Cross posted from http://alphanovus.org/...
I’m continuously vexed at the incessant concern trolling about the deficit that’s plagued pretty much every media outlet in existence. I’m more vexed that Obama and the Democrats, who are supposed to actually have some infinitesimal clue about how economics works have just completely conceded any arguments arguing FOR deficit spending in dire times (for instance: now).
But one particular issue with the deficit talk that grinds my gears more than any others is that we not only have to take care of the deficit, but we have to do it QUICKLY. China and all our foreign creditors could be calling in their loans any minute now! To that I say: have any of you tea baggers any idea what it would take to pay off our debt in any quick fashion? (rhetorical question)
Here's the breakdown of the budget for fiscal year 2010:
Expenditures: $3.552 trillion
Revenues: $2.381 trillion
Deficit: $1.171 trillion
Okay, so this means that we would have to cut $1.171 trillion from the budget in order to simply BREAK EVEN. Our total debt is somewhere around $14 trillion. If we didn't create even a single cent more worth a deficit, we'd still have $14 trillion that would have to be paid off. So if we want to pay all that debt off, we'd have to be running surpluses, and they'd have to be huge surpluses if we planned on paying off the total debt any time soon. "That's no problem, just cut lots of government spending!" you might say if you were a tea bagger. Okay, Samuel Adams, here's what the gubment spent its money on in FY 2010:
* Mandatory spending: $2.009 trillion (-20.1%)
- $695 billion (+4.9%) – Social Security
- $571 billion (−15.2%) – Other mandatory programs
- $453 billion (+6.6%) – Medicare
- $290 billion (+12.0%) – Medicaid
- $164 billion (+18.0%) – Interest on National Debt
- $11 billion (+275%) – Potential disaster costs
- Discretionary spending: $1.368 trillion (+13.1%)
- $663.7 billion (+12.7%) – Department of Defense (including Overseas Contingency Operations)
- $78.7 billion (−1.7%) – Department of Health and Human Services
- $72.5 billion (+2.8%) – Department of Transportation
- $52.5 billion (+10.3%) – Department of Veterans Affairs
- $51.7 billion (+40.9%) – Department of State and Other International Programs
- $47.5 billion (+18.5%) – Department of Housing and Urban Development
- $46.7 billion (+12.8%) – Department of Education
- $42.7 billion (+1.2%) – Department of Homeland Security
- $26.3 billion (−0.4%) – Department of Energy
- $26.0 billion (+8.8%) – Department of Agriculture
- $23.9 billion (−6.3%) – Department of Justice
- $18.7 billion (+5.1%) – National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- $13.8 billion (+48.4%) – Department of Commerce
- $13.3 billion (+4.7%) – Department of Labor
- $13.3 billion (+4.7%) – Department of the Treasury
- $12.0 billion (+6.2%) – Department of the Interior
- $10.5 billion (+34.6%) – Environmental Protection Agency
- $9.7 billion (+10.2%) – Social Security Administration
- $7.0 billion (+1.4%) – National Science Foundation
- $5.1 billion (−3.8%) – Corps of Engineers
- $5.0 billion (+100%) – National Infrastructure Bank
- $1.1 billion (+22.2%) – Corporation for National and Community Service
- $0.7 billion (0.0%) – Small Business Administration
- $0.6 billion (−14.3%) – General Services Administration
- $19.8 billion (+3.7%) – Other Agencies
- $105 billion – Other
What would you like to cut? Most tea baggers complain about the 'entitlements', social security and medicare (for everyone else, of course). But even if you completely gutted BOTH SS and medicare, you STILL wouldn't be breaking even. If you dismantled every single non-defense discretionary government program, you would STILL have a deficit of $700 billion! (Mind you, all these calculations are presuming that the Republicans don't create any additional tax cuts for millionaires, which would mean we'd have to cut even more to offset those tax giveaways) Furthermore, if we somehow were able to magically stop ALL forms of government spending, it would still take 4-5 years to pay off the whole debt.
If we were running a surplus of $100 billion a year, it would take roughly 140 years to pay off the debt. If we were running a surplus of $200 billion a year, it would take roughly 70 years. At $300 billion, it would be 45 years. These numbers are a fantasy. You are not going to get surpluses like that simply by doing spending cuts.
The Republicans/tea baggers always prattle on about how we have to pay off the debt ASAP, regardless if we're in a major recession or not (hell, some think now is the BEST time to do such a thing). But even the budget proposal crafted by Republican 'prodigy', Paul Ryan actually INCREASES the deficit in the first 10 years:
The CBO states that in the first ten years Ryan's budget proposal would actually increase, not decrease, the federal budget deficit. If Congress does nothing the CBO projects that the federal deficit will make up 67% of GDP in 2012. The CBO estimates under Ryan's proposal the federal deficit will make up 70% of GDP in 2012. Ryan has been called a "genius" by conservative over the last 24 hours, but progressives will contend that even a simpleton knows that 70% is greater than 67%.
The CBO also does however go on to say:
The good news for Ryan is that CBO does project his plan bringing down the deficit over the long term. The bad news is that the CBO states Ryan can only do this by shifting Medicare costs to private citizens. Under the current law the deficit will reach 90% of GDP by 2050. Under Ryan's plan the deficit would only equal 10% of GDP in 2050.
So, despite the fact that we absolutely, definitely, positively, have to tackle the deficit as quickly and brutally as possible, even the GOP golden boy's proposals would take 40 years to make any meaningful dents in the deficit. Wonderful.
Yet for some reason, mathematically challenged twits like Paul Ryan are held up as brilliant visionaries by the punditocracy for his supposed insight in tackling the deficit, despite the fact that it does exactly the opposite of what these same idiots are lauding him for!