For any who may be reading this series for the first time: this is a thought experiment where I try to see what would happen if the size of the House of Representatives were doubled to 870 members from 435. This series is both highly theoretical and very unlikely to ever occur.
Just fucking SIGH. After the Texas legislature drew a blatantly illegal redistricting map, which handed all four of the new congressional districts to Republicans, we were given the chance to draw a new map through a San Antonio court. And that map was pretty awesome, all things considered. But then of course, the Supreme Court of the freakin' United States stepped in and said that the court had to show deference to the legislature, and just fix the parts that were illegal instead of drawing a whole new one. You know what SCOTUS? If parts of the map are illegal, then the whole thing is illegal.
So instead of a decent map, we get a shitty map that throws us a couple bones.
Well in my world, your shit just got Doubled, Texas.
Links to the adopted plan: North, South
Previous Doubling Diaries: WA, MT, NY, AZ, CO, KS, AL, GA, TN, IL, MD, WV, DC, New England, NE, MO, NC, MI, FL, SC, WI, LA, MS, UT, NV, OK, AK, WY, IN, NJ, VA, OH, HI, ND, SD, NM, VT, DE and ID
Texas
Texas gets a whopping 71 districts!
The Dem Average is:
- President 2004
- President 2008
- Governor 2002
- Governor 2006
- Governor 2010
All of these elections were won by the Republican by 10 points or more.
East
1
VAP: 74.6 White, 14.6 Black, 8.5 Hispanic
30 Obama, 40.9 Dem
Open. East Texas, based in Texarkana and Paris. Safe R
2
VAP: 75.5 W, 11.5 B, 10.5 H
27.6 Obama, 30.1 Dem
Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler) lives here. This district is basically Tyler. Safe R
3
VAP: 67.5 W, 17.4 B, 13.2 H
28.6 Obama, 32.7 Dem
Open. Based in Longview and Palestine. Safe R
4
VAP: 70.8 W, 16.9 B, 10.5 H
31.8 Obama, 40.2 Dem
Open. Based in Marshall, Nacagdoches and Lufkin. Safe R
5
VAP: 75.1 W, 13.3 B, 9.7 H
29.1 Obama, 38 Dem
Open. Based in Huntsville. Safe R
6
VAP: 44.9 W, 30.7 B, 20.3 H
57.3 Obama, 59.8 Dem
Open; plurality white. Beaumont, Port Arthur, Galveston and Texas City. Two-time former Rep. Nick Lampson is already running in a Beaumont/Galveston district, so he'd run here; the only difference is he'll win in a walk. Safe D
7
VAP: 73.3 W, 7.3 B, 15.4 H
27.6 Obama, 33.4 Dem
Open. A Galveston Bay district. Safe R
Houston
8
VAP: 17.7 W, 50.4 B, 28.6 H
83.2 Obama, 82.1 Dem
I don't have home precinct info for Texas' congressmen, so I can't be sure, but I imagine Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) lives here. Majority black. Houston. Safe D, black hold
9
VAP: 26.5 W, 7.9 B, 63.3 H
50 Obama (McCain win by 31), 53 Dem
Open? Supermajority Hispanic. Houston and east into Deer Park and Baytown. Only just now coming to fruition as a Hispanic district, their population is continuing to explode, so it's only a matter of time that this will be Safe D. But for now, Swing
10
VAP: 42 W, 5.6 B, 45.6 H, 5.5 Asian
39.8 Obama, 38.7 Dem
Open; plurality Hispanic. Pasadena. Already majority Hispanic by total population, this could potentially become a Swing district fast. For now though, Safe R
11
VAP: 13.5 W, 46.1 B, 32.2 H, 7.1 A
81.6 Obama, 78.4 Dem
Al Green (D-Houston) might live here, but he'd run here no matter what; plurality black. Houston and into Fort Bend County. Legendary soul singe- I mean Congressman Green's current district already greatly resembles this district, so he'd run here and win. He even gets a bump in black percentage. Safe D, black hold
