As we reach midweek, we get another day of numerical downpours, with another 28 polls added to the mix today. CNN/Opinion Research provides a pretty sizeable dollop of data (seven polls), and the results bring new relevance to Sunday's discussion about the gap between registered and likely voters. If, as was the trend in both 2006 and 2008, registered voter screens come closer to the mark on Election Day, Democrats may not be doomed, after all.
In other polling news, someone polls Michigan's gubernatorial race again (and gets a pretty similar outcome), while two internal polls out today are bound to raise an eyebrow or three.
All this (and more!) in the Wednesday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
AR-Sen: Ipsos/Reuters poll--Boozman leads by double digits
It has been months since Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln has even been within single digits of Republican challenger John Boozman, let alone leading the race. The latest polling contribution from Reuters/Ipsos does nothing to reverse the trend, giving Boozman a fourteen-point lead over Lincoln (53-39). In a sign of how inhospitable Arkansas has become for Democrats, the pollsters asked whether Bill Clinton's support for Lincoln would weigh into their decision. More voters said it would make them less likely to vote for Lincoln that those that said it would make them more likely. Arkansas has become increasingly ugly for Democrats, and Lincoln's flirtations with "Me Too" conservatism have clearly done nothing to save her.
CA-Sen: SurveyUSA confirms movement to Boxer, modest lead
Even in a year where their forecast for Democrats has been downright depressing, SurveyUSA is seeing a Democratic surge in the Golden State. They have Democratic incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer now leading GOP challenger Carly Fiorina by six points (49-43), with 6% being allocated to "other" candidates. This confirms polls by PPP and Rasmussen that were released within the past week showing similar movement.
CO-Sen: Who leads? Depends on who's likely...
The first of the CNN/Opinion Research polls takes us to the Rocky Mountains, and the first example of the absurdly wide gaps between poll results based on the registered voters/likely voters dichotomy. Virtually every report on this poll states that Republican Ken Buck enjoys a five-point lead over incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet (49-44). Among likely voters, that is indeed the case. But CNN/ORC (as they did in 2006 and 2008), reports both registered and likely voters results. Among registered voters, the race looks substantially different: Bennet takes the lead, and by three points (47-44).
DE-Sen: O'Donnell bewitched by low poll numbers in CNN poll
One CNN/Opinion Research poll where the LV/RV gap has little impact is in the state of Delaware, where the pollster has Democrat Chris Coons up by double digits no matter which screen is employed. Among likely voters, Coons enjoys a sixteen-point edge over O'Donnell (55-39). In the larger universe of registered voters, a kinda/sorta blowout becomes a genuine blowout, with Coons leading by twenty-five points (59-34). Joining the trend of pollsters rubbing salt in the GOP's wounds, CNN/ORC notes that Mike Castle would be leading Coons had he been the nominee.
PA-Sen: Two polls put Toomey ahead by modest margin
Quinnipiac and CNN/Opinion Research both offer their forecasts of the Pennsylvania Senate race, and the numbers show perhaps a slight bit of improvement for Democrat Joe Sestak. In the Quinnipiac poll that portended doom for Democrat Dan Onorato yesterday, Toomey holds a lead of seven points over Sestak (50-43). What is notable is the margin is unchanged, despite the fact that the Q poll shifted from a registered voter screen to a likely voter screen. What's more, recall that I took notice yesterday with what seems to be a pessimistic likely voter screen by Quinnipiac. The pollster has more Republicans in the sample than Democrats, something that has not happened at least since 1998. If one were to distribute the partisan breakdown according to an even D/R split, the numbers shift noticeably, with Toomey leading by just two points (48-46).
CNN/Opinion Research, meanwhile, sees a narrower race, even with the tighter likely voter screen. Among likely voters, Toomey leads Sestak by a 49-44 margin. However, among the broader class of registered voters, the CNN/ORC poll sees a tie game, with both candidates sitting at 45% of the vote.
