Nothing has changed. The GOP is still a Southern regional white people party. From the latest NBC/WSJ poll:
The GOP has a HUGE generic-ballot edge in the South (52%-31%), but it doesn’t lead anywhere else. In the Northeast, Dems have a 55%-30% edge; in the Midwest, they lead 49%-38%; and in the West, it’s 44%-43%.
And there's this:
Consider: 60% believe the current Congress is either below average or among the worst, an all-time high in the survey; the percentage viewing the GOP favorably (24%-46% fav/unfav) is at an all-time low; the numbers for the Democratic Party aren’t much better (33%-44%, and the "very negative" for the Dems matches an all-time high); nearly six in 10 say the country is headed in the wrong direction; and 64% think the U.S. economy hasn’t yet hit rock bottom (“Recovery Summer," anyone?).
Everyone hates everyone in DC, but they still hate Republicans the most. Of course, this doesn't mean we're out of the woods in November. There are plenty of congressional districts in the midwest and west that look more like Alabama than Minneapolis.
But for conservatives expecting the sweeping tidal wave, their own personal unpopularity still could get in the way.
And beyond this November, that unpopularity will team up with their demographic challenges (losing the brown and young votes) to create serious long-term challenges. Republicans don't currently have a viable path toward majority status, and doubling down on their teabagger-fueled nuttery isn't going to turn those things around.
It may be enough to make some decent gains in November, but again, it's a long-term loser.