On this Thursday, the 24th day in June, The Wrap wishes a happy 34th birthday to Brock Olivo. If the name doesn't ring a bell, allow for a brief refresher course: running as a Republican for the open seat left vacant by Kenny Hulshof in Missouri, Olivo (a former college and NFL football player) suffered through one of the all-time great catastrophic rollouts in the pantheon of political campaigns.
When all was said and done, Olivo ran a distant fourth in the GOP primary, barely cracking into double digits. But he was one of the most memorable characters of the 2008 cycle, so...good on him for that.
With those salutations out of the way, on with the Wrap!
THE U.S. SENATE
AZ-Sen: Great news! For John McCain! in post-infomercial poll
Newly prolific GOP pollsters Magellan Research have waded into the Grand Canyon State, and they have found that in the wake of the revelation that teabagger wannabe JD Hayworth spent some of his post-Congressional days hawking obtaining government grants in infomercials, his numbers have taken a beating (PDF file). Hayworth is dealing with a potentially fatal 38/50 favorability spread in the poll, which incidentally showed Sarah Palin running a distant second behind Mitt Romney in a potential 2012 showdown.
CO-Sen: Norton's ad draws fire, while she claims lead in internal
Amid public polling showing her campaign in a tailspin against right-wing insurgent candidate Ken Buck, you might recall that establishment Republican candidate Jane Norton unveiled a brutally desperate 9/11 themed ad to shore up her anti-Obama bonafides. It has not seemed to work. The ad has been roundly condemned, including most recently in a petition signed by almost three dozen veterans, entreating her to take down the ad. Meanwhile, Norton is in alternate reality mode, releasing a poll earlier this week showing her out front of Buck by six points (a SUSA poll last week had her down sixteen).
CT-Sen: McMahon explicitly accuses Simmons of "stealth campaign"
Clearly, what had been a subterranean squabble in the Nutmeg State is now very much out in the open. There had been whispers of complaint from McMahon supporters that the suspended campaign of former Congressman Rob Simmons was acting like a stealth campaign. Now, the candidate herself has given voice to those concerns:
"For a while [Simmons] said that he was leaving his name on the ballot for financial reasons relative to fundraising and that sort of thing. But I think we're passed that now," she said. "So his name is still there and he is still campaigning for other Republican candidates, local candidates primarily, within the state, under the guise of helping them raise funds, et cetera. But he's still giving his speech."
McMahon, it would seem, has reason to be concerned. An early June Quinnipiac poll showed McMahon leading Simmons by just a 45-29 margin, with Paul-ite Peter Schiff trailing badly at 13%.
KS-Sen: Another day, another Sarah Palin Facebook endorsement
Time will tell if this is a difference maker in deep-red Kansas, but Sarah Palin has once again stepped to the podium on her Facebook page and offered an endorsement in the contested Republican primary between Congressmen Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. Palin, for those scoring at home, gave her nod to Tiahrt, who might want to read the latest data on the utility of a Palin endorsement.
OR-Sen: New public poll splits diff between Ras and Wyden Internal
Regular readers of the Wrap will recall that it was dueling pollsters this week in Oregon, where a Rasmussen poll showed incumbent Democratic Ron Wyden up just 10 points over Republican Jim Huffman, while Wyden's own internal polling had him up 30. A new poll by Davis Hibbitts and Midghall acts as a midpoint, showing Wyden doing considerably better than the House of Ras (but not as well as the Wyden internal poll). Wyden leads the Republican by a 50-32 margin, according to the poll.
WI-Sen: GOP frontrunner gets heat for ties to controversial author
A columnist for the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel is ripping Republican Senate frontrunner Ron Johnson for his controversial ties to "Bell Curve" author Charles Murray. Apparently, Johnson was instrumental in bringing Murray to Wisconsin to speak in front of a private educational partnership group earlier this year. It was an act that J-S columnist Eugene Kane compared to Rev. Louis Farrakhan being invited by Russ Feingold to speak in Wisconsin, in terms of the polarizing nature of both gentlemen.
THE U.S. HOUSE
LA-02: Dem frontrunner calls out GOP for Indie plants in tight race
If there is fire to this smoke, it could prove to be an explosive allegation. Democratic state legislator Cedric Richmond, who only last week made his bid for Congress against vulnerable Republican Rep. Joseph Cao official, is strongly suggesting that the GOP is seeking out African-Americans to run as Independent candidates in the 2nd district. Cao will need all the help he can get against Richmond (or whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee), in this district that leans so precipitously to the Democratic party.
MA-10: Speaking of Indie candidates in competitive races...
