Summary:
MD has 8 reps: 1 R, 7 D Primary Sept. 14
MA has 10 reps: all D Primary Sept. 14
MI has 15 reps: 8 D, 7 R Primary Aug 3
Possibly vulnerable:
MD-01 (D)
MA-10 (D) (but probably not)
MI-01 (D)
MI-02 (R)
MI-03 (R)
MI-07 (D)
MI-09 (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
FEC
and my previous diaries.
District: MD-01
Location Eastern MD, bordering DE; plus most of the shore of the Chesapeake map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Frank Kratovil (D)
VoteView 242
First elected 2008
2008 margin 49-48 over Andy Harris (less than 3,000 voes)
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Republicans: Andy Harris, who lost in 2008, but narrowly; Rob Fisher, John Roberts, a libertarian and a write in candidate (see comments)
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable. Per Crisitunity's index the 5th most vulnerable Democrat. Kratovil has just over $1 million COH, Harris an impressive $700 K, Ghrist little, no info on Romblad. Kratovil seems to fit here, but Harris almost won in a year that was bound to be better for Democrats.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: MD-02
Location The western shore of the Chesapeake, plus odd bits farther west map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Dutch Ruppersberger (D)
VoteView 177
First elected 2002
2008 margin 72-25 over Richard Matthews
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 60-39
Bush margin 2004 45-54
Current opponents Many, please see comments.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe.
District: MD-03
Location An odd shaped district, including Annapolis map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative John Sarbanes
VoteView 102.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin 70-30 over Thomas Harris
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents John Kidler, Ryan Ludick, Michael Miller, John Rea. Republicans Greg Bartosz, Thomas Defibaugh Sr, Josh Dowlut, Thomas E. "Pinkston" Harris, Jim Wilhelm. Libertarian Jerry McKinley. Constitution Party Alain Lareau.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Sarbanes has over $750K COH The Republicans have raised little.
District: MD-04
Location Another odd shaped district, including area to the north and east of DC map
Cook PVI D + 31
Representative Donna Edwards (D)
VoteView 19
First elected 2008
2008 margin 86-13 over Peter James
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 85-14
Bush margin 2004 78-21
Current opponents There is a primary, and then Democrats Kwame Gyamfi, George McDermott, or Herman Taylor.
Demographics 37th fewest Whites, 13th most Blacks
Assessment Safe. Edwards has over $100K COH, the others have little.
District: MD-05
Location Mostly this is the southern part of MD to the west of the Chesapeake map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Steny Hoyer (D)
VoteView 166
First elected 1981
2008 margin 74-24 over Collins Bailey
2006 margin 83-16 (over a Green party candidate)
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 65-34
Bush margin 2004 42-57
Current opponents Democrats Sylvanus G. Bent, Andrew Charles Gall (that's what it takes for a Democrat to run against Steny). Republicans Chris Chaffee, Chris Robbins. Libertarian H. Gavin Shickle
Demographics 28th highest median income; 28th fewest in poverty
Assessment Safe. Hoyer has over $1.5 million CHO, the others have little. It would be nice to have someone more progressive in this solidly Democratic seat, but not likely until Hoyer retires.
District: MD-06
Location The westernmost part of MD, a thin wedge between PA, WV, and VA map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Roscoe Bartlett (R)
VoteView 328
First elected 1992
2008 margin 58-39 over Jennifer Daugherty
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 67-29
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents There's a primary then Andrew Duck or Casey Clark; Duck looks much more progressive to me. In the primary are Dennis B. Janda, Joseph T. Krysztoforski, Steve Taylor, Seth Edward Wilson. There's also a libertarian and a constitution party candidate. See comments.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Clark is outraising not only Duck, but Bartlett as well. That's promising. Bartlett is 83 years old. Duck lost to Bartlett in 2006, and in a primary in 2008. Bartlett has $370K COY, Clark has $70K COH, Duck has little; but most of Bartlett's money is from previous campaigns, Clark is outraising him. Still, this is tough territory for Democrats. Safe for Republicans unless something else happens.
District: MD-07
Location Baltimore and points west map
Cook PVI D + 25
Representative Elijah Cummings
VoteView 77
First elected 1996
2008 margin 80-19 over Michael Hargadon
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 79-20
Bush margin 2004 26-73
Current opponents Democrat Charles U. Smith. Republicans Ray Bly, Frank Mirabile Jr, Michael J. Vallerie; also a libertarian and a write-in, see notes.
Demographics 31st most Blacks
Assessment Safe
District: MD-08
Location North and west of DC, bordering VA map
Cook PVI D + 21
Representative Chris van Hollen (D)
VoteView 105.5
First elected 2002
2008 margin 75-22 over Steve Hudson
2006 margin 77-22
2004 margin 75-25
Obama margin 73-25
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Current opponents Democrats George English, Robert Long, Donald Leo Toker Jr. Republicans Michael Lee Phillips, Bruce Stern, Bill Thomas, Christine Thron
Demographics 17th highest median income
Assessment Safe. van Hollen has an amazing $3 million COH, Hudson has little.
