This is not to say that we can slack and coast through the presidential election, particularly given all the voter disenfranchisement initiatives coming from the right - this is going to be a hard-fought election, with lots of drama. And the current reality could be disrupted by an external factor, like a significant economic collapse, a serious political scandal, or a major foreign policy issue. But Romney's choice of Paul Ryan as VP candidate confirms for me that the right has given up on the White House in 2012.
We have an excellent opportunity to campaign against a destructive core Republican narrative that has been operative for generations: cutting social benefits while increasing defense funding and making the rich richer is what's best for America. Romney and Ryan pretty well perfectly embody this narrative, and Obama, with our support, is perfectly positioned to take America on a much more progressive path, establishing successful precedents that will meaningfully change the playing field.
That's not to say there won't be drama. For one thing, the media needs a close horse race, in order to maximize their ad revenue - the right and the left are raising massive ammounts of money, and most of that goes straight into media buys. The closer the race, the more money the media corporations get, so they'll put their thumb on the scale, to keep things close.
Secondly, for major funders on the right, while winning the White House would be nice, it doesn't matter that much to them. They're going to keep supporting Romney/Ryan so they can keep their Overton Window open - instead of discussing how the government could best serve and support US citizens, we're going to be arguing about Mediscare, tax cuts for the wealthy, and so on. The right has been playing this game a long time, and they're very good at it - they're investing in their future. Romney and Ryan are useful noisemaking machines for them, worth throwing a few million/billion at.
For the right, from a tactical perspective (for those who are thinking tactically), Romney's already lost. He's too independent and unlikeable to be the crowd-pleasing puppet that Reagan was, and being tied to the specifics of the Ryan budget ended his chances. They're still going to play the election through, but they're not expecting to win. They'll keep running their memes, and going after Obama, but the smart ones are looking ahead to 2016.
From that perspective, Ryan is the most interesting aspect of the 2012 campaign - can he get traction, can he open up new voter markets, can he evolve his message successfully? The answer is likely not - by going centrist, Obama has backed the right into a corner, and the 1% narrative that was successfully established by the Occupy Movement neuters the Ryan budget and whatever it spawns by breeding with Romney. Ryan is a new shiny thing, and maybe some on the right fantasize that he's their Obama for 2016, but demographics are running strongly against the traditional Republican narrative, and he's likely going to get left by the wayside.
From a strategic perspective for the right, the main usefulness of the Romney/Ryan 2012 campaign is that it's going to shake things up. They're going to throw everything they have at Obama, and see what sticks. Since 2012's a loss, the major players on the right get to be playful - they're just going to f*ck around, see what gets traction, see which politicians and pundits they want to draft for 2016.
So where does that leave us? With an excellent opportunity to make a strong win in 2012, and set strong precedents for the future. Voter outreach and get-to-the-polls initiatives are going to be essential, and Romney/Ryan and the right's voter disenfranchisement initiatives provide excellent foils. We can start focussing down-ticket, and getting wins in Congress and at the state and county level. We can strengthen our relationship with groups and inidividuals who support and benefit from progressive initiatives.
But most importantly, we can effectively challenge a Republican narrative based on deception, manipulation, and fearmongering that has been reducing opportunities and support for the 99% since at least the Reagan years, and give Obama a strong mandate to make America a better place for all.