Although I am a big fan of Daily Kos and have been reading it since the 2008 election, this is my very first diary. The reason that I have not posted before is that I am a fairly shy person so please bear with me.
In July of this year, the Chief Financial Correspondent for the NY Times, Floyd Norris wrote,
"If that analysis is correct the job numbers are likely to seem poor for the next two months, but to pick up with the September report on Oct. 5, and then to look impressive in the October report, which will appear on Nov. 2, four days before the election."
Here is the link to the entire post
September Jobs Reports: More after the jump.
Norris's prediction is based on the idea that because the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) numbers are adjusted for seasonal variations, they make things look worse in the summer and better in the winter than they are in reality.
This morning Jack Welch shamefully questioned the BLS numbers. One of the comments to Norris' post predicted conspiracy theories:
Good analysis. Seasonal adjustment, with the best of intent, is a tricky proposition to get "right." And thanks for the very early heads-up on the conspiracy theories that will circulate around 8:31 am on November 2nd.