Take head-to-head polls with a grain of salt this far away from the election. But if you're like me, you feel the economy is only going to get better from now until 2012 and Obama's standing should improve in the eyes of the swing staters, like in Florida
Despite Obama's tepid approval numbers he still has at least a 4 point lead against all of his top potential challengers. It's 47-43 over Mitt Romney, an 8 point advantage over Tim Pawlenty at 48-40, a 9 point edge against Michele Bachmann at 49-40, an 11 point spread against Herman Cain at 48-37, and a 12 point blowout over Sarah Palin at 52-40
Those tepid #s stand at 48/49 approve/disapprove, not too dissimiliar from Gallup over the last few weeks. Diving into the numbers a bit, PPP's Jansen writes:
All of the GOP hopefuls have negative favorability ratings in the state, both overall and with independents. Bachmann comes closest to breaking even at 36/37, including 29/41 with independents. Romney's 41/45 overall and 43/45 with independents, Cain's 25/33 overall and 27/29 with independents, Pawlenty's 19/39 overall and 16/42 with independents, and Palin's 37/58 overall and 27/67 with independents
The unpopularity of Rick Scott and his right wing agenda appears to have soured Floridians on the idea of anything GOP, 40% saying his actions make them less likely to vote for the GOP in 2012.
Pawlenty's standing with independents is laughable by the way. (How can an independent like Bachmann more than Pawlenty lol)
Interestingly, 60% of Hispanics approve of the job he's doing, while only 35% of whites feel the same way. Some traction on immigration reform and other steps will help shore up some more support come election day. Obama 'only' beats Romney 54-32 among Hispanics in the survey, something I hope to see improve dramatically before 2012 as well.
Finally, the group Obama is most underwater with is....the 65+ crowd. He's at 37/61 with them, the only group who has a lower than 50% approval rating for him! Sadly it seems as though the old folks are feeling like they are being bombarded by both sides on issues that they care about over the last few years, and O has some work to do to reassure them (and me for that matter) of his commitment to things like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
Thanks to PPP for staying in the field in important states and helping present a clear picture of the landscape: Obama far from doomed in crucial swing state, thanks in large part to Rick Scott's incompetence. Buyer's remorse indeed.