Picking up on a diary from Calitics in 2006 about tracking competitive districts, I continued the tracking for the 2008 and 2010 elections. With the new district data, I can start the "Outlook" series for 2012.
In 2008 I tried a "Partisan Factor" (PF), inspired by a comment in the aforementioned diary, in which I averaged the margins in registration, 2002-Gov., 2004-Pres., 2004-Sen., and 2006-Sen. In 2010 I used just the registration and the 2008 presidential numbers. For 2012 I will try a new "Partisan Factor" using the registration margin, 2008-Pres., 2010-Sen., and 2010-Gov, with different weights. I weighed the 2010 races more and the registration and 2008 less.
Also, for the 2008 and 2010 races, the numbers represent the difference between the parties given their share of the 2-party vote. For example, in CA-03, Obama won 56.3-43.7, Fiorina won 51-49, and Brown won 53.8-46.2.
Here is the lowdown on these districts.
U.S. House
District |
"Incumbent" |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2008 Pres. |
2010 Sen. |
2010 Gov. |
PF |
CA-03
|
Garamendi
|
42.1
|
32.8
|
D+9.3
|
D+12.6
|
R+2.0
|
D+7.6
|
D+3.9
|
CA-07
|
Lungren
|
39.4
|
38.6
|
D+0.8
|
D+5.5
|
R+7.4
|
D+5.4
|
R+0.5
|
CA-09
|
McNerney
|
45.3
|
35.8
|
D+9.5
|
D+15.5
|
D+3.0
|
D+9.2
|
D+6.9
|
CA-16
|
Costa
|
48.3
|
33.4
|
D+14.9
|
D+17.8
|
R+3.8
|
D+8.4
|
D+3.9
|
CA-21
|
None
|
46.2
|
35.3
|
D+10.9
|
D+5.8
|
R+11.6
|
D+4.0
|
R+1.9
|
CA-24
|
Capps
|
39.2
|
35.6
|
D+3.6
|
D+15.5
|
R+1.4
|
D+0.6
|
D+0.8
|
CA-26
|
Gallegly (?)
|
41.1
|
35.5
|
D+5.6
|
D+14.9
|
R+2.0
|
R+1.0
|
D+0.0
|
CA-31
|
Dreier/Lewis (?)
|
41.1
|
37.0
|
D+4.1
|
D+14.9
|
D+2.2
|
D+8.2
|
D+5.6
|
CA-36
|
Bono Mack
|
39.0
|
41.4
|
R+2.4
|
D+3.1
|
R+11.0
|
R+6.8
|
R+7.7
|
CA-41
|
None
|
41.9
|
35.3
|
D+6.6
|
D+18.9
|
D+7.4
|
D+13.0
|
D+10.3
|
CA-46
|
Sanchez
|
44.8
|
32.1
|
D+12.7
|
D+19.2
|
D+10.0
|
D+10.6
|
D+11.0
|
CA-47
|
None
|
42.6
|
32.0
|
D+10.6
|
D+19.3
|
D+8.6
|
D+9.4
|
D+9.7
|
CA-52
|
Bilbray
|
32.9
|
35.9
|
R+3.0
|
D+12.1
|
R+7.8
|
R+8.4
|
R+6.6
|
State Senate (odd-numbered districts)
District |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2010 Sen. |
2010 Gov. |
2008 Pres. |
PF |
SD-05
|
42.6
|
38.2
|
D+4.4
|
R+7.0
|
D+1.6
|
D+8.4
|
R+1.4
|
SD-19
|
44.0
|
31.8
|
D+12.2
|
R+6.2
|
D+6.2
|
D+22.5
|
D+2.3
|
SD-27
|
40.9
|
34.6
|
D+6.3
|
R+0.8
|
R+0.8
|
D+16.4
|
D+0.8
|
SD-31
|
39.8
|
37.1
|
D+2.7
|
R+0.2
|
D+5.6
|
D+14.5
|
D+3.3
|
SD-39
|
38.1
|
30.9
|
D+7.2
|
D+6.6
|
D+6.0
|
D+13.8
|
D+6.8
|
State Assembly
District |
DEM |
GOP |
Margin |
2010 Sen. |
2010 Gov. |
2008 Pres. |
PF |
AD-08
|
40.4
|
37.9
|
D+2.5
|
R+5.2
|
D+7.6
|
D+7.1
|
D+1.6
|
AD-16
|
40.1
|
34.4
|
D+5.7
|
D+5.0
|
D+5.8
|
D+23.4
|
D+6.3
|
AD-21
|
47.9
|
33.0
|
D+14.9
|
R+7.2
|
D+1.2
|
D+11.5
|
R+0.5
|
AD-31
|
49.7
|
32.9
|
D+16.8
|
D+3.2
|
D+14.6
|
D+20.8
|
D+10.3
|
AD-32
|
47.5
|
33.5
|
D+14.0
|
R+8.3
|
R+8.6
|
D+7.7
|
R+5.4
|
AD-40
|
39.6
|
38.0
|
D+1.6
|
R+6.0
|
D+1.0
|
D+7.6
|
R+1.6
|
AD-44
|
39.2
|
37.2
|
D+2.0
|
R+5.8
|
R+5.4
|
D+12.0
|
R+4.0
|
AD-60
|
36.6
|
39.7
|
R+3.1
|
R+10.8
|
R+4.8
|
D+5.0
|
R+6.7
|
AD-61
|
42.8
|
34.7
|
D+8.1
|
D+10.4
|
D+15.8
|
D+24.0
|
D+13.1
|
AD-65
|
36.6
|
38.0
|
R+1.4
|
R+10.6
|
R+8.8
|
D+3.4
|
R+8.2
|
AD-66
|
38.4
|
35.6
|
D+2.8
|
R+2.2
|
R+1.4
|
D+12.6
|
R+0.6
|
If (and this is a big if) the races go according to the Partisan Factors, then the composition of the delegations will be as follows:
U.S. House: 35 DEM , 18 GOP
Safe DEM (26) : 2, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 27, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 43, 44, 51, 53
Safe GOP (14) : 1, 4, 8, 10, 22, 23, 25, 39, 40, 42, 45, 48, 49, 50
State Senate: 27 DEM , 13 GOP
Safe DEM (10) : 3, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 25, 33, 35
Safe GOP (5) : 1, 21, 23, 29, 37
Up in 2014: 13 DEM , 7 GOP
State Assembly: 50 DEM , 30 GOP
Safe DEM (46) : 2, 4, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, 30, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 56, 57, 58, 59, 62, 63, 64, 69, 70, 78, 79, 80
Safe GOP (23) : 1, 3, 5, 6, 12, 21, 23, 26, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 55, 60, 65, 66, 67, 68, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77