12
VAP: 24.8 W, 19.8 B, 32.3 H, 21.3 A
54.3 Obama, 48.4 Dem
Ted Olson (R-Sugar Land) probably lives here; racial clusterfuck, Hispanic plurality. Sugar Land, Missouri City and Houston. I have no idea how to handicap a potential Dem primary, but my guess is it would either be an African-American or an Asian. Obama greatly outperformed the Dem average, so I'm guess this is trending our way. Olson would run in the 22nd next door. Lean D
13
VAP: 49.2 W, 8.9 B, 32.1 H, 8.3 A
55 Obama, 50.5 Dem
Open (I think); plurality white. Houston. Just what Southern Republicans don't want; a district for a white Democrat. Lean D
14
VAP: 37 W, 17.1 B, 31.7 H, 12.5 A
51 Obama, 44 Dem
Open; racial clusterfuck, plurality white. I don't think any Texas Republican would relish running in an Obama district, no matter how soft, so I'll hazard a guess at Swing
15
VAP: 15.7 W, 21 B, 60.8 H
70.3 Obama, 69.9 Dem
Open; supermajority Hispanic. North Houston. Gene Green (D-Houston) isn't given an obvious district to run in in this map, but it appears he already represents a decent portion of this district, and it's actually less Hispanic than his current seat. So I'll say he probably runs here. Safe D
16
VAP: 32 W, 21.4 B, 37.5 H, 7.8 A
50.3 Obama, 43.7 Dem
I'm guessing John Culberson (R-Houston) lives here; racial clusterfuck, Hispanic plurality. Houston and some suburbs. Culberson would probably win here in 2012, without a Democratic bench in Texas to speak of for the most part, but I'm guessing in a district like this he's living on borrowed time. He could always jump to the neighboring 17th when/if that happens. Likely R for now
17
VAP: 57.5 W, 10.4 B, 20.1 H, 10.5 A
31.8 Obama, 26.3 Dem
Open(?). Houston suburbs. Another district where demographics are rapidly changing, but for now it's hopelessly Safe R
18
VAP: 46.3 W, 11.8 B, 32 H, 8.3 A
39 Obama, 31.4 Dem
Open; plurality white. Houston suburbs. Another potential target in 10-some years? Safe R
19
VAP: 62.4 W, 11.5 B, 22.1 H
31.6 Obama, 29.1 Dem
Ted Poe (R-Humble) lives here. Outer Harris County and into Montgomery County. Safe R
20
VAP: 67.2 W, 8.2 B, 18.2 H
28.2 Obama, 23.2 Dem
Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands) lives here. Ho hum. Safe R
Houston Exurbs
21
VAP: 68.9 W, 10.2 B, 18.4 H
27 Obama, 26.7 Dem
Open. blah blah blah. Safe R
22
VAP: 54.3 W, 9.5 B, 21.9 H, 12.9 A
33.5 Obama, 30.3 Dem
Open. Etc, etc. As I mentioned above Ted Olson may want to run here instead of the 12th. Safe R
23
VAP: 57.4 W, 11.2 B, 24.9 H, 5.1 A
34.8 Obama, 35.9 Dem
Open; Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson) is retiring to invade the Federal Reserve or something. Yadda yadda yadda. Safe R
South
24
VAP: 53.7 W, 39.1 B
36.8 Obama, 38.8 Dem
Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi) lives here. Victoria and the Republican half of Corpus Christi. Accidental Rep. Farenthold may not have an easy time in a Republican primary in this blood-red district. Safe R
25
VAP: 24.4 W, 70.8 H
56.7 Obama, 60.5 Dem
Open; supermajority Hispanic. Corpus Christi and south. Even though this is a pretty solidly Dem seat, Latinos are unfortunately pretty socially conservative, so we might have to deal with that. Likely D, Hispanic pickup
26
VAP: 12.5 W, 86.2 H
65.8 Obama, 63.3 Dem
Open; supersupermajority Hispanic. Brownsville. Safe D, Hispanic pickup
27
VAP: 12.3 W, 85 H
63.7 Obama, 60.7 Dem
Open; supersupermajority Hispanic. McAllen and Edinburgh. Safe D, Hispanic pickup
28
VAP: 10.9 W, 88.4 H
72.1 Obama, 70 Dem
