I've written before of my frustration with incumbent-protection maps, particularly in states where Republicans are over-extended (holding many more marginal seats than Democrats are). New York is a prime example as the conventional wisdom holds that an incumbent-protection map is the most likely outcome with the Senate barely controlled by Republicans, giving them a seat at the redistricting table. The awful thing about this is that an incumbent protection map would probably lock in a 20-7 map when we could easily draw a 26-1 map if we had complete control. The following is not a fantasy Dem map like those offered in Texas or Ohio. This is a very real possibility if New York accepts court-drawn maps next year (for Congress and the legislature), which should lead to us taking back the state Senate and being able to draw our own map for the following year. It is crucial that we not allow the GOP to gerrymander the state Senate, or the congressional map to protect their incumbents.
I came at this with several goals. First off, I wanted a strong Democratic map without going full baconmander (no offense to the diarist in question, that map was awesome!) Still, I wanted something that New York Dems could actually draw and that the incumbents would be able to live with. Obviously, you can't please every incumbent while still going on the offensive (as we found in Maryland), but there are limits and I think this map is well within those. Every Democratic incumbent should be able to hold their seats fine, both in the primary and in the general. And seven Republicans would likely be defeated. Republicans will still have outside chances at a few Democratic districts but we would only have to worry in the worst years. So here's the overall map:
We'll start with Long Island and work our way up.
NY-01 (Blue): Tim Bishop (D). Virtually the same, though he swaps a few precincts with NY-02 to bump him up a tiny bit and he should be safe even in 2010 years. Obama/McCain 52/47 (old 52/48).
NY-02 (Green): Steve Israel (D). Begins the cracking of NY-03. Gives up some swingy territory in the middle to take in all of conservative southwest Suffolk from Peter King. Israel should still be quite safe though. O/M 54/45 (old 56/43).
NY-03 (Purple): Carolyn McCarthy (D) and Peter King (R). Taking out King is no easy feat. He is very popular with his voters and outperforms other GOP candidates in his district. So I chopped up his district between four other Democrats. He now lives in a compact south Nassau district that McCarthy should be more familiar with and which strongly favors a Democrat. O/M 56/43 (old NY-03 47/52, old NY-04 58/41). From here on, every district drops by a number.
NY-04 (Red): Gary Ackerman (D). Usually targeted for elimination in bipartisan maps, he can breathe a sigh of relief as he at least has somewhere to run now. Unfortunately, due to the cracking of King's seat, his runs further into super-Dem parts of Queens to make up for taking in mostly Republican precincts all the way into Nassau to help protect McCarthy and Israel. O/M 58/41 (old 63/36). Still retains a significant Asian population at 27%.
NY-05 (Gold): Greg Meeks (D). Moves further east into Nassau to accommodate the loss of a seat. Takes some of the more Republican parts of Nassau to protect McCarthy and help take out King, as well as the African-American parts of Nassau for VRA purposes. O/M 78/21 (old 89/11). African-American 49% (old 54%), which I believe is legal as the rest of the district is very diverse (23% White, 15% Hispanic, 8% Asian) and would not vote as a bloc to deny them their choice of representative.
NY-06 (Teal): Joe Crowley (D). Shifts east a bit in Queens as other districts expand. Gives up some of the Bronx so that it can expand out to grab conservative north Nassau, further cracking King's old territory. O/M 64/35 (old 79/20). Keeps a white plurality: 40% White, 30% Hispanic, 19% Asian, 9% Black (old 45, 36, 13, 19).
NY-07 (Brown): Jerrold Nadler (D). Maintains its Manhattan base, but shifts its water-contiguous Brooklyn tail to grab lean-GOP precincts from the Staten Island district, beginning the process of flipping that seat. It actually gets more Dem though as it drops even higher performing Republican precincts to the east (that will be eaten by the VRA seats instead). O/M 79/21 (old 74/26).
NY-08 (Orange): Bob Turner (R). I actually drew his house on the Rockaway Peninsula into Meek's district (lol) but his options aren't better here either in the successor to Anthony Wiener's old seat. Gives up the 80% McCain precincts to neighboring seats in Brooklyn, instead taking in more Democratic areas around Coney Island and elsewhere. With that problem taken care of, the Queens part of this seat shifts eastward and pushes into Nassau to help crack Republicans. O/M 62/37 (old 55/44). This formerly 71% white district becomes minority-majority as well: 47% W, 22% A, 19% H, 8% B.
NY-09 (Cyan): Ed Towns (D). Nearly the same district, but extends a bit further south to grab a few GOP precincts. O/M 86/14 (old 91/9). 52% Black (old 63%) which is unavoidable due to district expansion and stagnant population. There aren't enough African-Americans in Brooklyn for two 60%+ Black seats anymore.