District: MA-01
Location The largest CD in MA, more than half the state, in the west. Bordering NH, VT, NY and CT map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative John Olver
VoteView 11.5
First elected 1991
2008 margin 73-27 over Nate Bech
2006 margin 76-23 (against an independent)
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 35-63
Current opponents Jeffrey Donnelly, possibly Bech again
Demographics 60th fewest Black (1.6%), 71st most Democratic per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe. Olver has $300K COH. No info on Donelly.
District: MA-02
Location Southern MA, bordering CT and RI, from Springfield to Milford map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Richard Neal (D)
VoteView 62.5
First elected 1988
2008 margin unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Current opponents Jay Fleitman and Tom Wesley
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Neal has raised almost a million and spent $400K. Fleitman has almost $3 million (!) COH, the Republicans have little.
District: MA-03
Location MA-03 runs from the middle of the state southeast to Somerset, and borders RI map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Jim McGovern (D)
VoteView 35.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 71-29
Obama margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment No opponent
District: MA-04
Location Runs from New Bedford, on the coast, northwest and then northeast to Brookline and Newton, suburbs of Boston map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative Barney Frank (D)
VoteView 27
First elected 1980
2008 margin 68-25 over Earl Sholley
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 78-22 (against an independent)
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 33-65
Current opponents A primary and then Earl Sholley, Keith Messina or Sean Bielat
Demographics 70th highest income (median = $55K), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), 55th most Democratic per Cook
Assessment Safe. Frank has over $600K COH, the Republicans have little.
District: MA-05
Location Northern MA, bordering NH, including Lowell and Lawrence map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Niki Tsongas (D)
VoteView 93
First elected 2007
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 41-57
Current opponents William Bunker, Jon Golnik, Sam Meas
Demographics 64th fewest Blacks (1.9%)
Assessment Safe. Tsongas has almost $400K COH, the Republicans have little.
District: MA-06
Location The northeast corner of MA, bordering NH and the Atlantic, including Lynn, Salem, and Gloucester. map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative John Tierney (D)
VoteView 32.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 70-30 over Richard Baker
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 70-30
Obama margin 59-41
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents Bill Hudak Jr, Dave Sukoff.
Demographics 50th highest income (median = $58K), 71st fewest Blacks (1.9%), 12th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Tierney has $1.5 million COH, Hudak about $90K, Sukoff has little
District: MA-07
Location Northern and western suburbs of Boston map
Cook PVI D + 15
Representative Edward Markey (D)
VoteView 30.5
First elected 1976
2008 margin 76-24 over John Cunningham
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 74-22
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 33-66
Current opponents Gerry Dembrowski
Demographics 55th highest income (median = $56K), 54th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Markey has over $3 million (!) COH. No info on Dembrowski
District: MA-08
Location Part of Boston, plus Cambridge, Somerville, and Chelsea map
Cook PVI D + 32
Representative Michael Capuano (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 30.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 91-9 (the 9 went to a Socialist)
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 86-14
Bush margin 2004 19-79
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 13th fewest veterans (5.5%), 50th lowest income (median = $39K), 88th fewest Whites (48.9%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment Although Capuano has not formally declared as far as I can tell, and has meager COH, he also has no opponent.
District: MA-09
Location Part of Boston, plus southern suburbs including Braintree and Brockton map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Stephen Lynch (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 2001
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 78-22
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 61-39
Bush margin 2004 36-63
Current opponents No Republican, but there is a primary, and for progressives, it's worth a look. Lynch is in the middle of the Democratic party, but this is a progressive district, and Mac D'Alessandro is a progressive. MORE Democrats, BETTER Democrats.
Demographics 60th highest income (median = $55K), 70th most Democratic
Assessment No Republican opponent. Lynch has over $1 million COH, no info on Mac (as he calls himself) but I like him.
District: MA-10
Location Eastern MA, including Cape Cod and Nantucket, bordering the Atlantic, including Quincy and Hyannis map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Bill Delahunt (D) Retiring
VoteView 39.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 64-29
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 66-34
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Current opponents Democrat: Bill Keating; Republicans: Michael Jones and Jeff Perry
Demographics 32nd fewest people in poverty (5.9%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%) and 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Keating just announced on July 2. He has $120K COH. Jeff Perry has a bit more, but these (like most above) are figures from 3/31.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D. This is Democratic territory, and Keating is not taking things for granted (unlike SOME candidates in Massachusetts recent history!)
District: MI-01
Location The UP of MI, and the northern most part of the lower part map.
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Bart Stupak (D) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 52-45
Current opponents Democrat: Gary McDowell. Republicans: Tom Casperson, Dan Benishek (Tea Party)
Demographics 5th most rural (66.6%), 24th most veterans (16.9%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 30th fewest Blacks (1.0%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Very confused at this point. Benishek has about $150K COH, Casperson has nothing, no info on McDowell, whose campaign just started
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: For want of information: Tossup
District: MI-02
Cook PVI R + 7
Location Western MI, bordering Lake Michigan map.