WI-Sen: CNN/ORC poll sees wider LV/RV split, with lead dependent on it
Much like in Colorado, the outcome of the Senate race in Wisconsin may well hinge on who is seen as a "likely voter" in November. With the likely voter screen in place, CNN/ORC echoes the pessimism of our own poll conducted this week by PPP. The CNN/ORC poll shows Republican Ron Johnson with a six-point lead over incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold among likely voters (51-45). However, when the poll measures registered voters, the race appears to be quite different, with Feingold actually moving into a very narrow lead (48-46).
THE U.S. HOUSE
AZ-07: Grijalva endangered! Or...well...maybe not
This is a clarion example of the glorified game of telephone that can be the political media. A GOP lobbyist and political pundit goes on local television this weekend and makes the claim that he has seen polling showing that Raul Grijalva is dead even in this bluish district with Republican Ruth McClung. The only problem? According to local officials in both political parties, no such poll exists. That didn't stop a number of prominent political pundits from the right (Jim Geraghty at the National Review, for one) from trumpeting the news with Drudge Siren-esque enthusiasm. The district is not deep-blue (a lot of voters are in the more GOP friendly confines around Yuma), and Grijalva's margin of victory will likely be lessened in this climate. But no one sees the race as a toss-up.
FL-22: Dem internal poll gives Klein lead in high single digits
Courtesy of the crew over at SSP, we get the polling memo from Anzalone Liszt, a Democratic pollster that gives Dem incumbent Ron Klein an eight-point edge over well-funded Republican challenger Allen West (48-40). This is a rematch--Klein beat West by a similar margin in 2008. West released an internal poll earlier in the year claiming a two-point lead for the GOP challenger.
KY-03: Public poll gives Yarmuth big lead in Louisville-based seat
At the end of August, SUSA raised eyebrows with their poll showing the Dem-leaning 3rd district as a toss-up for second-term Democratic incumbent John Yarmuth. Braun Research, crunching numbers for local website CN|2, found a drastically different result in their poll this week. The Braun poll has Yarmuth sitting on a double-digit lead, drawing 53% of the vote to just 30% for GOP nominee Todd Lally.
MA-04: GOP internal poll claims Frank race potentially competitive
This is either a sign that the GOP is truly ascending in the 2010 electoral cycle, or a stunning example of GOP overreach in the polling arena: an OnMessage poll for Republican challenger Sean Bielat claims that Bielat has pulled within ten points of longtime Democratic incumbent Barney Frank. The poll claims that Frank leads Bielat by a 48-38 margin. Frank's campaign countered that their numbers have them leading by more than 20 points, but they did not elaborate further. I'd expect them to, however, and probably very soon.
PA-03: Democrat Dahlkemper trails in new F&M poll
Franklin and Marshall looks at the swing 3rd district in the Keystone State, and they forecast a swing back to the Republicans in the district. The pollsters at F&M give Republican Mike Kelly a six-point advantage (44-38) over Democratic Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, who knocked off longtime GOP Congressman Phil English in the 2008 elections.
WA-09: Retaliatory strike--Dem incumbent drops internal with big edge
It appears obvious that the campaign of Democratic Rep. Adam Smith took notice when SurveyUSA said he was locked in a toss-up with GOP nominee Dick Muri. They almost immediately released an internal poll, courtesy of Benenson Strategies, giving Smith a nineteen-point edge over Muri (54-35). The truth, as often happens, probably lies in-between, as the combined primary vote (on a day where the Senate primary goosed GOP turnout) was Dems 51, GOP 45.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AR-Gov: Dem Governor absolutely safe, according to Reuters/Ipsos
One Democrat who doesn't appear to be prepared for a sweat in November is popular Governor Mike Beebe. The incumbent has defied the rapidly reddening trend in Arkansas, as evidenced by the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, which shows Beebe well out in front of Republican nominee Jim Keet (55-37). This confirms other recent polling, all of which has given Beebe a solid lead over Keet in the race.
CA-Gov: Brown moves into the lead, according to SUSA poll
As they did in the Senate race, SurveyUSA sees the gubernatorial race between Democrat Jerry Brown and gazillionaire Republican Meg Whitman shifting back to the Democrats. Their poll shows Brown sitting at 46%, with the $119 million woman trailing at 43%. Eight percent like someone "other" than the dynamic duo, according to the SUSA poll.