NY-10 (Pink): Yvette Clarke (D). Gives up insanely Democratic (but very white) Park Slope to the Staten Island district, and instead moves southwest to help breakup Grimm's good Brooklyn precincts. O/M 83/17 (old 91/9). 53% Black (old 61%). Again this is unavoidable even in an incumbent-protection map.
NY-11 (Light Green): Nydia Velázquez (D). Mostly the same, expands a bit into Queens to grab newer Hispanic precincts to make up for gentrification in her old areas. O/M 84/15 (old 86/13). 47% Hispanic (old 48% but that number fell significantly over the past decade). Like other VRA New York seats, the rest of the district is very diverse and they would not vote as a bloc to deny Hispanics their choice.
NY-12 (Cornflower Blue): Mike Grimm (R). Drops lean-GOP and swingy parts of Brooklyn to instead shoot up north to grab extremely Democratic, but majority white West Brooklyn (which shouldn't be in the VRA seats). We're talking 75% white precincts that voted 95% for Obama. Needless to say Grimm can't win this seat. O/M 59/40 (old 49/51).
NY-13 (Salmon): Carolyn Maloney (D). Not much happens here. Expands a bit as all the others do. O/M 80/20 (old 78/21).
NY-14 (Lime Green): Charles Rangel (D). Simply not enough population on Manhattan to stay entirely within. So it pushes into the western portions of the Bronx. O/M 95/5 (old 93/6). 53% Hispanic, 32% Black (old stats 48% Hispanic, 35% Black). He should still be safe in a primary (his north Manhattan base still accounts for 70% of the district), but when he retires this will favor a Hispanic representative.
NY-15 (Orange): José Serrano (D). Moves a bit further north and east as it is pushed out by NY-14. O/M 91/9 (old 95/5). 62% Hispanic, 24% Black (old 63 H, 36 B).
NY-16 (Pink): Eliot Engel (D). Loses some of the heavily minority portions of south Westchester and Spring Valley in Rockland, and instead pushes into GOP precincts in Orange County. O/M 63/36 (old 72/28). 50.4% White.
NY-17 (Spring Green): Nita Lowey (D). Gives up Democratic towns like Ossining and Peekskill in Westchester County, instead expands to take in the rest of Westchester and even most of conservative Putnam County. O/M 60/39 (old 62/38).
NY-18 (Yellow): Nan Hayworth (R). I've actually drawn her house in Mount Kisco into Lowey's district, but she retains more of her constituents here. However, this district now sends arms south to grab extremely Democratic precincts. I doubt she could win this. O/M 56/44 (old 51/48). The district is now only 66% White (old 88%).
NY-19 (Cornflower Blue): Chris Gibson (R). Loses conservative Greene and Delaware Counties to Tonko's seat, instead now takes in all of the liberal parts of western Renssalaer county. Also pushes South to grab Poughkeepsie. O/M 55/44 (old 51/48). This should also favor a return to Democratic representation.
NY-20 (Dark Green): Paul Tonko (D). Does the aforementioned swaps with Gibson's seat, gives up most of Montgomery County (but not his home in Amsterdam). O/M 56/42 (old 58/40). Should still be plenty safe for us.
NY-21 (Brown): Maurice Hinchey (D). Loses its tiny parts of Orange and Dutchess Counties and instead pushes out further west, taking in now all of Tompkins and Tioga Counties, as well as sending out arms to grab the Dem-leaning cities of Cortland and Elmira, as well as swingy Corning, which doesn't belong in the coming GOP vote sink. O/M 57/41 (old 59/39). He did have a 5-point re-election last year, but if he can't hold a 57% Obama seat then we need to find someone who can.
NY-22 (Pink): Bill Owens (D). Drops conservative Hamilton and Fulton Counties to the coming GOP vote sink, instead sends out a tendril to grab the Dem-leaning city of Utica, and the swingy towns of Rome and Herkimer from the old NY-24. O/M 53/45 (old 52/47). He won't be 100% safe but if they couldn't get him in 2010, I doubt they will here, especially when the GOP keeps nominating teabaggers. Owens would be a good fit for this seat.
NY-23 (Goldenrod): Richard Hanna (R) and Tom Reed (R). Here it is, the mother of all upstate GOP vote sinks. I went back and forth on the necessity of this (knowing that over the past few elections we won every single upstate seat at least once), but it's clear that failing to concede one seat threatens many more. Reed's was Bush's best in the state, and Eric Massa was in many ways a fluke winner. Mike Arcuri seemed to be a good fit for his district, but he almost lost in 2008 and got beaten convincingly in 2010. So I combined NY-24 and NY-29 to make this, packing as many Republicans as I could in from both of their seats. Reed's home and political base in Corning has been narrowly drawn into Hinchey's, but he would still run here, and I'd say it's a tossup in the primary. O/M 41/57 (old NY-24 51/48, old NY-29 48/51). Very, very safe Republican.
