The legislative map passed this summer by the FitzWalkerstan GOP is rather nasty, especially by Wisconsin standards. Thankfully, it might get thrown out for a form of disenfranchisement I didn't realize was actionable: moving voters from even to odd districts so they have to wait two more years to vote for a state senator. The Republican map does this to 300,000 Wisconsinites (7% of the state population). I tried to draw a map that would minimize this (I only moved 46k), protect communities of interest, and maintain the status quo wherever practical.
Note that this is my first redistricting diary, so I will be happy to take suggestions, comments, or angry rants that I've screwed a golden incumbent. A companion Assembly map will follow soon- Wisconsin is very strict about nesting, so if the Senate map is thrown out, so is the Assembly map.
To give readers an accurate idea of the partisan lean of each district, I'm using a crude PVI from the 2008 presidential and 2010 gubernatorial elections, with baselines so that Wisconsin as a whole is D+2 in both election. As Obama won 57% of the two-party vote in 2008 and Walker won 53% in 2010, a district that both Obama and Walker won by 55% would be have an even PVI, while a 50% Obama/60% Walker district would be R+5.
Minority populations by VAP will be listed for all districts that are less than 90% white VAP. Note that these districts are only found in South Central and Southeast Wisconsin.
Statewide View:
Northwest Wisconsin
SD-10 (Magenta): Sheila Harsdorf (R-River Falls)
Old: 51-49 Obama, 41-59 Walker (R+4) New: 52-48 Obama, 41-59 Walker (R+3.5)
Harsdorf's district had to shrink a lot due to the growth of the outer Twin Cities suburbs, and unfortunately there were no adjacent even districts, so SD-25 had to absorb most of the population. Likely R.
SD-25 (Pale Violet): Bob Jauch (D-Poplar)
Old: 60-40 Obama, 52-48 Barrett (D+6) New: 59-41 Obama, 51-49 Barrett (D+5)
Jauch's district moves west, gaining territory in conservative Polk and Burnett counties in exchange for Iron County, which goes to Holperin. Still, it keeps most of the Iron Range, which along with Superior and Ashland still dominates this district. Safe D with Jauch, Likely D if open.
SD-29 (Dark Sea Green): Pam Galloway (R-Wausau)
Old and New: 54-46 Obama, 43-57 Walker (R+1.5)
Pam Galloway's district is essentially unmodified, except for a few townships she picks up from Moulton. Tossup, tilt R.
SD-23 (Aquamarine): Terry Moulton (R-Chippewa Falls)
Old and New: 56-44 Obama, 44-56 Walker (EVEN)
Terry Moulton basically gets to keep his old district if he survives next spring. Pure Tossup.
SD-31 (Khaki): Kathleen Vinehout (D-Alma)
Old: 58-42 Obama, 47-53 Walker (D+2) New: 59-41 Obama, 48-52 Walker (D+3)
Vinehout's district didn't move much, but apparently the precincts she got from Harsdorf were a bit more liberal than the ones she gave to Schultz. While this is hardly a safe district, Vinehout did survive 2010 here. Likely D with Vinehout, Lean D if open.
SD-24 (Indigo): Julie Lassa (D-Stevens Point)
Old and New: 60-40 Obama, 48-52 Walker (D+4)
Lassa gains a few rural precincts in Waushara county, but not enough to significantly weaken her disrict. Likely D.
Northeast Wisconsin
SD-12 (Olive): Jim Holperin (D-Conover)
Old and New: 54-46 Obama, 42-58 Walker (R+2)
Holperin gains 12,000 new constituents, but they are evenly divided between Iron Range liberals and Oconto County conservatives, so his district remains reddish purple. This would be Lean R if open, but for moderate, NRA-endorsed Holperin it should be Lean D at worst.
SD-30 (Light Coral): Dave Hansen (D-Green Bay)
Old and New: 57-43 Obama, 45-55 Walker (D+1)
Hansen loses a few Menominee County precincts to Cowles, but basically keeps his same district. His victory margin was the largest on either side in the summer recalls, but then again his opponent had to deny smoking crack. Lean D.
SD-2 (Green): Robert Cowles (R-Allouez)
Old and New: 53-47 Obama, 41-59 Walker (R+3)
Cowles loses the northern part of Oconto County to Holperin, but gains bits and pieces from Lasee, Olsen, and Hansen. He's still a rather good match for the district, and will be a very tough target. Likely R with Cowles, Lean R if open.
SD-1 (Blue): Frank Lasee (R-De Pere)
Old: 54-46 Obama, 42-58 Walker (R+2) New: 55-45 Obama, 43-57 Walker (R+1)
Lasee needs to lose population, and the only real place to do so is in conservative Manitowoc and Calumet counties to Leibham. Lasee's a bit gaffe-prone from what I've seen, so I'll call this a Pure Tossup.
