
The beauty of this paper, in my opinion, is that there is clearly NO political bias in it. In fact, while their end results are somewhat sobering, they go out of their way to affirm some of the factors which will have a negating effect on Atlantic hurricanes... like the warmer upper tropospheric temperatures and increased wind shear.
The bottom line in their research is that the overall number of storms that will form in the Atlantic will decrease. BUT the number of storms becoming intense will increase substantially. This is a critically important point because intense hurricanes are responsible for an inordinate percentage of all damage. Intense hurricanes only account for a small percentage of the total landfalling storms in the U.S. (or other portions of North and Central America, for that matter), yet they account for a vast majority of the damage incurred.
This fact becomes extremely important, because it renders many skeptics' arguments null and void (they love to cite the research that states that the number of storms in the Atlantic will decrease... it is true, but not terribly relevant). The fact is, while total storm numbers may decrease, the number of intense storms should increase. What's more, as this GFDL paper shows, the increase in intense storms is most likely to occur in the western portion of the Atlantic Basin - close to land.
In conclusion of their research, the GFDL is then able to estimate the approximate increase in storm damage potential. They estimate the potential damage increase at 30% by the end of this century. And, importantly, they also point out that this is simply based on the increased intensity of the storms. This makes no adjustment for the ever-increasing coastal development. Nor does it make any adjustment for the ongoing rise in sea levels. Both of these factors will, of course, further increase damage potential.
Obviously, this is only one of many negative impacts of Global Warming. But since hurricanes are my meteorological expertise, I wanted to post a diary sharing this GFDL paper with the DKos community. It is a rather frightening paper. It is very non-alarmist and very much accepting of and even verifies many of the factors that would keep hurricanes in check. Yet, it still concludes that a 30% increase in potential storm damage is likely by the end of the century, and that this increase excludes two critical factors which will further exacerbate damage. Moreover, with the increased rainfall discussed in the paper, we would not only be talking about increased coastal damage... but inland damage due to rainfall-induced flooding would likely increase as well.
...just one of many reasons why the climate situation must be addressed quickly and sufficiently.
UPDATE Adding this image, from the GFDL research, but provided to me by fellow DKos'er FishOutofWater. Thanks, FOoW. The image below shows, distinctly, the increase in major hurricanes anticipated to impact the U.S. in a globally warmed environment. In fact, what the image depicts is far greater than the "30% increase" that the GFDL talks about... and it is from the 18-member model ensemble. So, I admit, it is even a little confusing to me. No matter, the inference is clear... there is a significant threat increase to the U.S.:
...it is a little difficult to see, but the upper left map shows storms in a non-warmed environment, and indicates only between one and three major landfalls on the U.S. (during a decade). The map on the lower left, in a warmed environment, indicates approximately nine major landfalls on the U.S.
The maps on the right are showing the actual count, per decade, of the major storms. Note that almost the entire increase in major storms occurs in the near-land, western Atlantic.