Rubén Hinojosa (D-Mercedes) lives here; supersupermajority Hispanic. Weslaco and Progreso. Safe D, Hispanic hold
29
VAP: 21.7 W, 76.3 H
53.7 Obama, 53.8 Dem
Open; supersupermajority Hispanic. Edinburgh, outer Laredo and further north; you'll be able to see the rest of the district in the West Texas picture. This is only slightly more Dem than Solomon Ortiz' district, so it could be vulnerable in a 2010-like wave. Other than that, Lean D, Hispanic pickup
West
30
VAP: 8.9 W, 89.6 H
68.8 Obama, 71.3 Dem
Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) lives here; supersupermajority Hispanic. Laredo and northwest, hitting the Big Bend area. Blue Dog Cuellar could probably not survive a primary challenge in this district, he may prefer to run in the open 29th instead. State Rep. Pete Gallego, who is already running for Congress, is from Big Bend and may decide to run here, I'm not sure how Blue Doggish he may be. Safe D, Hispanic hold
31
VAP: 26.8 W, 70.8 H
52 Obama, 50.7 Dem
Open; supersupermajority Hispanic. Outer El Paso County and the Big Bend area, heading east and reaching Kerrville. Quico Canseco (R-San Antonio) might run here, but it's slightly bluer than his current district, so he may not want to, in favor of the open and very red 66th. Any Democrat who runs here would have to be pretty Blue Doggish. Swing, potential Hispanic pickup
32
VAP: 21.5 W, 72.2 H
62 Obama, 58.2 Dem
Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso) lives here; supersupermajority Hispanic (I'm almost tired of typing that). El Paso. Safe D, Hispanic hold
33
VAP: 23.4 W, 69.6 H
53.1 Obama, 52.3 Dem
Open; supersupermajority Hispanic. Outer El Paso, Pecos and into the blue areas of Odessa and Midland. Fun fact, it also includes the least populous county in the nation, Loving County, pop. 82. Another district where we'd have to run a Blue Dog, at least at first. I have it on good authority that Odessa and Midland are trending blue. Lean D, Hispanic pickup
37
VAP: 63.9 W, 30.8 H
20.3 Obama, 23.5 Dem
Mike Conaway (R-Midland) either lives here or in the 33rd, but he'd run here. The other halves of Odessa and Midland, plus Big Spring and east. Safe R
38
VAP: 76.6 W, 19.2 H
23.8 Obama, 29 Dem
Open. Bumfuck nowhere, based in San Angelo and heading into the DFW exurbs. Safe R
North
34
VAP: 64.2 W, 27.5 H
21.7 Obama, 23.1 Dem
Open. The Panhandle and Amarillo. Safe R
35
VAP: 59.4 W, 6.2 B, 31.3 H
30.5 Obama, 29.2 Dem
Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock) lives here. Lubbock and not much else. Safe R
36
VAP: 70.2 W, 5.2 B, 22.3 H
23.7 Obama, 29.5 Dem
Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon) lives here. The Panhandle and south to Albiene. Thornberry shed a lot of his territory, including Wichita Falls and Amarillo, and picks up Albiene. He could be vulnerable in a primary. Safe R no matter what though.
39
VAP: 78.9 W, 6.3 B, 11.4 H
27.5 Obama, 32 Dem
Open. Based in Wichita Falls. Safe R
40
VAP: 76 W, 6.7 B, 13.9 H
29.2 Obama, 27.7 Dem
Ralph Hall (R/Turncoat-Rockwall), the Chair of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee and the oldest member of the House, lives here. Rockwall, McKinney and Greenville. Hall loses Texarkana. Safe R
Dallas/Fort Worth
Jeb Hensarling, Pete Sessions (both R) and Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) live in Dallas. Kay Granger (R) lives in Fort Worth. Since I don't know where their homes are by precinct, I can't pinpoint which district they live in. I'll just hazard guesses at where they'll run based on the shape of their current districts.
