We have waited for this moment forever. We went through Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum as co-front runners. We've eagerly watched the likes of Jesus and Reagan being said simultaneously with the same conviction. We've protested Planned Parenthood and black people.
But now it's time for the first GOP caucus of 2012!
There is no proof that the world is going to end in 2012. However if you wanted to see the successful leeching of intelligence and reason out of a major political party, these last few months had to be a blast for you!
Entering the night, we knew that this would be a three person race between Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney & Ron Paul. Santorum went from polling in the high single digits to the top of the heap in a few days time. Romney has been stuck in between 23-25% of the vote since essentially 2008. Ron Paul is still in the same boat as he always is with supporters that doubt the existence of oxygen.
But even though we don't have a clearcut winner, I am certain that we have enough answers on what we are going to see going forward. It doesn't matter if Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney win Iowa, because now we have some clarity on where the battle lines have been drawn.
Mitt Romney has a problem. We all know that he'll more than likely be the nominee. We also know that most GOP voters, even the ones that are against him, are going to have to vote for him whether they like it or not. But with Mitt Romney he has a problem and his name is Newt Gingrich.
Newt Gingrich is one cantankerous politician. Most importantly, he's a veteran and he's out to seek blood. Newt Gingrich treats politics like it's organized crime. If you cross him, he'll do anything to get back at you. He takes politics personal and he's also not as unintelligent as his campaign has shown. He knows his chances of winning the nomination or even winning another state is probably at nil. But if anyone saw his speech tonight it proves that he wants to help Rick Santorum beat Mitt Romney.
Rick Santorum is the not-Romney. It's nearly a foregone conclusion that when the smoke clears, he will be the great, white conservative hope. It's been assumed that Santorum doesn't have the organization or time to make a run in New Hampshire due to his low poll numbers. He has been to New Hampshire more than a few candidates have and I think his low polling numbers are more based off the lack of traction he had beforehand.
With a narrow win or a close second, Santorum has proved to be a good marketer of himself. Santorum is not a weak man, he might wear the Mr. Rogers sweatervests but he is not a "nice" man. He won't win in New Hampshire but can he do enough to win the PR battle? As in, will a 15% showing by Santorum (Huckabee did 13%) earn more attention than a widely expected Romney victory? That is to be seen but with Newt Gingrich, Romney will have to start proving to voters that he is the man.
Another interesting subplot is that of Michele Bachmann. Bachmann called herself a non-politician in her post-Iowa speech. Well that proves one thing and that is that even after 10+ years as a politician, Michele Bachmann admits she has no idea on how to do her job. But every 1% she gets, no matter how minimal (because she hasn't mentioned dropping out yet) it is; hurts Santorum. Bachmann does have an ego the size of Minnesota and I wouldn't be shocked if she stuck in this race for a little bit longer than expected.
Rick Perry struggled reading through his prepared words. Whether that was out of emotion or seeing multi-syllable words is to be determined. I actually thought he would go to South Carolina and blast Romney, but it seems he's in "reassessing" mode which looks to be an imminent suspension of campaign.
Ron Paul is a different man. One thing MSNBC has been harping on, incorrectly, is that people should be thinking "how can we get the Paul bloc of voters?". Let me be frank, there is no way you can get these people to support anyone but a Paul. Ron Paul supporters see all politicians as corrupt Freemasons who are using the media to silence Ron Paul. I'm not exaggerating either. This is what these people believe. He is a nonfactor in terms of winning and doing any better than what he did tonight. However, he has enough support to do some damage as a third party candidate for Americans Elect.
The one thing we must keep an eye on is Mitt Romney's poise. While he comes across as Tom Brady cool in the pocket, when he faces any amount of pressure he turns into Tim Tebow. We all remember the $10,000 bet he offered Rick Perry. Romney has had his "corporations are people too" gaffe and whenever he gets into a debate, he often gets pretty heated. If Gingrich can get under his skin, there is a chance that this race isn't effectively over by Florida.
All I can say is that there is one winner tonight and that is President Barack Obama.