At this moment, it seems as if the odds favor a flip in New York's 9th district. And with the Democratic-controlled New York Assembly and Republican-controlled New York Senate having to find a way to get rid of two incumbents, the drama seems to center around eliminating the 9th and eliminating Kathy Hochul's seat? But what about a series of splits to eliminate the 9th and at least help one upstate Republican as a payback while keeping Hochul?
Here's the blank maps of upstate New York and New York City:
Let's go district by district now
NY1 (Bishop): 78W/12.5H, 51.4/47.6 Obama. Was 52/48 Obama. Only adds a few precincts on the Western Border.
NY2 (Israel): 64W/20H, 55/44.1 Obama. Was 56/43 Obama. Loses precincts to NY1. Loses Jericho to NY3. Picks up the tail of NY3 around Bayshore.
NY3 (King/Turner): 76.5W/12H, 50.1/49.1 McCain. Was 52/47 McCain. Loses it's tail to NY2. Picks up a new one by going to Rockaway and picking up Bob Turner's house. Picks up some turf from NY4.
NY4 (McCarthy): 52W/17B/18H/11A, 58.4/40.9 Obama. Was 58/41 Obama. Loses turf to NY3. Picks up turf from NY5.
NY5 (Ackerman): 36W/26H/32A, 64.4/34.9 Obama. Was 63/36 Obama. Loses turf to NY4, picks it up from NY9.
NY6 (Meeks): 13W/45B/20H/14A, 86.8/12.9 Obama. Was 89/11 Obama. Loses ground to NY3 and picks it up from NY9.
NY7 (Crowley): 22W/15B/42H/17.5A, 77.6/21.9 Obama. Was 79/20 Obama. Picks up ground from NY9.
NY8 (Nadler): 64W/12H/19A, 67.6/31.5 Obama. Was 74/26 Obama. Loses ground to NY14/16, picks it up from NY13. The much more Republican Brooklyn section is inevitable because NY13 can't take all that stuff without causing problems with the majority-minority districts. So sinking Borough Park/Dyker Heights into the 8th seems like the only likely outcome.
NY9 (Hayworth/Lowey): 60W/10B/22H, 62/37 Obama, was 62/38 Obama in NY18. Hayworth would likely not run in this district and would move north.
NY10 (Towns): 21W/51.5B/20H, 88/12 Obama, was 91/9 Obama. Swaps some ground with NY11 and picks up NY9.
NY11 (Clarke): 29W/51B/12H, 87/12 Obama, was 91/9 Obama. Picks up a bit of NY9.
NY12 (Velazquez): 30W/43H/17A, 83/16 Obama, was 86/13 Obama. Picks up the Middle Village.
NY13 (Grimm): 65W/15H/10A, 51/48 McCain, was 51/49 McCain. Swaps some turf from NY8, picks up Homestead/Sheepstad Bay.
NY14 (Maloney): 65W/14H/14A, 79/20 Obama, was 78/21 Obama.
NY15 (Rangel): 24W/25B/45H, 92.5/7 Obama, was 93/6 Obama.
NY16 (Serrano): 27B/66H, 94/6 Obama, was 95/5 Obama.
NY17 (Engel): 44W/27B/21.5H, 67/33 Obama, was 72/28 Obama.
NY18 (Hanna): 90W, 51.5/47 McCain, was 51/48 Obama.
NY19 (Buerkle): 84.5W, 56/42 Obama, was 56/43 Obama.
NY20 (probably Nanworth): 77.5/11H, 51/47 Obama, was 51/48 Obama.
NY21 (Gibson and Owens): 92W. 53/45 Obama. Gibson's district was 51/48 Obama. Owens district was 52/47 Obama. In a head to head, Gibson would be a favorite based on geography through.
NY22 (Tonko): 80W, 58/40 Obama. Was 58/40 Obama.
NY23 (Hinchey): 76W/11H, 58/40 Obama. Was 59/39 Obama.
NY24 (Reed): 92W. 52/46 McCain. Was in a 51/48 McCain district.
NY25 (Slaughter): 72W/15B, 59/40 Obama. Was in a 69/30 Obama district.
NY26 (Hochul): 87W. 49.4/49 Obama. Was in a 52/46 McCain district. Picks up areas from Slaughter outside of Monroe and loses Monroe areas to Slaughter.
NY27 (Higgins): 76W/14B. 59/39 Obama. Was 54/44 Obama. Absorbs some blue areas from Slaughter's district.
In a year similar to 2008, Obama wins 23 of 27 districts.
But if the year is closer to 50/50 nationally than 53/47, Obama wins 20 of 27 districts.
The winners and losers of this map
Winners: Hochul (gets a better district), Dan Maffei, Michael Grimm
Losers: Bob Turner, Bill Owens or Chris Gibson, Peter King
So, how does this account for a Bob Turner victory?