The next general election in Turkey will be this Sunday.
Considering recent events in the region, especially the Arab Spring and developments in Iran and Israel, the results of this election will most probably have an impact on how things develop in the region in the next few months and years.
One example:
If the situation in Syria spirals out of control and a civil war develops which threatens to spread to Lebanon and draws in Iran and Israel, …
- which country is in the best position, in cooperation with the U.N./U.S./EU/NATO, to help prevent things from spiraling out of control?
- which country is in the best position to take action, in cooperation with the U.N./U.S./EU/NATO, if things start getting out of control?
Background Information:
There are 550 MPs in the Turkish Parliament.
276 MPs are needed to form a government.
The more important number though is 330 MPs because it takes 330 votes for a constitutional amendment to be submitted for a referendum.
The current government of PM Erdogan and the AKP has 334 MPs.
There is an electoral threshold of 10% for a party to win seats in the Turkish Parliament.
Fifteen parties are on the ballot in this election.
One party, (BDP) the Barış ve Demokrasi Partisi - the Kurdish party, is not on the ballot because they cannot reach the 10% threshold. BDP candidates are running as independent candidates. Between 20 and 30 of these are expected to be elected.
There are also several other independent candidates on the ballot.
Only three of the fifteen parties on the ballot will pass the 10% threshold.
(AKP) Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi
(CHP) Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi
(MHP) Milliyetçi Hareket Partisi
Of the remaining twelve parties on the ballot the first two on this list are the strongest, and the following three could be surprises and get more votes than most expect.
(DP) Demokrat Parti
(SP) Saadet Partisi
(BBP) Büyük Birlik Partisi
(HEPAR) Hak ve Eşitlik Partisi
(HAS Parti) Halkın Sesi Partisi
(TKP) Türkiye Komünist Partisi
(EMEP) Emek Partisi
(DYP) Doğru Yol Partisi
(DSP) Demokratik Sol Parti
(LDP) Liberal Demokrat Parti
(MMP) Milliyetçi Muhafazakar Parti
(MP) Millet Partisi
The Election Campaign:
AKP has traditionally played the victim card very well, claiming that the traditional Turkish establishment is against them and suppressing or oppressing them. In this election AKP is the establishment and the victim card isn’t working. AKP is even being seen as the oppressors by some. Except for the 2007 election, when AKP got 47% of the vote, AKP has gotten between 34% and 40% of the vote. In local elections in 2009 AKP got 38% of the vote nationwide.
CHP has grown dramatically this year. A change in leadership, the reintegration of parties which had split from CHP back into the party, a shift of focus to the youth vote, and courting the Kurdish vote have all helped the party increase its base. In local elections in 2009 CHP got 23% of the vote nationwide and DSP got 3%. All of the DSP leaders, candidates and supporters have rejoined CHP, and DSP exists now essentially in name only.
MHP has redefined itself. It was seen as a stodgy militaristic conservative anti-Kurdish party. One example is that last week MHP had a, its first ever, very successful campaign rally in Diyarbakir, the largest Kurdish city in Turkey, and thousands, maybe tens of thousands, turned out for an amazing speech given by the MHP’s leader.
BDP has maintained its position and might have grown. BDP and AKP made an agreement before the election campaign began but what was agreed on has never been made public. In spite of this agreement there has been open and growing hostility between the two parties. AKP’s strongest base has been the Kurdish areas of Turkey.
The question most ask is how many votes AKP will get. The best way to answer this might be to determine how many votes AKP won’t get.
My estimate for the best case scenario for AKP is:
The 12 minor parties – 8%
BDP and other independent candidates – 6%
MHP – 14%
CHP – 28%
Which leaves AKP with 44%, enough to form a government with about 300-310 MPs.
My estimate for the worst case scenario for AKP is:
The 12 minor parties – 10%
BDP and other independent candidates – 8%
MHP – 18%
CHP – 32%
Which leaves AKP with 32% and forces a coalition.
In order to win enough seats to form a single-party government in this election a party will need at least 40% of the vote.
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Additional Note: Election polls in Turkey are extremely unreliably. If you see one take it with a huge grain of salt.