For my first attempt at a redistricting diary I decided to try my hand at Minnesota, partly because I've lived there in the past and partly because it is a place where we have failed to maximize out opportunities. The core problem is that the Minneapolis and St. Paul districts are so ridiculously Democratic that many votes are wasted there, even though there is no VRA requirement to do so. MN-05 is surely the most heavily Democratic white-majority district in the country.
For this map, I have allocated Minnesota's eight seats as follows: One Democratic seat across the northern tier of the state, one Republican exurban/rural seat, and six seats that are each a microcosm of the state--part urban, part suburban, and part rural. Except for ensuring that Tim Walz has a district that includes Mankato, Rochester and Austin, I did not take the home of any incumbent or challenger into consideration in this process. By happenstance, however, each of my eight districts contained the home of just one incumbent. Thus, I renumbered the districts to keep the same district number for each.
Here is the statewide map:
And here is the metro area detail:
MN-01 (Blue):
Obama: 55.7%
McCain: 42.1%
Rep. Tim Walz (D-Mankato). Safe D.
This district contains the core of Walz's current southern Minnesota district, centered on Mankato, Rochester and Austin, but it is strengthened by an extension (via MSP airport) into St. Paul. Walz gets another ten years.
MN-02 (Green):
Obama: 54.9%
McCain: 42.9%
Rep. John Kline (R-Lakeville). Likely D.
Kline's new district includes his hometown of Lakeville, but there is not much else in common with his old district. It now includes the south side of Minneapolis, suburban Scott County, and the southwestern portion of the state. Uphill for Kline, to say the least.
MN-03 (Magenta):
Obama: 55.0%
McCain: 43.2%
Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-Eden Prairie). Lean D.
Paulsen's new district remains focused on suburban Hennipen County; it also includes central Minneapolis and the University of Minnesota campus as well as some rural counties to the west. Paulsen is strong enough that he may be able to hang on despite the district's leanings, but if he should decide to leave to run statewide in 2014 we should certainly take the seat.
MN-04 (Red):
Obama: 57.5%
McCain: 40.5%
Rep. Betty McCollum (D-St. Paul). Safe D.
McCollum's new district is the south side of St. Paul, together with some blue-leaning suburban territory, and some Mississippi River counties down to the Iowa border. Safe.
MN-05 (Yellow):
Obama: 55.7%
McCain: 42.3%
Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minneapolis). Safe D.
Ellison's new district is the north side of Minneapolis, the northwest suburbs, and some farm country extending west to South Dakota. Safe for a Democrat in November, but Ellison may be vulnerable in the primary.
MN-06 (Teal):
Obama: 55.4%
McCain: 42.5%
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Stillwater). Likely D.
Bachmann lives here, but can't win here; she'd run in MN-08. The new Sixth consists of the north side of St. Paul, some purple suburbia, and a corridor along the Mississippi up to St. Cloud. Tarryl Clark, Bachmann's 2010 opponent, lives here (in St. Cloud) but she might have trouble in a primary against a St. Paul-based opponent.
MN-07 (Grey):
Obama: 55.4%
McCain: 42.5%
Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Detroit Lakes). Solid D.
The Area Code 218 district coves the northern third of the state. It's safe for a Democrat, but the iron miners of the northeast might not be impressed by Peterson's status as the top Democrat on the Agriculture Committee; he would be vulnerable to a primary challenge from an Iron Range-based opponent. Maybe Peterson can become Ag Secretary in Obama's second term.
MN-08 (Purple):
Obama: 42.1%
McCain: 55.6%
Rep. Chip Cravaack (R-Lindstrom). Solid R.
The new MN-08 is a GOP vote sink, centered in the ultra-red exurbs north of the Twin Cities, together with some red rural territory. Fluke freshman Chip Cravaack lives here, but Bachmann would crush him in a primary.
Conclusion.
Obviously, since we lost the legislature in the 2010 cataclysm this map isn't going to happen. Still, it's good to stretch the envelope of what is possible here.