Representative Pete Hoekstra (R) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents One Democrat: Fred Johnson , at least 4 Republicans: Bill Huizenga, Wayne Kuipers, Jay Riemerma, Bill Cooper
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment This is a fairly Republican district, but it's open. Only Rimersma has raised much, he has about a quarter million COH.
My rating: Likely R
District: MI-03
Location A bit to the southwest of the center of the state, including Grand Rapids map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Vernon Ehlers (R) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-49
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents Republicans: Justin Amash, Bill Hardiman; Democrats: Looks like Henry Sanchez is running
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Obama ran even here. Now that Ehlers is out .... who knows? None of the confirmed candidates has tons of COH
District: MI-04
Location Central MI map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Dave Camp (R)
VoteView 327
First elected 1996
2008 margin 62-36 over Andrew Concannon
2006 margin 61-38
2004 margin 64-38
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Andrew Concannon
Demographics 20th most rural (58.6%)
Assessment Long shot. Camp has over $1 million COH, Concannon has little
District: MI-05
Location Flint and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Dale Kildee (D)
VoteView 149
First elected 1976
2008 margin 70-27 over Matt Sawicki
2006 margin 73-25
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents Rick Wilson and a libertarian
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Kildee has over $700K COH, the others have little.
District: MI-06
Location Southwestern MI, bordering IN and Lake Michigan map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Frederick Upton (R)
VoteView 283
First elected 1986
2008 margin 59-39 over Don Cooney
2006 margin 61-38
2004 margin 65-32
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 82nd most rural (41.7%)
Assessment No opponent.
District: MI-07
Location Central part of southern MI, bordering IN and OH, including Battle Creek map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Mark Schauer (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 49-46 over Tim Wahlberg
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-46
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Tim Wahlberg, Brian Rooney, Marvin Carlson.
Demographics 68th most rural (46%)
Assessment Vulnerable. Crisitunity ranks it the 14th most vulnerable Democratic seat. Schauer barely won in 2008, but that was his freshman year, and he ousted Wahlberg. Schauer has almost $1.5 million COH, Wahlberg about $360K.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Lean D
District: MI-08
Location Lansing and surrounding area map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Mike Rogers (R)
VoteView 335
First elected 2000
2008 margin 56-40 over Robert Alexander
2006 margin 55-43
2004 margin 61-37
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Lance Enderle
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Another increasingly D district, but probably not this year. Rogers has nearly $1 million COH, no info on Enderle
District: MI-09
Location Northern and western suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Gary Peters (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-43 over Joe Knollenberg
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents Paul Welday, Andrew Raczkowski, Gene Talierico, Gene Goodman.
Demographics 23rd highest income (median = $65K), 26th fewest in poverty (5.4%), 88th most veterans (10.6%)
Assessment Peters ousted Knollenberg, so he should be OK, but it's not totally safe. Peters has $1.7 million COH. Welday has raised $260K, Goodman has little; Raczkowski has raised $140K.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Likely D (or better)
District: MI-10
Location Eastern MI, bordering Canada and Lake Huron map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Candice Miller (R)
VoteView 284
First elected 2002
2008 margin 66-31 over Robert Dennison
2006 margin 66-31
2004 margin 69-30
Obama margin
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 35th fewest in poverty (6%), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)
Assessment No opponent.
District: MI-11
Location Far western suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Thaddeus McCotter (R)
VoteView 285
First elected 2002
2008 margin 51-45 over Joseph Larkin
2006 margin 54-43
2004 margin 57-41
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Natalie Mosher
Demographics 37th highest income (median = $59K), 12th fewest in poverty (4.3%)
Assessment McCotter may be beatable; the district is moving to the Democrats. McCotter has nearly $600K COH, Mosher has little.
District: MI-12
Location Northern suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative Sander Levin (D)
VoteView 166
First elected 1982
2008 margin 72-24 over Bert Coppie
2006 margin 70-26
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 65-33
Bush margin 2004 39-61
Current opponents A primary and then Jason McClanahan.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Levin has about $500K COH. No info on McClanahan
District: MI-13
Location Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 31
Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D)
VoteView 62.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 74-19 over Edward Gubicks
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 78-18
Obama margin 84-16
Bush margin 2004 19-81
Current opponents There's a primary, but no Republicans have declared
Demographics 37th lowest income (median = $31K), 19th most in poverty (24.4%), 9th most Blacks (60.5%), 41st fewest Whites (28.9%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment No opponent
District: MI-14
Location Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 34
Representative John Conyers (D)
VoteView 25.5
First elected 1964
2008 margin 92-4 over minor party candidates
2006 margin 85-15
2004 margin 84-16
Obama margin 87-12
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 50th fewest Whites (32.1%), 35th lowest income (median = $36K), 17th most Blacks (61.1%), 18th most Democratic
Assessment No opponent
District: MI-15
Location Southern suburbs of Detroit map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative John Dingell (D)
VoteView 115.5
First elected 1955 (longest serving House member)
2008 margin 71-25 over John Lynch
2006 margin 88% against minor parties
2004 margin 71-27
Obama margin 66-32
Bush margin 2004 38-62
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment No opponent.