The President has two years to get their agenda done. Then their party takes losses in the mid-terms and the opposition claims the country has rejected them. The president wins re-election and has another two year mandate.
There was a West Wing episode where Vinick and Santos are both pissed off because Bartlett is sending troops into Kazikstan inbetween the Chinese and Russians. Anyway the point is they're both upset because it will eat up a lot of their post win mandate with both focus and money.
Obama had a near economic collapse, and two wars.
He also had to use some of his political capital on the stimulus just to get it passed. Remember the GOP held up Franken for five months, so they needed to get a Republican on board.
So he got 70% of what he wanted in the Stimulus, 70% in the HCR, 70% financial reforms, while doing a TON of off the radar stuff that Democrats/Progressives should love, while the GOP was focused on the big ticket battles. If he would have picked a fight wanting 100% of the stimulus, or 100% of what he wanted for HCR he would have burned up all his capital and no promise he would have got it when you consider Lieberscum campaigned with McCain/Palin and Nelson is a sonuvabitch (he's take it as a compliment I'm sure). Many in the Senate saw Obama as the newbie Junior Senator from Illinois to begin with - the Senate is an ol'boys club where seniority is paramount.
His capital is gone now - folks want more big ticket items, but he can't get anything passed. If you want more big ticket items you need to keep the ratio's in congress or add seats. Otherwise the second two years is all about managing what he did in the first two. Working to implement HCR, Financial reforms, get out of Iraq completely, draw down in Afghanistan etc.
Looking it the bald politics of it, Obama actually is better off losing the House because then he has an excuse for not doing anything (folks don't realize he has no political capital). And then come 2012 he can run on both what he did in his first two years and against the GOP for blocking everything the second two years.
Also how will a GOP House Majority Function? Will the Bachmann's, Issa's, Barton's, Kings, Foxx' push the agenda? And if they try, will the more moderate's go along for their shenanigans? And if they do - No chance it would get through the Senate. A GOP House would expose the tea party vs Old GOP fractures. And the House is up again in two years, a Presidential year.
If Dems hold the House and Senate, Obama will still be able to get little done, and what he does will have to be very centrist in order to get the 5-6 Senate GOP votes that will be necessary so a lot of folks on the left will not be happy.
You look at which seats the DSCC is getting involved with. Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, and I suspect sooner than later Ohio, and will clandestinely support Crist. They seem to be sitting out NC, DE, Indiana, Louisiana, Illinois for the most part. There really is no rhyme or reason unless you look at the Republican candidate - they're going after Toomey, Paul, Blunt, Angle, Portman and Rubio because they are the ideologues. On the other hand Burr is a nothing, Coats is damaged goods, Vitter is damaged goods, Kirk is a moderate, Castle is a moderate.
This senate class of 2010 will be sitting for the rest of President Obama's presidential term. The White House is focused on keeping the ideologues out, content to allow the moderates and non-factors in. The White House is attempting to mould the Senate they're going to have to deal with for the rest of the Administration. It's interesting that the DSCC and the Rove outfit are essentially battling over the same seats.
So if you hate him now, you're going to really hate him in 2012 because the second two years it's going to be all bi-partisanship. Should he win re-election in 2012 (which will be made easier with a GOP House in 2010), he'll have another mandate and will take on a big ticket legacy item. I'm hoping he'll choose to go after the M-I-C and defense spending, along with tweaks to fix any issues with HCR and Financial Reforms.