Rationale:
New York is losing two seats.
When losing more than one seat, New York tries to split the difference between political parties. Last time, Rep LaFalce (D) was merger with Rep. Slaughter (D), and Rep Gilman (R) lost out. I merged two Democrats and two Republicans. I think the Democrats will want to keep Rep. Hochul and the rest of their Upstate delegation, and I think the GOP will want to keep Rep. Turner and the rest of their NYC/Long Island delegation. So, that makes six seats to preserve upstate and three to preserve downstate.
Furthermore, this has meant one Upstate and one Downstate seat. In the 2000s, one came from Western New York and the other from the lower Hudson Valley. This time, it is one in the Lower Hudson Valley and one in Long Island. I have discovered that for me to be truly satisfied with a map (i.e., I like the lines), I need to merge Rep. Gibson and Rep. Hayworth together. I know this means the lower Hudson Valley has lost representation since the 2000s redistricting, but I see no clean-looking way of dropping an Upstate seat. You can argue, though, that Central New York lost a representative, but either Hayworth or Gibson loses out, because I removed Gibson’s loop around Albany. That is the way I see it. The other seat comes from Long Island. This area has had population for 5 seats since the 1990s redistricting, but it no longer does. Four seats fit nicely here, and so I merger Rep Ackerman with Rep. McCarthy. Amazingly, NYC loses no representation, so it keeps the same number of representatives as it had in the 1990.
All seats are within 100 of ideal. I think I’ve done a solid job, after putting VRA in, of keeping communities of interest in tact.
Downstate (1-16)
NY-1: Bishop (51.4%-47.6% Obama-McCain) Still a swing district.
NY-2: Israel (54.9-44.3) I think this is the same or better than what Israel represents now. As a major player in Democratic fundraising, I suspect the Democrats will want him protected as much as possible.
NY-3: King (48.5-50.6) I tried to pack some Republican voters in here to protect Israel. Should still vote for King.
NY-4: McCarthy vs Ackerman (58.5-40.8) Much of the Democratic advantage in this district is from Queens, so unpacking him seemed too hard to figure out without districts looking, in my mind, ugly. I think McCArthy would need to run a great campaign as much of this is Ackerman’s territory.
NY-5: Meeks or his successor (82.6-17.1) The panhandle makes this district VRA compliant (VAP: 52.5% Black). If it weren’t for VRA, I would have kept this district solely in Queens.
NY-6: Crowley (64.6-34.6) Solely Queens now for the Queens County Democratic Chair. This is an Asian-opportunity district as that groups VAP is 35.8%. Whites are 39.1%, Hispanics at 19.3%. All others are 5.6%.
NY-7: Nadler (86.4-12.6) Now solely a Manhattan Borough district, which I thought I read/heard that Nadler wants.
NY-8: Turner (45.9-53.3) After I drew the VRA districts (three more next), I had southwestern Kings County and Richmond County. This area is almost enough for two whole seats, and there’s a bunch of Republican voters here. I packed most of them in to Turner’s seat. By doing this, I reinforced a lot of other districts as the current NY-9 has had a major change in voting patterns, swinging moreso to the Republicans than others.
NY-9: Townes (91.9-7.6) I think Townes and Clarke in 10 need to recruit more Blacks to move or these seats might undergo retrogression in the next redistricting round. This version of NY-9 has a VAP of 51.0% Black.
NY-10: Clarke (91.6-7.8) Not much different from the above district, this one’s VAP is 51.3% Black.
NY-11: Velázquez (81.9-17.4) The first of three Hispanic districts (VAP: 54.8%), I cleaned it up to remove its tail to southwestern Kings County.
NY-12: Grimm (49.2-50.0) In packing Turner, I made this Staten Island district swingy. I do not know if that reflects voting patterns of the district in the past, but it made sense to me to clean up its part of Brooklyn.
NY-13: Maloney (82.0-17.2) No real change here, and no real comments to offer either.
NY-14: Rangel (90.0-9.5) I read in an article from a NYC-based blog or paper that this U-shaped district might be a possibility, and it won’t make Rangel happy. The VAP is 56.3% Hispanic, and could easily elect a Bronx-based Hispanic candidate. If so, then I won’t mourn the loss of Rangel from the NY delegation.
NY-15: Serrano (91.0-8.7) More Democratic than Rangel’s, but less Hispanic (VAP: 55.7% Hispanic). I don’t think there is any difference asides from geography.
NY-16: Engel (70.3-29.1) Still White plurality (VAP: 42.7%), but cleaned up a bit. All of Yonkers instead of snaking through Westchester County to much of Rockland.
Upstate (17-27)
NY-17 (Lowey) (59.0-40.2) No real change to discuss.
NY-18: Gibson vs Hayworth (50.6-48.1) This seat has much territory that traditionally elects Republican representatives but has no shame voting for Democratic presidential candidates. This district has to cross the Hudson somewhere, so I decided to cross into Orange County. Given how Hayworth handled her constituents during the cleanup of Hurricane Irene, I suspect she would lose the primary against Gibson. A largely rural district-I think I have much the the rural parts of Westchester County here.
NY-19: Hinchey (56.7-41.9) Ithaca is sent to Syracuse to strengthen the Democratic party there. Besides that, no major changes.
NY-20: Hanna (46.2-51.9) No longer Central New York giving Albany the finger, this district looks like the old NY-23 from the 1990s. This seat is essentially every county in Eastern New York that voted for McCain minus Jefferson, Lewis, and Hamilton. (Yeah, I know Hanna no longer represents northern Herkimer County, but that’s more Adirondacks anyway.)
NY-21: Tonko (57.8-40.4) Still the Capital Region, just with more Saratoga County and less Schoharie County.
NY-22: Owens (52.8-45.5) Still the Adirondacks, everything north of the Mohawk River Valley. Still swingy.
NY-23: Buerkle (59.6-38.6) Bye bye, Buerkle! OK, that just sounded like it could be a celebratory jingle for the Democrats of Syracuse, as this seat unifies the more Democratic parts of Central New York (Onondaga, Tompkins, and Madison Counties) together. I think the Democratic party should not worry about having Buerkle run a primary against another sitting representative as this district has none of her supporting cast (i.e., Wayne County).
NY-24: Reed (45.7-52.8) Like Hanna, this area is quite Republican. Every county in Western New York that voted for McCain is here but Wyoming, Allegany, and Cattaraugus. (I am using this district as the dividing line for Western New York; everything to the east is not Western New York. This area had 5 seats in the 1990s.)
NY-25: Slaughter (58.5-40.1) Slaughter wanted a Monroe County district, so here she has one: all of Monroe County save eastern Webster. Be careful what you ask for, though. I am under no illusion that Slaughter could hold this seat against a charismatic Republican who holds a county-wide office in Monroe County; I think such a race would be close. That said, I think this is Slaughter’s seat until she steps down.
NY-26: Hochul (53.1-45.3) I know people will say that I ought to shore Hochul up here, but I disagree. She carried Niagara and Erie Counties, and that was all the votes she needed; Corwin’s victories in the rest of the district could not have her catch up to Hochul. With all of Niagara County and the northtowns of Erie County (including all of Buffalo north of the Kensington and Scajaquada Expressways), this should be an easy hold for her.
NY-27: Higgins (55.4-43.0) Higgins gets most of the old NY-23 (some wards in Buffalo are lost and some towns in Erie County are shed) and gets swingy Cattaraugus County and rather Republican Allegany County, and diehard Republican Wyoming County. The presidential voters in those three counties together barely equalled Chautauqua County, which voted for Obama.