CO-Gov: CNN/ORC confirms a huge Hickenlooper lead in Colorado
The latest CNN/Opinion Research poll confirms two things about the gubernatorial race in Colorado: 1) the support for Republican nominee Dan Maes is cratering and 2) John Hickenlooper appears destined for an easy win in the state. The latest CNN/ORC poll puts Hickenlooper in the lead with 47% of the vote. Tom Tancredo, running on the Constitution Party ticket, runs second at 29% of the vote. Maes now runs third, holding down 21% of the vote. Among registered voters, the margin widens even further, bringing Hickenlooper to the magic 50% barrier.
MI-Gov: Snyder leads Bernero by double digits in MRG poll
Apparently, local TV station WLNS-TV didn't trust the other 60 or 70 polls on the Michigan Governor's race. Therefore, they commissioned local pollster Marketing Resource Group to poll the race. The results, as it happens, show marginal improvement for Democrat Virg Bernero, who has trailed in some polls by over twenty points. The improvement, however, is incremental, meaning that Republican Rick Snyder still enjoys a wide lead (49-31) over Bernero.
NM-Gov: Dueling internals paint disappointing picture for Dem Denish
Two internal polls, conducted in the same week, paint surprisingly similar images of the New Mexico gubernatorial race. This, as it turns out, is bad news for the Democrats. Public Opinion Strategies released a poll from the Right, and found Republican Susana Martinez with a double-digit lead over Democrat Diane Denish (50-40). From the Left, team Denish released an internal poll (courtesy of GQR) showing it to be a five-point race in Martinez's favor (49-44). Again, unless there is a public poll showing you getting smoked, I fail to see the wisdom in releasing internal polling showing you getting beat.
NY-Gov: Post primary surge? Two pollsters show single digit race
This qualifies as a shocker: two new polls out today show Republican Carl Paladino within single digits of Democrat Andrew Cuomo in the high-profile Governor's race. A SurveyUSA poll out tonight claims that Cuomo only leads Paladino by a nine-point margin (49-40). That is only slightly better than the numbers out today from Quinnipiac, which showed Cuomo leading Paladino 49-43. Of course, this could be transient: Paladino no doubt earned a primary bounce, and he is undefined, to say the least.
PA-Gov: Corbett leads by single digits over Onorato, according to CNN
The CNN/Opinion Research poll in the Keystone State stands in contrast to yesterday's Q poll, showing Democrat Dan Onorato still within striking distance over Republican frontrunner Tom Corbett. The CNN/ORC poll shows Corbett leading by eight points among likely voters (52-44), and a tighter five-point lead among registered voters (50-45).
TN-Gov: GOP pickup near certain, according to new gubernatorial poll
Republican Bill Haslam, the wealthy mayor of Knoxville, appears nearly certain to replace Democrat Phil Bredesen in the governor's mansion in Tennessee. Such are the findings of a new poll out today from WSMV-TV, which has Haslam leading Democratic nominee Mike McWherter by thirty-one points (55-24). The state has turned red over the past several cycles, and Haslam has outspent McWherter exponentially, aiding in his large lead.
WI-Gov: Walker leads, but margin depends heavily on voter screen
If you are a fan of polls with likely voter screen, then it would seem that Republican Scott Walker holds a double-digit lead over Democrat Tom Barrett. With the likely voter screen in place, Walker leads Barrett by a 53-42 margin. However, among registered voters, the margin is cut dramatically, with Walker sporting only a three-point lead over Barrett (48-45).
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
A quintet of Rasmussen polls hit the streets today, with no real surprises therein. Maybe Rasmussen confirming the death of the Meg Whitman boomlet in California is newsworthy, but aside from that, the other four surveys reflect a pretty Ras-sie status quo.
AK-Gov: Gov. Scott Parnell (R) 54%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 34%
CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 47%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%
IL-Sen: Mark Kirk (R) 44%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%
ME-Gov: Paul LePage (R) 45%, Libby Mitchell (D) 27%, Eliot Cutler (I) 14%
NY-Sen-A: Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) 58%, Jay Townsend (R) 36%