Princeton Survey Research (PDF) for the Boston Herald and UMass-Lowell. 9/22-28. Registered voters (no trendlines):
Elizabeth Warren (D): 38
Scott Brown (R-inc): 41
(MoE: ±3.1%)
These new numbers come on the heels of a PPP poll showing a similarly tight race (Warren by 46-44) just two weeks ago. Somewhat strangely, this survey apparently didn't test the performance of other actual Democratic candidates, but did ask hypotheticals involving two Democrats who most emphatically will not run: Gov. Deval Patrick and ex-Rep. Joe Kennedy. Both of those men lead Brown (43-36 and 45-37 respectively), but even though neither will enter the race (nor, I suspect, will anyone else), they do demonstrate where Warren's numbers might wind up once her name recognition increases. That glimpse of the future could be the most worrisome part of this poll for Brown.
And as with PPP, Warren enjoys a large — though not quite as commanding — lead in the primary as well:
Elizabeth Warren (D): 36
Tom Conroy (D): 5
Marisa DeFranco (D): 4
Alan Khazei (D): 3
Bob Massie (D): 3
Setti Warren (D): 3
Herb Robinson (D): 1
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Newton Mayor Setti Warren, as you may know, dropped out of the race last week, explaining that Elizabeth Warren "changed the race for me and it was clear to me that I could not win." The question now seems to be which Democratic candidates will be the next to come to that same conclusion.
1:20 PM PT: It turns out this poll did include the lesser-known Dems; the Boston Herald simply held back those numbers in its initial writeup. David Kravitz of the excellent Blue Mass Group rounds them up in this post and also notes:
What they did for the candidates other than Warren is a bit strange — they divided their sample in half (the total sample was just over 1,000 respondents) and tested the various matchups in half-samples. But the results are there, and they're roughly what you'd expect — against everyone other than Warren, Brown is substantially ahead.