NY-24 (Indigo): Ann Marie Buerkle (R). Instead of going from Syracuse up along the coast to reach into Rochester's conservative eastern suburbs, I sent it more west, grabbing Democratic towns like Auburn, Seneca Falls, Geneva, Canandaigua, and Geneseo. End result, Buerkle was always a fluke winner, and she can't hold this. O/M 57/42 (old 56/43).
NY-25 (Light Pink): Kathy Hochul (D). She ably demonstrated her ability to win a very conservative district against a decent GOP opponent. So she will be quite safe in this Amherst-based district. O/M 54/44 (old 46/52).
NY-26 (Dark Gray): Brian Higgins (D). Expands due to population loss to take in Cattaraugus and half of Allegany County, which are quite conservative, but this is balanced out by taking more of Buffalo as the famous earmuffs pull out. Slight improvement in overall numbers, although unnecessary as they didn't even get close to threatening Higgins last year. O/M 55/43 (old 54/44).
NY-27 (Sea Green): Louise Slaughter (D). Loses the silly earmuff into Buffalo, now becomes a very compact Rochester-based district. As such, there is a significant loss in Democratic performance but Slaughter will still dominate this district. And it helps make Hochul safe. O/M 59/40 (old 69/30).
So that's it. In any neutral year this should be a safe 26-1 map. In bad years for us we will have to work for a few more but I think that even in a 2010-like election we'd win all but a few. The important thing is that 26 districts would consistently favor our side. And this is why it is so important for Democrats to reject an attempt by the Senate GOP to gerrymander their own chamber, and the Congressional map, again. Others have tried their hands at court-drawn maps and they are all better than what the GOP would insist on. We can handle one election of that and then redraw the maps to our liking.
*UPDATE*
Acknowledging that my first attempt at 26-1 could go as badly as 20-7 in absolutely nightmarish years, I offer some adjustments to upstate New York and Long Island. We'll start with the latter first, where I no longer tried to shoot for a clean sweep but instead conceded a seat for King that he should win, but will be a tossup during a good year for us or when he leaves in any case. The rest of the Democrats should be safe.
NY-01 swaps with its neighbor, goes to O/M 53/46. There simply is nothing more that can be done for Bishop short of making his seat unrecognizable. Should be safe for him.
NY-02 suffers as a result, but makes up for it mostly by swapping some with its neighbors to the west as well, going to O/M 55/44. That is the absolute best you can do for Israel's seat while also protecting Bishop and while still keeping it Suffolk-based. I am confident Israel can handle it.
NY-03 loses north Nassau as in my previous maps, also eats up some leftovers from the NY-04/NY-05 mashup, so it moves to O/M 51/48. That is safe for Peter King (though it should be noted that he would have sweat this big time in 2006 when Dave Mejias held King to a 12 point victory in the 47/52 O/M seat). And so if King ever retires this would be a top-tier race in a neutral year or better.
NY-04 is essentially combined with the old NY-05, leading to a McCarthy/Ackerman face-off in a 59/40 O/M district. Safe Dem.
Since I no longer attempt to flip King's seat, Turner's and Crowley's also become significantly more Democratic than in my first draft (the former goes to 63/36, the latter to 67/33).
For upstate, I took the advice given shifted Republicans back to Gibson's district.
NY-18 gains Poughkeepsie and shoots up to O/M 58/41. There's no way Hayworth wins this. Likely pickup goes to safe pickup.
NY-19 settles back to 51/48 O/M, as it currently is. We will always have the ability to snag this one back in a good year but Gibson can hold this otherwise. Long-term I am optimistic about this area as it is one of the few upstate seats that Kerry improved on Gore's numbers, and the only one he did significantly. Call it lean GOP as drawn.
NY-20 goes back up a bit to 57/41 O/M, taking in more of its old territory. 4 lost points of Dem performance might be pushing it (as in my first draft), but Democrats can afford to unpack the Albany seat by 2 measly points from its current version. Safe for Tonko even in bad years.
NY-22 is now up to 54/45 O/M by giving Lewis County to Gibson and that I believe is the best you can get this for Owens while still making it something he recognizes. I think he would be strongly favored in this seat even without two Republicans splitting the vote against him.
So that's that, my changes would (I feel) cement at least 24 Democratic seats even in terrible years for our side, but we could easily go 26-1 the next time a Democratic wave happens. This I think is the wisest way to go, and much more palatable to our incumbents.