As my mom says, Pennsylvania is the quirkiest state in the union. Its politics don't disappoint, under that standard. In SWPA and NEPA, seats that are 52+% McCain can be considered very D friendly. However, in SEPA, Republicans can comfortably hold seats that voted over 55% Obama, including in the State House/Senate, where Republicans basically dominate anything 55% Obama and under (and sometimes higher).
PA-15 sits at nearly 56% Obama, but has elected Charlie Dent and elected Pat Toomey comfortably for over a decade.
PA-06 sits at a whopping 58% Obama, but Jim Gerlach has managed to hold on for the decade.
PA-07 sits at 56% Obama, but Joe Sestak held it for two terms. Remember that Sestak was down in polling in October until Weldon's corruption scandal broke out. Republicans were supposed to hold PA-07.
PA-08 sits at 54% Obama, but was a Republican seat for all but two cycles. Had Speaker Perzel not have been from Philly, PA-08 would have been kept out of it. Mike Fitzpatrick won the Bucks County section of the seat in 2006, and if more R friendly MontCo had been added instead of NE Philly, he probably would have held on in '06.
Needless to say, SEPA is a strange place for politics. Even though Jim Gerlach's 58% Obama seat sends him to Washington each cycle, Allyson Schwartz's 59% Obama seat sends her back each cycle. NE Philly is trending away hard. Her MontCo portion of the seat only voted around 54% Obama, but the NE Philly part kills Republicans in PA-13.
Pennsylvania Republicans view Schwartz as a potential threat to Tom Corbett, and according to rumors, are targeting her. PA Rs are going to do this by following a few easy steps.
1) They're going to throw her home base in with Chaka Fattah.
2) Lower Merion, parts of West Philly, and the Democratic areas of DelCo will be added together to create a western Philadelphia area seat with almost no overlap with the current PA-13. This would make Schwartz drain her campaign account in a campaign here, a huge inconvience to her (and a great way for PA Rs to make PA Dems spend money when they wouldn't have had to in the old map).
3) Giving Bob Brady a 100% Philly district. Brady, the boss of the Philadelphia County Democratic Machine, will never be primaried seriously in a Philly based seat. He has too much power, too many allies, and too many connections to the area. Schwartz wouldn't run in PA-01.
Anyway, this is the map that I would pass if I were PA Republicans and I wanted to knock out Schwartz in the primary.
Enjoy!
THE FIGHTING ALL OF SEPA!
PA-01: Bob Brady. Brady gets a far whiter seat, and again, due to his status as party boss, Schwartz running here could put her political career in grave danger if she loses this primary (or even if she wins, Bob Brady would be after her with the Philly machine). Safe D.
PA-02: Chaka Fattah. Fattah sucks up Schwartz's lower MontCo base, and her home in the process. She wouldn't run here. Safe D
PA-13: Open, but Allyson Schwartz could run here. This new seat contains parts of West Philly, most of Lower Merion Township, parts of western central MontCo, and and much of Eastern DelCo. Schwartz has represented very little of this before, and would have to move to run here. I think she could win, but she could face a very strong local primary. She'd be a very strong Lower Merion candidate, but I don't see her clicking with most of the Democrats in eastern DelCo. Even though she'd probably win, needless to say, this seat could make her spend a lot of money to win a primary.
PA-08: Mike Fitzpatrick. 53.5% Obama (sorry, the pic is cut off).
In Pennsylvania redistricting, Bucks County is never, ever split. People from Bucks have a shared identity, and it seems like they hate the idea of being split.
Speaker Perzel from last decade was the one who decided to run PA-08 into NE Philly. Bad mistake. Mike Fitzpatrick won the Bucks portion of this seat in 2006. Adding more favorable areas of MontCo instead of NE Philly means that Fitzpatrick would likely have won this seat in 2006. Remember, he won Bucks. He lost because of NE Philly. I'm willing to say this leans R, because if Fitzpatrick would have won this seat in 2006, I'm very comfortable with it.
PA-07: Pat Meehan. Meehan is very popular from his days as a US Attorney. Keep in mind that this seat was never supposed to fall to Democratic hands, but Weldon had a late corruption trial that dragged him down. Cook had this as Likely and then Leans R until the scandal broke loose. See here... I'd say this 53% Obama seat leans R, because of its historical Republican quality, and how it gains a three point improvement. I give Meehan large parts of MontCo from Jim Gerlach, because it is a better fit for him culturally.
PA-06: Jim Gerlach. Well, Gerlach gets a 7.5% boost in security here by dropping MontCo, picking up most of Chester, picking up Berks (outside of Reading), and through picking up parts of Lebanon County. Gerlach has had such a strong hold on his 58% Obama seat that I'm going to call this very likely R. This seat also contains Joe Pitts' home in Kennett Square, but I hope he moves. By the way, even if Jim Gerlach loses the primary here, I still am very sure we win this PA-06.
This seat will surely vote for the R nominee in 2012.
PA-15: Charie Dent. Isn't it strange that somewhere that is pretty blue on the Presidential level elected Toomey for three terms? Dent seems to have a very good hold on this Lehigh Valley seat. The Lehigh Valley is also never split in PA redistricting. I wish I could take out Allentown and give it to Holden, in order to vote sink Holden and help Dent, but that's just a dream, I guess.... Anyway, Dent is fairly entrenched, and has done very well here. i'm going to say this leans R.
PA-18: Joe Pitts would run here. Pitts gets no help nor hurt, but I hope he just hangs it up. Likely/Safe R for any other R, Leans/Likely R for Pitts. This area is tremendously Republican locally, except for Reading, so I think he should be fine here.
Anyway, there you have it. That is how Republicans should go after Schwartz, while at the same time protecting our incumbents.