I know the primary race has a long way to go and this could look very foolish in a few months, but I think this is now the most likely outcome for the GOP when you look at the respective candidates. Also, the rules the GOP have adopted this year in allocating their delagates in a somewhat proportional manner make a divided convention more likely as well.
Lets look at the candidates:
Romney: He has plenty of money but no matter how far he moves to the right the GOP base refuses to accept him. If he fails to win South Carolina, of the first three states on offer the only one he has won is his semi home state New Hampshire. Not exactly confidence inspiring if you want to see Romney win decisively.
Gingrich: Is in a very different situation to Romney. The GOP's far-right base loves him, but he doesn't have the funds to knock Romney out. If he wins SC (which I think he will) there's no doubt he'll drag this race on to the bitter end. Also, the fact that Gingrich is quite posibly the most bitter/vindictive politicians in the U.S today makes it even more likely that he won't stop.
Santorum: Had his moment in the sun in Iowa, will probably drop out/be made irrelevant after SC. This would obviously help Gingrich as it frees up more uber-conservative votes for Gingrich.
Paul: Is probably the most interesting candidate as I truly don't believe he wants to win the nomination. He wants to create a new extreme States Rights/libertarian movement with him at the centre of it. He doesn't have the money or support to win the nomination, but he will conistently get around 15-25% of the vote and will never drop out no matter what.
So what does this mean? In past cycles, it probably would have meant the GOP base going for Romney, even if they did it reluctantly. However, I just can't see this happening this time. The bizarre zealotry in the GOP and the fact that Romney is so unlikeable in so many different ways means that I just can't see him winning the nomination cleanly and thus, I think this will go all the way to the convention. This, of course, would be great news for the blue team.
Thoughts?