It has been a while since I have done a diary, but here goes.
My assumptions for the diary:
The Republicans retaine control of the State Senate
Each party loses one seat, net.
The national parties put enough pressure on Gov Cuomo that he agrees to sign
Nobody likes the leaked map the Courts draw.
The downstate district the Democrats lose is CD09
The Democrats and the Repuclicans agree that CD25, presently held by a Republican, and CD23, presently held by a Democrat would be traded for each other.
CD24, presently held by the Republicans, is dismembered, and the R incumbent finds a new home in the new CD23.
CD23, presently held by a Democrat, is only sustainable by combining the most Democratic parts of CD23 and CD20, which would not be allowed without a quid pro somewhere else. Adding Syracuse to CD23 to keep in Democratic would mean defeat for the present incumbent, Owen, in the primary.
I have retained, as far as possible, the current numbers of districts to facilitate comparison. I am aware that they would be renumbered. The old CD29 is, however, renumbered CD24; and the old CD28 is renumbered CD09 since the old numbers are no longer availeable.
Detailed demographic info is availeable for each district is at the right hand of each district map. I will not necessarily repeat it. I will add the Obama/McCain numbers for the old district in the comment for each district.
CD01
Old Obama 52, McCain 48
Marginally more D. at 52.6 Obama
CD02
Obama/McCain old district 56/43
More Democratic.
I made a major change in configuration to enable CD02 to reach the NYC areas for more voters. The Republican incumbent of CD03 no longer lives in CD03, but he has a likely Republican district to run in.
CD03
Old Obama McCain 47/52
The incumbent would have to move, but his district would move rightward a point
CD04
Old Obama/McCain 58/41
Little electora change
CD05
old Obama/McCain 63/36
D percentage went up 2-3 points. Major new areas added, but with the population movemene the incumbent is fortunate to survive at all.
Takes in major portions of the dismembered CD090. Probably hopes that the placeholder of CD09 does not run against him.
CD06
Old Obama/mcCain 89/11
the loss of 3 points D will not significantly affect the electoral politics. Managed 50% black
CD07
Old Obama/McCain 79/20
Lost 6 points in vote. A major change out of the Bronx into Queens, but I have read comments that that would not be unwelcome to the incumbent. Takes a major portion of the dismembered CD09
CD08
Old Obama/McCain 74/26
Takes in a major portion of dismembered CD09 from South Brooklyn. The area taken over went for McCain in a major way, but that may be a temporary swing.
CC10
Old Obama/McCain 91/9
Takes in a substantial portion of the old CD09. The drop in D votes wont hurt.
Black 56.7%
CD11
Old Obama/McCain 91/9
The drop in Obama vote will not hurt. 55.1% black
CD12
Old numbers Obama/McCain 86/13
Obama numbers unchanged.
Hispanic 50.8%
CD13
Old Obama/McCain 49/51
I could bring up the McCain numbers to 55% by bringing in areas just to the east of the present Brooklyn areas in CD13, but decided that the votes were not stable for the Republican party, and relied upon the current area.
CD14
Old O/M 78/21
moved more into Manhattan, taking up the slack that CD08 move more into Brooklyn made available.
CD15
old O/M 93/6
went down somewhat in D votes. Probably wont hurt Rangel
CD16
old O/M 95/5
The one percent reduction in the Obama vote is unlikely to hurt the incumbent
CD17
old O/M 72/28
6 points less Democratic The incumbent loses Rockland County entirely. I suspect the white percent of the population may have had significant decreases also. No ethnic population has a majority, split pretty equally between white, black, and Hispanic.
CD18
Takes in more of Rockland County.
old O/M 62/38
CD19
old O/M 51/48
The 3 point reduction in Obama vote may be critical to the survival of this freshman Republican
I left only the portions of Westchester County with her residence and a corridor northwards in CD19
CD20
Old O/M number 51/48
An improvement in the McCain numbers helps this freshman member of Congress
Moves to take in portions of the old CD24, which has been dismembered
CD21
old O/M 58/40 Unchanged
Lost the heavily R areas to the west, and added some more moderate/tossup areas to the north. Basically an Albany district
CD22
old O/M 59/39
Obama vote went down two points which may be critical. Lost D areas of Tompkins county, which was needed to support D districts further west. Added western Duchess county areas, but I dont know if they are as reliable for the Ds, but they are close to the core Ulster County are of the D incumbent.
Also added modenate/lean areas to the west. At 57% it should be Likely Democratic still.
CD23
Old O/M 52/47
Obama's numbers went up one point, which probably is not enough to save this D representative.
Lightning has struck for him twice, and he will need a third strike.
Added Oneida, which is the home of the current representative for CD24[R]. Since CD24 has been dismembered, that individual is looking for a new home.
CD25
old O/M 56/43
Moved up Obama a partial point.
Presently held by a Republican, who should be defeated. This natural district loses R areas east of Rochester, and adds tossup/lean areas to the east
This is part of the trade I discussed in the initial discussion, where the shaft is given to the R incumbent of CD25 and the D incumbent of CD23, in order to retain natural districts in northern NY and Syracuse areas.
CD26
Old O/M 46/52
New O/M 57/41
major surgery was necessary to retain the Democratic representative. The new district is the old configuration of CD28, combining Buffalo with Rochester.
The incumbent will hope that 1: Slaughter will run in the new CD09 to the east,
and 2: that another Rochester politician will not try to take her on.
CD27
Old O/M 54/44
A 3 point improvement in Obama numbers, but mostly unchanged.
CD09
the old CD09 was dismembered in NYC, so the number was reused for the old CD28.
Major changes: Loses Buffalo and rural areas to the west
Loses Western/Northern Rochester
Gains rural counties, moderate or lean R, in midwestern NY
Gains Tompkins County, a major D vote
old O/M 69/30, new 57/41
From safe D, becomes likely D, with new populations. Incumbent Slaught may well want to retire or run in the new CD26, which covers much of her old district, tho she does not live there.
CD24, the old CD29
old O/M 48/51 [from CD29] new CD24 56/43
Retains the southern tier counties, but swings up to take the most R areas of the old CD26 and loses the more swingy counties it had to the NE.
Summary:
D: loses CD09 thru dismemberment
R: loses CD24 thru dismemberment
D: loses CD23 because not shored up
R: Loses CD25 because not shored up.
The old incumbent of CD24 could find a new home in the new CD23, which has a D incumbent.
Apparently a plan is in play that the new D incumbent of CD09 will not run when it is dismembered.
The old R incumbent of CD25 hopefully will lose to the D's as a result of not being shored up.
The old D incumbent of CD23 needs lightning to strike[again] to win a third time.
A number of the districts I have constructed are in the 56% Obama region, which is likely or safe D. It is possible that in a Republican year this would be a gerrymander, but in a Republican year the R's would hold Congress anyway.. Likely D districts would be useful in a D year in forming a governing coalition, not relying on a bunch of blue-dog Democrats for legislation
I expect that the NY legislature will wait to the last moment, just to see if the situation changes in the R-controlled State Senate. it only takes one retirement of a R State Senator, and a win by D to then control the trifecta.
A D dominated redistricting could save CD23 for the Democratic column, destroy the R base in CD19, and reconfigure CD13 to a likely D status.
This would leave the R districts of CD24 [southern tier], CD03 [King] and, possibly, turn CD20 into a lean or tossup district. But thats another map, which I am still working on.