41
VAP: 27.8 W, 50 B, 19.1 H
80.2 Obama, 75.9 Dem
Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas) most likely lives here; majority black. Dallas, Highland Park, and parts of University Park and DeSoto. Unfortunately, "Princess" EBJ gets safe with a majority black district. Safe D, black hold
42
VAP: 28 W, 8.7 B, 60.1 H
55.8 Obama, 52.2 Dem
Open?; supermajority Hispanic. Dallas, with parts of Irving and Carrollton. Hispanic population is exploding, which belies the blue strength of this seat. Safe D, Hispanic pickup
43
VAP: 25.7 W, 22.5 H, 48.8 H
66.5 Obama, 61.8 Dem
Open?; plurality Hispanic. Dallas and Garland. In a Democratic primary, it would most likely be between Hispanics and African-Americans. Whoever wins that would likely win the general election. Safe D, black/Hispanic pickup
44
VAP: 34.8 W, 28.8 B, 32.6 H
62 Obama, 55.8 Dem
Open; plurality white. Outer Dallas County. Multicultural slugfest in a Dem primary, and whoever wins that is heavily favored. Safe D, minority opportunity
45
VAP: 25.6 W, 26.1 B, 44.7 H
71.3 Obama, 68.5 Dem
Open?; plurality Hispanic. Fort Worth. Safe D, Hispanic opportunity
46
VAP: 34.9 W, 20.4 B, 34.4 H, 8.5 A
56.7 Obama, 51.5 Dem
Open; plurality white. Arlington Likely D, minority opportunity
47
VAP: 53.5 W, 12.4 B, 24.5 H, 7.8 A
48 Obama, 40.7 Dem
Pete Sessions (R-Dallas) will likely run here. Dallas, Richardson and Garland. The demographics are rapidly changing here (whites are already only a plurality by total population), so Sessions will be in trouble sooner rather than later. But for now, Safe R
48
VAP: 54.2 W, 9.9 B, 21.3 H, 12.7 A
43.2 Obama, 35 Dem
Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell) lives here. Carrollton, Irving and Coppell, with Grapevine in Tarrant County. Safe R
49
VAP: 68.3 W, 9.3 B, 14.9 H, 5.7 A
37.1 Obama, 32.5 Dem
Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth) will likely run here. Fort Worth and some suburbs in Tarrant County. Safe R
50
VAP: 66.5 W, 13 B, 15.5 H
40.5 Obama, 35.5 Dem
Open. Outer Tarrant County. Safe R
51
VAP: 82.3 W, 13 H
24.7 Obama, 27.6 Dem
Open. Fort Worth exurbs, in Parker, Wise, Johnson and Tarrant Counties. Safe R
52
VAP: 70.7 W, 5.9 B, 16.8 H
34 Obama, 29.6 Dem
Open. Tarrant County. Safe R
53
VAP: 75.7 W, 5.8 B, 13 H
34.1 Obama, 28.8 Dem
Open. Denton, where the best ever death metal band came from. Safe R
54
VAP: 61.8 W, 9.5 B, 17.4 H, 9.3 A
39.4 Obama, 30.7 Dem
Michael Burgess (R-Lewisville) lives here. Lewisville and The Colony in Denton County. Safe R
55
VAP: 65.8 W, 8.3 B, 9.3 H, 14.4 A
37.9 Obama, 28 Dem
Open. Frisco, Prosper and part of McKinney, in Collin County. Safe R
56
VAP: 62.3 W, 9 B, 14.7 H, 12.1 A
39.5 Obama, 31.5 Dem
Sam Johnson (R-Plano) lives here. Basically just Plano. Safe R
57
VAP: 65.4 W, 11.6 B, 18.5 H
34.8 Obama, 33 Dem
Joe Barton (R-Ennis) lives here. Dallas exurbs, based in Kaufman County. Safe R
Jeb Hensarling isn't given an obvious district to run in, but he can choose any of the new Republican districts and probably be fine.
Waco/Kileen
58
VAP: 66 W, 12.9 B, 18.6 H
35.3 Obama, 39.3 Dem
Open. Based in Waco, with some Dallas exurbs. This is slightly better for Obama than the current Waco-based 17th, so theoretically former Rep. Chet Edwards could run here. But probably not.
