Hurricane Earl is on his last leg and the remaining part of the forecast up off of Cape Cod and into Nova Scotia is pretty much set in stone. So, this will be a more brief update today, accompanied with a bit of commentary on Hurricane Earl and Northeastern hurricanes in general (the notion, true or false, that the Northeast is "overdue" for a hurricane... with the presumption that Earl will not count, since no one in the Northeast will experience hurricane conditions from Earl)...
Earl is highly unlikely to produce hurricane force winds anywhere. He didn't at Cape Hatteras. His pass to Nantucket, Marthas Vineyard and at least part of Cape Cod will likely be a little closer than he came to Hatteras. And his winds field will spread out, as almost always happens as hurricanes move into northern latitudes. However, he will also be continuing to weaken. Moreover, he has, thankfully, weakened a bit more than expected. This will probably also mean that he'll be a strong tropical storm by the time he landfalls in Nova Scotia... so they're unlikely to see hurricane force winds either. I don't have a problem with the Hurricane Warnings that the National Hurricane Center has left up, nor with the Hurricane Watch that Environment Canada has up for part of Nova Scotia. While hurricane conditions are highly unlikely in any of these areas, IMO (most likely is in Nova Scotia, east of landfall, if Earl can hang onto hurricane status by landfall), a few gusts could hit hurricane force (and many gusts could do so east of landfall in Nova Scotia). Moreover, while the forecast is pretty well set, minor deviations in the "wrong" (i.e., left or stronger) direction could enhance things a bit.
Anyway, here's what Earl looks like now...
...as you can see, he's far degraded from his appearance yesterday. Also, though his center is no longer obvious on this satellite image, you can generally tell that it is east of 75W longitude. Recall, it was near 75W yesterday morning. So, he is now moving east of north, which will ensure a track offshore of Massachusetts. Still, he will likely not "clear" Nova Scotia. Landfall there remains likely. Here's the NHC's track, which I have no issue with...
One good thing about this track is that most of the Bay of Fundy is now on Earl's west side, where northeast and north winds would pull water out of the Bay, rather than driving it into the Bay and funneling it up. So, all the news is good this morning. There will still be nasty weather... tropical storm force conditions... for SE Mass and Nova Scotia, and an outside chance of full-fledged hurricane force conditions over a small part of Nova Scotia. So, this storm should not be taken lightly. But a disaster is not forthcoming.
A bit of commentary on whether or not Earl was overhyped, as so many storms are. I think it's a mixed bag. Some of the major media outlets did their typical, over-the-top ridiculousness. I watched first hand as the Weather Channel declared, two days ago, that this could be the worst hurricane the East Coast has seen in decades! By the use of the word *"could"*, I suppose they weren't lying. There was still some room for error at that time, as discussed here and by the NHC. There were still some ugly "possibilities". But The Weather Channel's declaration was way overplaying this storm. On the other hand, some local media did a great job putting a lid on hype. The headline in my hometown newspaper from southeastern Mass even after Hurricane Warnings were hoisted, was that the area was expected to be spared the brunt of Hurricane Earl. That was pretty level-headed reporting on the storm. And as for whether or not the Hurricane Center overplayed it with their issuances (and maintaining) of Hurricane Warnings in areas almost certain not to get hurricane conditions... I can't blame them either. They need to overwarn a bit as a matter of caution. So, I can't take much issue with what they've done. Perhaps when they made an extension of the warnings from the Cape westward across the rest of southern Massachusetts was unnecessary. But, on balance, I think they've handled this well. Remember also that, behind the scenes, they need to coordinate this with regional emergency management agencies; and sometimes the NHC catches pressure to hoist warnings in areas where they are otherwise not inclined to do so (I witnessed this first hand over the NHC's teleconference during Hurricane Floyd in 1999). Bottom line, some media did their typical wretched overhype job. But some local folks did quite well; and the NHC handled it about as best as possible.
