Note: Power rankings and detail are cross posted on sk7326's personal page
As we noted in last week's edition of this tome, two of the three Thanksgiving matches had major power rankings implications. And so, with the Packers and Ravens making major statements in high profile games, the identity of the Top 2 should not really surprise anybody. On Monday, the Saints delivered a message against a Giants team that, as it turns out, is more or less what we thought they were - certainly the 2 game gap between them feels a heck of a lot bigger.
As for the rest of the league? As always, the rankings combine RPI, adjusted scoring margin, head to head, record vs common opponents and record vs good teams.
1 (1). Green Bay Communists (11-0) 31 pairwins
2 (3). Baltimore Edgar Allan Poems (8-3) 30
3 (2). San Francisco 49ers (9-2) 28
4 (4). New Orleans Saints (8-3) 28
5 (5). Greater Boston and Providence Patriots (8-3) 28
6 (8). Pittsburgh Steelers (8-3) 25
7 (9). Houston Texans (8-3) 25
8 (7). Chicago Bears (7-4) 23
9 (6). Detroit Lions (7-4) 23
10 (11). Cincinnati Other Paul Browns (7-4) 20
11 (10). Dallas Cowboys (7-4) 20
12 (12). Atlanta Falcons (7-4) 19
13 (14). Denver Incompletion Jesuses (6-5) 18
14 (13). Los Angeles Raiders of Oakland (7-4) 17
15 (15). Northern New Jersey Jets (6-5) 16
16 (18). Tennessee Non-Oilers (6-5) 16
17 (17). Buffalo Bills (5-6) 14
18 (20). Philadelphia Eagles (4-7) 12
19 (16). Northern New Jersey Giants (6-5) 11
20 (19). Seattle Seahawks (4-7) 11
21 (21). Land Mass Surrounding Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7) 10
22 (22). Los Angeles Chargers of San Diego (4-7) 10
23 (24). Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8) 9
24 (26). Washington Racial Slurs (4-7) 7
25 (23). Kansas City Texans (4-7) 5
26 (25). Miami Dolphins (3-8) 5
27 (28). Arizona Cactus Wrens (4-7) 4
28 (27). Cleveland Paul Browns (4-7) 4
29 (31). Carolina Panthers (3-8) 2
30 (29). Minnesota Vikings (2-9) 2
31 (30). Anaheim Cleveland Rams of Saint Louis (2-9) 1
32 (32). Peyton Manning's Co-Workers (0-11) 0
The 8 Toughest Schedules to Date:
Tampa Bay Bucs (66-44, .549)
Detroit Lions (63-47, .542)
Chicago Bears (60-50, .533)
Baltimore Ravens (62-48, .531)
Denver Broncos (61-49, .528)
New York Jets (59-51, .527)
Minnesota Vikings (60-50, .521)
San Diego Chargers (57-53, .513)
The 8 Easiest Schedules to Date:
Saint Louis Rams (55-55, .486)
Carolina Panthers (51-59, .477)
Indianapolis Colts (51-59, .475)
New York Giants (50-60, .474)
Kansas City Chiefs (47-63, .474)
Cleveland Browns (49-61, .471)
Washington Redskins (47-63, .457)
Arizona Cardinals (45-65, .457)
With five, FIVE games to go, ha ha ha ... the playoff picture is getting clearer .... indeed in the AFC the suspense is starting to fade.
(if I discuss scoring margins, they are in the detailed report)
AFC:
East: Patriots finish up with Ind, at Was, at Den, Mia, Buf ... at Denver is their toughest opponent remaining, feels like 11-5 or 12-4 is their most likely range.
South: It's the Battle of Houston, Houston Present vs Houston Past. The Texans with a 3rd string QB, Atl, at Cin, Car, at Ind, Ten ... Titans at Buf, NO, at Ind, Jax, at Hou. On paper, the Texans have 2-3 losses heading into the finale, while the Titans should split those four meetings. Houston SHOULD be safe here, but we are in the stranger things have happened category. That said, a top two seed seems out of reach.
North: Ravens and Steelers to the post. Ravens with their sweep means the Steelers need to beat them outright for the division. Baltimore finishes at Cle, Ind, at SD, Cle, at Cin. In other words, the Ravens are going to be in the playoffs one way or another. Pit finishes Cin, Cle, at SF, Stl, at Cle ... so both teams have cake-o-la finishes, though PIT has the tougher one. Baltimore's tendency to play to their competition becomes a risk area - but failing that I expect them to win the division.
West: It's the Raiders or the Broncos. Schedule analysis aside, the Raiders just track as a much better team on paper. That said, both teams are close in record and in scoring margin (a better forward indicator). They have split their meetings this year. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop in Denver - but maybe Tim Tebow does have some inside info after all.
Wild Card: With the AFC North grabbing one position, it is the Jets, Broncos/Raiders, Titans and Bills for 1 spot. Personally there is no reason the Jets should be ousted here - they are clearly the most talented of these teams and they are 3 points better in scoring margin than any of their peers.
This week's guess: 1. Ravens 2. Patriots 3. Texans 4. Raiders 5. Steelers 6. Jets
NFC:
East: The Cowboys schedule advantage that we have yammered about for weeks is coming into focus, as the Giants keep facing and losing to better teams. The Giants have overachieved all season, 6-5 but with a scoring margin closer to Denver than Oakland than one like New England or Baltimore. I expect the Cowboys to pull away here.
South: Saints have taken a bit of a stranglehold here. The Falcons could catch them in theory. But Atlanta finishes at Hou, at Car, Jax, at NO, TB. Saints finish Det, at Ten, at Min, Atl, Car. The Falcons have the easier schedule but not by much. When they meet in Week 16 it could be for the division. But I have to defer to scoring margin where the Saints +10.6/g bests Atlanta's +6.3.
West: Hah!!
North: Hah squared!!
Wild Card: So where are we here. The Lions and Bears at 7-4, but both teams scuffling and the Bears with the QB problem (but a defense that almost got a win anyway). The Giants at 6-5, but a record that masks a rather average team. The Falcons at 7-4, who do not pass the eye test (much like a year ago) but are winning (also much like a year ago). Chicago finishes KC, at Den, Sea, at GB, at Min ... Detroit finishes at NO, Min, at Oak, SD, at GB. That said, the GB game for Detroit for sure will involve GB's junior varsity squad most likely - perhaps unless there is an unbeaten season to be had. Detroit has rougher sledding to me here than Chicago, though Chicago's QB situation makes a lot of this dicey. I have trouble imagining both of them negotiating the rough waters. So the Falcons and the Bears get the spots for now.
This week's guess: 1. Packers 2. 49ers 3. Saints 4. Cowboys 5. Falcons 6. Bears
There are a lot of problems in this country - and a lot of serious threads to cover them and the corresponding need for justice for all. This is not one of those diaries.