Likely R with Edwards
Safe R otherwise
59
VAP: 58.5 W, 18.1 B, 16.9 H
42.3 Obama, 38.8 Dem
Open. Based in Kileen-Fort Hood. Safe R
Austin
60
VAP: 62.9 W, 11.4 B, 20.7 H
37.7 Obama, 37.1 Dem
Bill Flores (R-Bryan) lives here. Temple, Bryan and College Station. Safe R
61
VAP: 70.4 W, 19.6 H
39.5 Obama, 32.7 Dem
John Carter (R-Round Rock) lives here. Round Rock and Georgetown in Williamson County, plus Burnet County. Safe R
62
VAP: 63.7 W, 6.8 B, 17.5 H, 9.9 A
62.7 Obama, 54.1 Dem
Michael McCaul (R-Austin) probably lives here. Pflugerville and Austin. McCaul obviously can't survive here, so my guess he runs in the open 21st, which contains most of his old Houston-to-Austin territory. Lloyd Doggett could decided to run here instead of the majority-Hispanic 63rd, but it doesn't much matter, he'd win either one. Safe D
63
VAP: 29.6 W, 14.6 B, 51.5 H
76.8 Obama, 70.7 Dem
Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) most likely lives here, based on the current lines of his district; majority Hispanic. Austin and Travis County. Doggett could undoubtedly survive a primary from a Hispanic Dem in this district, but like I said he may choose to run in the 62nd instead anyway, I don't know. Safe D, Hispanic opportunity if open
64
VAP: 71.4 W, 18.4 H, 5.9 A
59.5 Obama, 52.5 Dem
Open. Austin and Travis County. Safe D
San Antonio
Lamar Smith and Quico Canseco (both R) both live in San Antonio. I'm just going to guess where each would run based on the politics and the territory they represent currently.
65
VAP: 59.3 W, 33.2 H
47.6 Obama, 44.9 Dem
Open. Bastrop, Caldwell and Hays Counties, with small parts of Travis and Guadalupe. Already on the edge of being a swing district, I've heard from my resident Texas politics expert that Bastrop County is taking a hard swing left, so this could open up for us within a few years. Lean R for now.
66
VAP: 68.8 W, 23.7 H
29.4 Obama, 24.7 Dem
Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio), the Chair of the House Judiciary Committee, doesn't live here, but this is mostly his current territory, so I believe he'd run here. Outer San Antonio/Austin, based in New Braunfels. Safe R
67
VAP: 50.8 W, 5.1 B, 41.1 H
37.1 Obama, 36.4 Dem
I believe that Quico Canseco (R-San Antonio) would run here. San Antonio exurbs. Safe R
68
VAP: 24.7 W, 5.3 B, 66.2 H
58.8 Obama, 55.4 Dem
Open; supermajority Hispanic. Southern/Western San Antonio. I'm not sure where State Rep. Joaquin Castro would run in his campaign to replace retiring Charlie Gonzalez, but he'd be fine in any of them. Safe D, Hispanic pickup
69
VAP: 29.3 W, 61.2 H
57 Obama, 52.7 Dem
Open; supermajority Hispanic. West Central San Antonio. Safe D, Hispanic pickup
70
VAP: 30.9 W, 63.5 H
56 Obama, 52.9 Dem
Open; supermajority Hispanic. Central San Antonio. Likely D, Hispanic pickup
71
VAP: 35.8 W, 16.8 B, 43.3 H
55.4 Obama, 49.3 Dem
Open; plurality Hispanic. Eastern San Antonio. The least blue of the SA districts. A Hispanic would be the most likely to make it out of the Democratic primary, but it could theoretically could be an African American or a white politician either. Likely D, minority opportunity
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So, from a 9-23 delegation to a 12-24 map, under Doubled, I would call this 27-41-3. Unfortunately, African-American population isn't large enough to add a new black member to the Texas delegation, but a whopping 14 new Hispanic members of Congress would likely be elected, joining Congressmen Hinojosa, Cuellar and Reyes. There are also 4 minority opportunity districts.
This brings the House as a whole so far to 360-261-55.