Now, a brief discussion on the Northeast... I would argue that the Northeast U.S. is overdue for a hurricane (I exclude the Maritimes on this not out of U.S. self-centeredness, but because they've had Juan and a few other weaker storms in more recent years, they are not overdue). The term "overdue" is generally an extremely poor term to use when discussing this. In fact, I myself would cringe at anyone saying any area is overdue for any severe weather event. It gives the message that such an event should occur "soon". Yet, it is really just based on a return period, built on very inconsistent occurences. In other words, you could get three hurricanes in a year, one ten years later, one two years later, and one 18 years later. That's 6 in 30 years... a return period of five years. But after five years without one, it would be foolish to say you're "overdue", because it's only a 30 year record and contains a ten and 18 year gap. But here's why the Northeast can be considered "overdue", in my view. Look at the historical record to 1851 (and, yes, records from that long ago are reasonably accurate, since the Northeast was well populated - yes a marginal tropical storm/hurricane may be misclassified one way or the other, but that could go either way, so it's noise):
9/16/1858 a Category 1 struck NY/CT
9/8/1869 a Category 3 hit RI/MA
10/4/1869 a Category 2 hit MA/ME
9/3/1870 an offshore Category 1 brought hurricane conditions to MA
8/19/1879 a Category 1 hit Cape Cod
9/26/1888 a Category 1 clipped Cape Cod
8/24/1893 a Category 1 hit NYC (possibly a Category 2)
10/10/1894 a Category 1 hit NY/CT
9/10/1896 a Category 1 hit SE MA
9/16/1903 a Category 1 hit NJ
8/26/1924 a Category 1 hit Cape Cod
9/21/1938 a Category 3 hit NY/CT
9/15/1944 a Category 3 hit NY/CT
9/7/1953 a Category 1 (Carol) clipped ME
8/31/1954 a Category 3 (Carol) hit NY/CT
9/11/1954 a Category 3 (Edna) hit MA
9/12/1960 a Category 2 (Donna) hit NY/CT
9/10/1969 a category 2 (Gerda) hit ME
8/10/1976 a Category 1 (Belle) hit NY
9/27/1985 a Category 2 (Gloria) hit NY/CT
8/19/1991 a Category 2 (Bob) hit RI/MA
That's 21 storms in just under 160 years, for a return period of under eight years. Excluding the eastern Maine clips, the Cape Cod shaves, the New Jersey hit (since some may debate whether it qualifies as a "Northeast" hit), and Belle (which was barely a hurricane), that still leaves us with 13 strikes by full-fledged over 160 years... or one per 12 years (roughly).
Saying one per "X" years is looking at a return period which, as I said, does not properly define one as being "overdue", given the inconsistency of the occurences of these events. The reason I believe the Northeast is overdue is looking at the gaps between events. The longest gap between the above listed events is 21 years, with the next lowest being 14 years. Yet, it's been 19 years since Hurricane Bob. Excluding the same storms mentioned above, you can find some longer, much longer gaps... like 24 years (1869 to 1893) and 42 years (1896 to 1938) and 25 years (1960 to 1985). So, we can certainly go more than 20 years without a landfalling hurricane in NY/New England. But more than 25 years has only happened once, and only if we exclude the 1903 and 1924 hits. We're at 19 years now without one... plus, we're in an active period. Including the marginal events, the longest historical gap is 21 years; excluding the marginal events, only one historical gap exceeded 25 years. Based on this, yes, I would say the Northeast is "overdue". I would be surprised, since we're in another active cycle, if we could surpass the 25 year historical gap (the 42 year gap occurred during a quiet cycle). So, sometime over the next several years, I expected a Northeast hurricane. Because of their infrequent occurrence, I wouldn't dare pinpoint a year... it could be this year, it would be next, it could be five years from now. It's really just a big roll of the dice... I'm just not sure how many times we can roll the dice until it comes up snake eyes.