Across the blogosphere, there have been a number of blogs and frontpage posts, dismissing Huntsman's move to the center. No offense to the folks that have joined the pile on, but you could be gravely mistaken. Jon Huntsman is the smartest person running in the Republican primary, he has institutional support, and his move to the center is actually a smart primary election strategy. I know everyone is obsessed with the tea party and believes the only way to win the primary is to win their support, but that's not necessarily true. In the industry of electoral politics, one is always looking for a "path to victory", and Huntsman may have just started walking down that road. Follow me over the jump, if you wanna know why/how.
So in recent days, there has been a flurry of media activity over Huntsman's statements that run in the face of the far-right rhetoric that one is so used to hearing, from Republican candidates. In general, the left blogosphere has responded with reactions along the lines of "what is he thinking" and even going so far as to ask if he is "trying to lose". In fact these statements would normally be apt, as it's expected for candidates to move right or left(depending on the party) to lock down the most "base" voters. The well founded idea being that these folks are the most likely to vote in a party's primary election. In this case, these reactions could quite misguided. I'd like to play devil's advocate and make the case that Huntsman's position is actual improving, for the following reasons:
1. People are talking about him, even though he's in the basement of poll standings. He has continued to get positive media coverage that is disproportionate to his standings in the polls.
2. He is getting plenty of coverage in mainstream press, casting him as a serious, center-right politician. This directly led up to this flurry of criticism, aimed at the far-right positions of the rest of the field, as they court the tea party. These are hallmarks of a coordinated communications and messaging strategy. Not only executed inside his campaign, but with people in the position to get his messages amplified. This also shows that he has friends, high up in the media establishment, and that they are willing to help him out.
3. Post-Ames, even Mitt Romney has been actively courting the tea party. Much like the blogoshpere, his advisers have come to the conclusion that they will have an out-sized influence, on the primary outcome. With this move, Romney has created room, for another centrist candidate to make gains.
4. If(and this is a big if) Romney continues his moves rightward, then the Republican primary will essentially become an eight-way race for the tea party vote and Huntsman would be all alone, with the chance to pick up all of the non-crazy primary voters.
... and, because of primary scheduling, the path to victory becomes apparent.
Sure, he's gonna lose Iowa, but he's not trying to win there. He's trying to win New Hampshire, and if Romney continues both a rightward drift and his amazing ability to not seal the deal with seemingly any voters... then, come primary day, then he'll be in a great position to win, setting himself up as the only moderate, intelligent candidate. He'll lose South Carolina, but if he wins New Hampshire, he'll be in a strong position to win in Nevada, which is practically his backyard. Minnesota's caucus comes soon afterward, and with momentum and, potentially, support from a jilted Pawlenty, he'll be a contender. I think he would do well in the Mountain West primaries, also.
Look, I'm not saying he can/will win, but I really think all this talk about Huntsman not having a snowball's chance, in hell, is dangerous. Especially in light of the fact that the Obama campaign team went after him, early in his roll out. That means they fear him and how he would match up against the president.