This coming Tuesday, Ten states will vote and award a large number of delegates. The rules differ greatly as how those delegates are awarded. With a keen eye toward the rules, I look at how many delegates each candidate is quite likely to receive in each state and which delegates are truly in play. On Sunday after Washington, I will make a best stab at a final estimate for all delegate awarded on Tuesday. Here is the state of play going in with state breakdowns and the math after the jump.
Overall
Locked
Romney 130
Santorum 92
Gingrich 37
Paul 18
In Play 125
Romney States
Massachusetts [38]
Locked
Romney 25
In play
13
Math
Massachusetts is a completely proportional state with a 15% threshold at both the state and Congressional district levels. Mitt Romney can be almost completely certain of winning at least 60% of the overall vote, and a similar percentage in each Congressional district. Those numbers mean he will 2 out of 3 delegates in each congressional district and at least 7 of 11 statewide delegates. Where the tension is whether Santorum or in theory Ron Paul can get the 15% required in the right district to keep Romney from taking all of the states delegates.
Vermont [14]
Locked
Romney 9
In play 5
Math
Vermont has an interesting system in that it has a 20% threshold to win delegates and a 50% threshold to take all the delegates except for its 3 CD level delegates[a misnomer since it only has 1]which are decided winner take all and will certainly go to Romney. However recent polling suggest that Santorum will hold Romney under 50% statewide and will be entitled to some number of the at large delegates.
Idaho [29]
Locked
Romney 12
Paul 6
Santorum 6
In play 5
Math
Idaho seems to be done purely proportional with Romney likely to get 40+ and Paul and Santorum likely to hold 20% each, and Gingrich not to make the 15% viability threshold.
Virginia 46
Locked Romney 43
In Play 3
Math
Since Ron Paul and Mitt Romney are only two on ballot, the odds are really good Romney will win them all. However in the Virginia 3rd, there are very few Republicans [Like the Michigan 13th] So it is not outside the realm of possibility Ron Paul could snag it.
Gingrich State
Georgia 73
Locked
Gingrich 27
Santorum 12
Romney 6
In play 28
Math :
The math in this state is incredibly complicated. First the easy section, in the statewide at large vote Gingrich seems to be a lock for 30%, Santorum and Romney each get 20% with remainder up for grabs[but not for Paul because he won’t reach the 20% viability threshold] That gives 9 delegates to Gingrich and 6 a piece to Romney and Santorum ] From there the math is a bit more complicated. Georgia has 14 districts, if you get 50%, you will all three delegates from the district , I don’t think anyone can get there anywhere, but in theory Gingrich . My math is based on the idea that Gingrich is a lock to win eight districts, while guaranteed to finish at least 2nd in another two districts. I have Santorum to finish in the top two in six district, and the rest of the districts are potentially up for grabs. This is likely overly cautious as Gingrich looks likely to win all districts, and finish not worse than second anywhere but am going to be cautious for the moment.
Santorum States
Tennessee 55
Locked
Santorum 27
Romney 8
Gingrich 6
In Play
14
Math
Tennessee is a bit like Georgia, there is a , 20% threshold needed to take a delegate. From an at large perspective I have Santorum at 40% [of those reaching 20%] for 11 Delegates, and 20% for Romney and Gingrich for 6 delegates a piece. At the district level, Santorum seems to be on track to win 7 districts, with two up for grabs each being worth two delegates, with odds certain he comes in second in the other two . In theory Romney might be able to win the other two district ,and thus will likely be 2nd in those districts at a minimum. In the other seven districts delegates will be decided by who is the, 2nd place finisher or, if neither Romney nor Gingrich can get to 20% than those could still fall to Santorum.
Oklahoma [40]
Locked
Santorum 14
In play 26
Math
This math is even more complicated. First off every contest is winner take all if someone gets to 50% which Santorum is knocking at. At the statewide at large if Santorum doesn’t get to 50%, 15% is needed to get delegates, both Romney and Gingrich are on track for that. At the district level, I believe we have potential deadlock, my reading of the rules is that, with 15% and everyone under 50% it is entirely irrelevant if you get 40% or 16.5%. This would seem to be the only true proportional rule at the CD and not sure if is going to hold.
Ohio 63
Locked
Romney 18
Santorum 18
in play 27
Math
For the state wide at large it is winner take all at 50% which isn’t going happen. 20% Threshold which only Romney and Santorum will hit [but sill in theory room for Gingrich if he gets there.] 15 delegates at large delegates. Allowing for blow out., I started it at 6-6, but will more likely start 7-7.
It is winner take all at the Congressional District level. Where Santorum will likely take four, Romney will likely take four, with the other eight being up for grabs.
North Dakota [25]
Locked
Santorum 7
Paul 6
Romney 5
Gingrich 2
In play 5
Math all proportional.
Alaska [24]
Santorum 6
Paul 6
Romney 4
Gingrich 2
In play 6
Math all proportional.