Let's start with a picture.
Those who know better than we do have been telling us that inflation is under control. Yeah, unless you spend most of your money on food, like the poor in this country do, and the vast majority of people in the Third World do. In the poorer countries of the world, the spikes in food prices (and the economic crisis) have been attributed to increased instability and unrest, including in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and the rest of the Arabian Peninsula, Libya, and many other places we hear much less about in the U.S.
The current increase, which has now surpassed that of 2008, has been attributed to use of food grains for producing fuel and bad weather conditions in a number of important growing regions, including Russia, where an historic heatwave and drought took place last summer.
So how is the outlook for this year? Well, we don't know about the northern hemisphere summer season yet, but some areas do winter wheat planting, and there are some climate signals that tell us something now about what kind of short-term climate anomalies are to come. We can then project what range of things might happen to crop yields in at least some critical regions.
More below.
Climate Conditions in the U.S.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center monitors soil moisture conditions and drought on an ongoing basis in the continental U.S. They report on the internet weekly; the most recent was last Tuesday, 15 March 2011. A graphic reflecting conditions on the date is shown below. Areas with drought are marked starting in yellow for abnormally dry conditions (D0 designation) and as high as exceptional drought (D4 designation). Areas with significant impacts are outlined with black contours. The letters "A" and "H" denote the type of drought: agricultural and hydrological, respectively. Most areas are affected by both.
We can see that much of the southern part of the U.S. is affected by varying degrees of drought from AZ to VA. There is severe to extreme drought over the CO high plains, adjacent areas of AZ and NM, parts of TX and OK (where the winter wheat is grown), LA, and parts of AL, much of GA and FL, and a small section of the NC Piedmont.
Climate Forecast for the U.S.: April through June 2011
A number of tools are used to develop a climate forecast for the next month and then three-month periods out to 13 months into the future. These include the current state of the soil moisture (particularly important in the warm season), the forecast for the next eight months from the climate forecast system (CFS), forcing of the atmospheric circulation from the tropical Pacific (El Niño and La Niña) and the forecast for the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, and trends over the past number of years (warming is predominant in many areas during at least some seasons). The CFS predicts the future state of the oceans, including the tropical Pacific, and "feels" feedbacks from any ocean temperature anomalies.
For the CPC forecast, the three-month periods overlap: for example, on 17 March 2011 forecasts were made for April through June 2011, May through July 2011, June through August 2011, and so on. The forecast for April through June 2011 from the Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, MD is below. Areas marked "EC" have equal probability of being in the upper 33%, middle 34%, or lower 33% of past mean monthly precipitation totals (the climate period is now 1971-2000; it will be updated to 1981-2010 in a few months, once data has been quality controlled). Those marked "A" have the largest probability of being above normal in precipitation; contours start at 33% and then go to 40% and at 10% increments to 90%. This is shown with increasingly deep green shading and labels on the contours. Here we only have a small area with a greater-than-40% chance of being wetter than normal, in the Northern Plains. Drier than normal weather is expected from April through June 2011 from AZ across the southern U.S. to FL, with eastern AZ through southern LA probability of dry weather exceeding 40%. Drier than normal shading is in increasingly deep shades of brown from 33% to 40% and then 10% increments up to 90%.
The temperature forecast for April through June 2011 is next. The same general method is used to depict "EC", "A", and "B" (equal chances of all categories, >33% chance of above and >33% chance of below normal temperatures). Blue shading and red shading are used the same way as for the precipitation for below and above normal temperatures, respectively.
Colder than normal weather is expected across the Pacific Northwest to the western Great Lakes, while the same general areas expecting dry weather, from AZ to the Carolinas, is expected to have warmer than normal temperatures. The expected warmth if it verifies, would exacerbate any dryness through increasing evaporation and evapotranspiration by plants from the soil.
Interpretation of the Climate Outlook By the Drought Monitor
Based on the forecast by the Climate Prediction Center, a forecast is issued for the next three months. They predict areas where drought will develop (yellow), where it will persist (brick red), where it will be relieved (green), and where there is expected to be some relief (striped green and brick red). I've added that forecast below.
Note that about a third of the nation will develop or continue drought from the Southwest to the Southeast Piedmont. This is a normal consequence of the currently diminishing La Niña in the tropical Pacific, and is the result of a weaker southern storm track than usual. Winter precipitation and soil moisture anomalies often "set the tone" for the following spring and summer. Even normal precipitation subsequent to the dry winter season will still result in agricultural problems in those areas. Fears are that the winter wheat harvest will be harmed by the development of drought in KS and its persistence to the south. To the north in the Dakotas and adjacent Canadian Prairie provinces, wet conditions may delay planting of spring wheat.
Other Breadbasket Regions of the World: It isn't just the weather
Weather has been (or is expected to be) poor in other areas of the world as well. Canada just lowered its forecast harvest of wheat because of the anticipation of flooding from heavy winter snows in the Red River Valley of the north. This may affect the U.S. Dakotas as well. Australia had flooding during their summer, particularly in Queensland, while drought continued in Western Australia state, where farmers are now competing with miners for underground water from aquifers. China's winter wheat growing region also experienced a drought which is affecting yields.
The long and short of it: don't expect any relief in food prices. Between problems with the weather, with financing of farmers, and speculators driving up prices, it may get really ugly out there, both for food supplies and for those who depend on them.