Democrats are doomed, I tells ya, DOOMED!
That's certainly the narrative that the Beltway press has been selling for more than a year now. Is it true? Is it just a story that has become conventional wisdom through lazy repetition? How could we tell?
The foundation for the DEMZ R D00MED stories generally center around three basic ideas:
- The country is in the grip of anti-incumbent fervor. The electorate are pissed at the state of politics generally and are poised to throw everyone-- regardless of party or policy positions-- to the wolves.
- The economy sucks and therefore the electorate are ready to throw the bums out with little or no consideration for who might replace them.
- The teabaggers are fired up but the Democratic base is angry and disappointed and likely to stay home; spelling a big victory for the GOP.
Well, we now know that #1, The Year of The Anti-Incumbent, is utter bullshit. Now tha the primaries are done we find that 98% of Congressional incumbents were picked by their constituents to run again. Ninety-eight percent. Whew, what a bloodbath.
What about #2? It's hard to say, honestly. People are hurting and pissed at the state of the economy but when you lay what the GOPbaggers say they would actually do about it next to what Dems have done the differences are pretty stark. Even still, I can find no real evidence that anger about the economy makes people more likely to throw out the baby with the bathwater. Further, the narrative seems like bullshit because, well, there's no "because" in it-- it's a syllogism. "Voters angry about the economy will vote out the party in power because...." Because why? We're never told. The presumption is that people will take the time and effort to register, research who the incumbent is, and then vote against them in an brainless angry "ECONOMY BAD, HULK SMASH" tantrum. Does that seem realistic to you?
But it's #3, the "Enthusiasm Gap" story, that I want to reality-check here. This whole theme turns on a handful of polls that show a gap between registered Democratic voters and likely Democratic voters.
Sadly, this theme seems to have infected Left Blogistan more than any of the others. Have a peek at the diary list: every third post seems to be an admonition not to stay home or someone else's proud announcement that they aren't staying home. Okay, then. But, really, who said anything about staying home, exactly? Do you know anyone who has explicitly advocated staying home, or anyone who has said they would? I've seen a few people who've threatened that Dems better do X or Y or "people will stay home" but that's not the same thing.
We've all (and yes, I've been guilty, too) been ranting at this supposedly irresponsible faction that is threatening to take their ball and go home-- but who are they, exactly? We've swallowed whole that the Drop Out Caucus exists, but I don't see any actual evidence that they do. Mostly what I see are people who are frustrated by the slow pace of change who also understand that nothing good will happen if the GOP retakes control.
In other words, I think the whole "Enthusiasm Gap" narrative is bullshit, just like the other doom-and-gloom narratives.
So, in the interest of being reality-based (and with the understanding that online polls are not really scientific) I'd like pose the following question: Do you plan to vote in Nov. or do you plan to stay home? If you vote in the poll, please consider leaving a comment to explain why or why not.