SD-19 (Yellow Green): Mike Ellis (R-Neenah)
Old and New: 55-45 Obama, 44-56 Walker (R+0.5)
Ellis' district is essentially unchanged. His moderate credentials and seniority should help him in this purple district, but he's old and could retire. Likely R with Ellis, Pure Tossup if open.
SD-18 (Yellow): Jessica King (D-Oshkosh)
Old and New: 52-48 Obama, 41-59 Walker (R+3.5)
It's a good thing that King's district was nearly at ideal population already, because it already contains all the blue areas that could be placed in it without a rather nasty gerrymander (I've tried). Still, King is fairly moderate, so this should be a Pure Tossup for her. If open, it would be Likely R.
SD-9 (Cyan): Joe Leibham (R-Sheboygan)
Old: 54-46 Obama, 40-60 Walker (R+3) New: 53-47 Obama, 39-61 Walker (R+4)
Lasee's loss is Leibham's gain, as he acquires 10k friendly conservative constituents, while shifting about 2k into Grothman's district. Likely R
Southwestern Wisconsin
SD-32 (Orange-Red): Jennifer Schilling (D-La Crosse)
Old and New:62-38 Obama, 49.9-50.1 Walker (D+6)
This area grew at precisely the same rate as the state as a whole, so the district didn't have to change an inch. Recalled Senator Kapanke will be the last Republican to hold this district for a long time if current trends continue, especially given how badly he betrayed his constituents. Safe D.
SD-17 (Slate Blue): Dale Schultz (R-Richland Center)
Old and New:61-39 Obama, 48-52 Walker (D+4.5)
Schultz' district moves north very slightly, but it is still the same rural Driftless Area district it was before. It's not hard to see why Schultz voted against SB10. If this seat were open, it would be Likely D, but it's Safe Schultz as long as he doesn't mess up.
SD-14 (Gray): Luther Olsen (R-Ripon)
Old: 52-48 Obama, 42-58 Walker (R+3) New: 53-47 Obama, 42-58 Walker (R+2.5)
Olsen's district moves south, gaining most of Columbia County from Miller. Thankfully for Olsen, and I didn't intend this, he got the purple parts rather than the blue southwestern part of the county. Lean R.
South-Central Wisconsin
SD-27 (Spring Green): Jon Erpenbach (D-Middleton)
Old: 67-33 Obama, 62-38 Barrett (D+14.5) New: 68-32 Obama, 62-38 Barrett (D+15)
89% White, 3% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Erpenbach's district is the fastest-growing in Wisconsin, so it lost most of its Green County territory to Cullen, consolidating on its suburban core. Probably the best way to describe the politics here is that this was Feingold's old district before he was elected to the US Senate. Safe D.
SD-26 (Gray): Fred Risser (D-Madison)
Old and New: 82-18 Obama, 80-20 Barrett (D+30)
77% White, 6% Black, 7% Hispanic, 7% Asian
Risser gains a precinct in eastern Madison and loses his Middleton precincts to Erpenbach in order to balance population and unite communities of interest. This district will not elect anyone but a progressive Democrat, so Risser can easily win a fourteenth 4-year term here.
SD-16 (Lime): Mark Miller (D-Monona)
Old: 67-33 Obama, 61-39 Barrett (D+13) New: 68-32 Obama, 62-38 Barrett (D+14)
Miller loses most of Columbia county to Olsen as mentioned earlier due to the growth of the Madison suburbs, making this almost entirely a Dane County district. Safe D.
SD-15 (Orange): Tim Cullen (D-Janesville)
Old and New: 64-36 Obama, 53-47 Barrett (D+8.5)
89% White, 4% Black, 5% Hispanic
Cullen loses Whitewater and Edgerton to gain portions of Green and Lafayette counties. It's basically a wash, though adding more rural moderates will help Cullen be more secure in primaries. Safe D, especially for Cullen.
SD-13 (Salmon): Scott Fitzgerald (R-Juneau)
Old:48-52 McCain, 37-63 Walker (R+7.5) New:49.9-50.1 McCain, 39-61 Walker (R+5.5)
Fitzgerald loses part of Oconomowoc and a bit of Jefferson County, and gains Edgerton. Given that he weakened his own district about this much in the GOP map, I'd have to call this Safe R with Fitz and his dirty tricks. If open, it would be Likely R.
SD-11 (Spring Green): OPEN
Old: 40-60 McCain, 29-71 Walker (R+15.5) New: 44-56 McCain, 32-68 Walker (R+12)
Madison's growing, and Milwaukee's shrinking, so districts have to move west somehow, and Kedzie's district was ideally positioned to absorb population ultimately coming from SD-27, so that no even-numbered district need get involved. This and a desire to unite communities of interest meant that Kedzie's home is with the rest of Waukesha in SD-33. Unless Kedzie relishes primarying Zipperer in a district that is only about 20% his, he'll run here and win. Safe R, and much nicer looking than before.
