Ekos' penultimate polling report prior to tomorrow's federal election puts the leftish, social-democratic NDP in a dead heat with the ruling Conservatives among committed voters:
May 1, 2011
National Federal Vote Intention
(committed voters only)
34.8% Conservative Party of Canada
32.4% New Democratic Party
20.4% Liberal Party of Canada
5.7% Bloc Québécois
5.6% Green Party of Canada
n=2,988
This is the second poll released today showing the NDP within striking distance of the Conservatives. Forum Research released top-line figures showing them and the Conservatives separated by just two points:
May 1, 2011
National Federal Vote Intention
35% Conservative Party of Canada
33% New Democratic Party
19% Liberal Party of Canada
Full results and internals for this poll were, however, not released.
An NDP popular vote does not yet appear to be the most likely outcome. Recent releases by other firms show the gap as somewhat wider -- 4 to 5 points on average.
Nor would a popular vote victory necessarily allow the NDP alone to govern Canada. Because the NDP's vote is relatively geographically dispersed, their votes translate to seats in Parliament at a lesser rate than for the Conservatives. So despite these polling results, seat projections give the Conservatives the most seats, in many cases enabling them to form a minority government.
Still, these results show an increasing likelihood of NDP minority government, or a coalition government of the NDP and Liberals.
Updated by social democrat at Sun May 01, 2011 at 08:52 PM PDT
Ekos' final numbers for committed voters:
34.0% Conservative Party of Canada
31.6% New Democratic Party
20.8% Liberal Party of Canada
6.4% Bloc Québécois
5.9% Green Party of Canada
n=2,690
Their final seat projection is:
1) CPC: 130 to 146 seats
2) NDP: 103 to 123 seats
3) LPC: 36 to 46 seats
4) BQ: 10 to 20 seats
5) GP: 1 seat
(155 needed for a majority.)
They add: "For those who would prefer a point estimate, just take the midpoint of the zones...." This would give (roughly)...
136 Conservative Party of Canada
114 New Democratic Party
42 Liberal Party of Canada
15 Bloc Québécois
1 Green Party of Canada
...which would yield a possible NDP minority goverment or coalition with the Liberals.