James Carville's famous 1992 reminder, "It's the economy, stupid," kept the Clinton campaign focused and helped beat an incumbent President. Will that happen again?
The political and economic winds are very different now than they were then, so it's probably too simplistic to say, "the economy's bad, so the incumbent will likely lose." For one thing, in 1992 we had just slipped into recession. In 2012, we are in recovery. Direction of the economy may matter.
Some recent polls and surveys shed some light.
Bloomberg Global Survey - U.S. will have world's strongest economy in 2012
A December 7, 2011 Bloomberg Global Survey gives some indications of how the narrative may be changing. The survey report includes these observations:
Dec. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. receives its highest rating from international investors in more than two years...
More than two in five of those surveyed -- 41 percent -- identify the U.S. as among the markets that will perform best over the next year. .. almost double that of the next two top-rated markets, Brazil and China, according to the quarterly Bloomberg Global Poll conducted Dec. 5-6 of 1,097 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers.
The U.S. “may not be in the best shape ever, but compared to others it should outperform,” Alexis Laming, a poll respondent and associate director for Arab Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. in Geneva, says in an e-mail. It has “good growth potential for next year.”
I am especially heartened by this part (since foreign investors don't get to vote here):
U.S. respondents are more optimistic about the American market than their counterparts overseas: More than half pick it as a best-performing market for 2012 compared with a third of non-U.S. investors who do the same.Link to Bloomberg Global Poll
Upbeat expectations can change the narrative significantly in an election year. But, let's assume American voters' economic angst continues until November 2012. Who has the advantage, politically?
NBC-Wall Street Journal Poll - Dems seen as looking out for middle class
An NBC-Wall Street Journal poll Dec 7-11, 2011 has some possibly heartening results. Here is what Chris Cilliza of the Washington Post has to say about it:
In the new NBC-Wall Street Journal national poll, respondents were asked which party would do a better job of “looking out for the middle class”. Forty four percent named Democrats while 24 percent opted for Republicans....
As interesting as Democrats’ current edge on the question is the steadiness of the party’s advantage over time. In an October 1996 NBC-WSJ survey, Democrats enjoyed an identical 20-point margin over Republicans. Ditto an October 1993 NBC-WSJ poll. Go all the way back to November 1989 ... and Democrats had a similar 23-point edge on the “looking out for the middle class” question.
What does the persistence of Democrats’ lead on the middle-class question tell us heading into 2012?
That when they are talking about the middle class (and rising inequality more generally), Democrats are playing the equivalent of a home game with voters. That is, voters have a lasting image of Democrats as the party looking out more for the middle class. Therefore when the two parties fight over who is truly fighting for the vast middle, it’s more likely that the Democratic argument wins out. (It’s like a Duke hoops player getting a charge call at Cameron Indoor Stadium. It just always happen.)Link to The Fix Link to NBC-Wall Street Journal Poll
The Obama campaign's framing of the election in terms of fairness for the middle class seems, in light of these results, to be wise. But, it may not be a slam-dunk winner.
Gallup Poll - American's don't see divide between haves and have-nots
Another poll, this one by Gallup, has some results that could cut either way:
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans are now less likely to see U.S. society as divided into the "haves" and "have nots" than they were in 2008, returning to their views prior to that point. A clear majority, 58%, say they do not think of America in this way, after Americans were divided 49% to 49% in the summer of 2008....
The shift, documented by a Gallup poll conducted Nov. 28-Dec. 1, is noteworthy in that it came after 3 ½ years of economic turmoil in which more Americans have become unemployed and more have become negative about their personal finances. The current poll was also conducted as the Occupy Wall Street movement continues to focus on the disparities between the wealthiest 1% of Americans and everyone else.
If they had to choose, 58% of Americans would say they are in the "haves," rather than the "have nots" group. Link to Gallup Poll
This result could mean:
- Americans see the economy as improved over 2008. This could help answer the "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" question that folks seem to assume works against the President; or
- Americans don't buy into the 99%/1% meme, framed by the Occupy movement.
Democrats can, by understanding public perceptions, use the economy to our advantage. But these various survey results indicate that public perception is still amenable to either party's framing and argument.