Southeastern Wisconsin
SD-33 (Royal Blue): Rich Zipperer (R-Pewaukee) vs. Neal Kedzie (R-Waukesha)
Old and New: 38-62 McCain, 28-72 Walker (R+17)
Zipperer loses his Washington County territory to Darling, while gaining the rest of Waukesha from Kedzie, who will have to move. This is now an entirely Waukesha County district. At risk of redundancy, I'll call it Safe R.
SD-20 (Pink): Glenn Grothman (R-West Bend)
Old and New: 36-64 McCain, 26-74 Walker (R+19)
Grothman loses part of Ozaukee county to Darling, while gaining a few northern wards from Leibham. This is still the most conservative district in Wisconsin, and is represented by the most conservative senator. Safe R.
SD-8 (Slate Blue): Alberta Darling (R-River Hills)
Old: 52-48 Obama, 46-54 Walker (R+2) New: 45-55 McCain, 39-61 Walker (R+8)
Alberta Darling loses essentially all her black constituents to Taylor, while gaining a small amount of Ozaukee County from Grothman and a vast swath of Washington County from Zipperer. She also gains the rest of Whitefish Bay and Glendale, so as to unite communities of interest. The most expensive state senate seat in America is now Safe R.
SD-4 (Red): Lena Taylor (D-Milwaukee)
Old: 87-13 Obama, 83-17 Barrett (D+35) New: 85-15 Obama, 81-19 Barrett (D+33)
27% White, 64% Black, 3% Hispanic, 4% Asian
Lena Taylor's district expands and moves north to absorb the partly black neighborhoods that Darling currently 'represents'. Additionally, this district is almost entirely located within the City of Milwaukee now, aside from a few precincts in Wauwatosa added to get up to proper population. Safe D.
SD-6 (Teal): Spencer Coggs (D-Milwaukee)
Old: 89-11 Obama, 87-13 Barrett (D+38) New: 88-12 Obama, 81-19 Barrett (D+37)
32% White, 57% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Coggs gains the easternmost portion of Taylor's district to maintain a firm black majority, which I would consider an absolute requirement in America's most segregated metropolitan area. Safe D.
SD-5 (Gold): Leah Vukmir (R-Wauwatosa)
Old: 52-48 Obama, 45-55 Walker (R+1.5) New: 50.2-49.8 Obama, 43-57 Walker (R+3.5)
87% White, 4% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Vukmir has to expand westward, but not by as much as the GOP moved her. She gains parts of Brookfield and Greenfield, both quite red. Scott Walker's home district is Likely R.
SD-3 (Purple): Tim Carpenter (D-Milwaukee)
Old: 64-36 Obama, 55-45 Barrett (D+9.5) New: 63-37 Obama, 55-45 Barrett (D+9)
53% White, 5% Black, 37% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Carpenter's district didn't need to change much, and so it didn't. This is the closest thing to a Hispanic VRA district that can be drawn in Wisconsin. Safe D.
SD-7 (Light Gray): Chris Larson (D-Milwaukee)
Old and New: 61-39 Obama, 55-45 Barrett (D+8)
85% White, 3% Black, 7% Hispanic, 3% Asian
The youngest Wisconsin senator has a bright future ahead of him in this South Milwaukee district, which only changed by a single ward. Safe D
SD-28 (Plum): Mary Lazich (R-New Berlin)
Old: 40-60 McCain, 32-68 Walker (R+14) New: 39-61 McCain, 31-69 Walker (R+15)
Lazich loses Greenfield to gain several precincts in Waukesha County. This remains a very conservative suburban seat. Safe R.
SD-21 (Maroon): Van Wanggaard (R-Racine)
Old: 56-44 Obama, 46-54 Walker (D+1) New: 56-44 Obama, 45-55 Walker (D+0.5)
77% White, 11% Black, 10% Hispanic
Van Wanggaard gains conservative Burlington, but that's only 9,000 people. He's still the most vulnerable Republican. There's a good chance that he'll be recalled before he can represent this district. Pure Tossup in either case. Note that, in the GOP map, this district and SD-22 are clearly the worst offenders in gerrymandering, with both packed to protect their incumbents.
SD-22 (Sienna): Bob Wirch (D-Pleasant Prairie)
Old: 58-42 Obama, 47-53 Walker (D+2.5) New: 59-41 Obama, 47-53 Walker (D+3)
83% White, 5% Black, 9% Hispanic
Wirch doesn't have to move to represent this district, which is his old district minus parts of Burlington and Twin Lakes. It's a far more marginal district than the GOP is giving him, but I doubt Wirch will mind undoing the Wanggaardmander. Likely D.
Sat Nov 05, 2011 at 10:08 PM PT: A basic rundown of the districts:
Safe D (10):3,4,6,7,15,16,25,26,27,32
Likely D (3): 31,24,22
Lean D (2): 12,30
Tossup (4): 1,18, 21,23
Lean R (2): 14, 29
Likely R (4): 2,5,9,10
Safe R (7) : 8,11,13,17,20,28,33