While not fatal to their chances, Democrats cannot be the slightest bit happy about the news emanating out of the Massachusetts' 10th district (arguably among the most GOP-friendly districts in this blue state). James Sheets, a seventy-something former Democrat and longtime mayor of the city of Quincy, has announced that he will seek the seat as an Independent. The seat was vacated by Quincy Democrat Bill Delahunt, who retired this year after seven terms in the House. The 10th was the closest district in the 2008 presidential elections, giving Barack Obama just a 55-43 advantage over John McCain.
MN-03: BP makes freshman Republican a target in swing district
It was only a matter of time before BP became a campaign issue in races all around the country, and one Democratic candidate in Minnesota has found a way to catch freshman Republican Erik Paulsen. Jim Meffert, the Democrat challenging Paulsen in November, is ripping Paulsen for attending a fundraiser for a Colorado candidate co-hosted by BP lobbyist Dan Meyer.
PA-15: BP also on Callahan's mind, but in a very different way
Contrast Paulsen's rubbing elbows with BP lobbyists with the reaction to the disaster from one of the leading Democratic challengers for Congress this year. John Callahan, the mayor of Bethlehem and Democratic challenger to Republican incumbent Charlie Dent, is donating the proceeds from a forthcoming fundraiser on July 1st to relief organizations for the victims of the Deepwater Horizon disaster.
TN-08: Republican frontrunner makes major-league unforced error
This is one of those little bizarre stories that adds color to the election cycle. Stephen Fincher, one of the NRCC recruits running in the very vulnerable GOP-leaning 8th district, exercised his civic duty last month by voting in local elections. The catch? He apparently elected to vote in the Democratic Primary. That probably won't go over too well in what promises to be an expensive and competitive Republican primary in the district long held by conservative Democrat John Tanner. (Hat Tip: diarist wtndem at Swing State Project)
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AL-Gov: Battle lines clearly being drawn in runoff
The schism between "country club" conservatism and movement conservatism is being quite clearly delineated in the state of Alabama. Social conservatives have generally coalesced around primary runner up Robert Bentley, a state legislator. But the business community seems to be casting its lot with primary leader Bradley Byrne. Both the Alabama Trucking Association and the Business Council of Alabama offered their endorsements of Byrne, who faces Bentley in a runoff election scheduled for July 13th.
IL-Gov: Cohen still not a lock for the ballot?
Interesting analysis today out of the Land of Lincoln: former Democratic LG nominee and nouveau Independent candidate for Governor Scott Lee Cohen might not be out of the woods yet, despite putting together a monster petition effort that will likely pass muster. Local journo Benjamin Yount suspects that Cohen might face a courtroom challenge to his candidacy. Apparently, it is an open question as to whether or not someone can run in a partisan primary and then also file for an Independent candidacy in the same election cycle. Remember that Cohen does not fall into the common position of "sore loser" status. He actually won the nomination, only to abdicate it when issues of his past were raised after his surprise primary win.
IA-Gov: Branstad goes right, but not to Vander Plaats, for LG nod
This will no doubt merit a "stay tuned", especially as jilted primary runner-up Bob Vander Plaats is supposed to break his post-primary silence before this week is through. Today, Republican nominee Terry Branstad went with state Senator Kim Reynolds as his choice for Lt. Governor. Reynolds is generally thought of a conservative, but it remains to be seen if the movement conservatives who eschewed Branstad's candidacy (including those advocating for a Indie bid from Vander Plaats) will be mollified by her selection.
NM-Gov: Toss-up race confirmed by Republican pollster
Making their second appearance on the Thursday Wrap (who do they think they are, Rasmussen?!?) is the newly prolific crew at Magellan Strategies. I missed this one yesterday, but they have released new numbers out of the Land of Enchantment, where they show a true dead heat between Republican Susana Martinez and Democrat Diane Denish. According to the survey, Martinez leads Denish by a single point (44-43). Amazingly (and, perhaps, a little bit hard to believe), Magellan claims that both candidates have near-total (98%!) name recognition. That leaves me to wonder if, as often has been claimed about the House of Ras, Magellan is overemphasizing highly motivated (and often highly knowledgeable) voters, thus under-sampling the more recreational voters who nonetheless will turn out to vote.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Rasmussen hits a couple of high-profile Senate races, and find substantive improvements for Democrats in both races. Meanwhile, they also hit perhaps the lowest profile Senate race, in the state of Vermont. No surprise--the Democrat is doing pretty darned well there, as well.
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 48%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 41%
NC-Sen: Sen. Richard Burr (R) 44%, Elaine Marshall (D) 43%
VT-Sen: Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) 64%, Len Britton (R) 29%