My number 1 passion since childhood has been baseball in general and the Chicago Cubs in particular. I`ve known the name Nate Silver long before he began 538. I think he`s very good at his craft. So I have to admit to being concerned at the big drop in the Presidents chances of reelection over at 538. 10 days ago he was as close to a lock as you could get, with his nowcast in the upper 90 percentile. Now it`s a toss up. Call me a troll if you will, but that troubles me. I`ll be troubled until it gets back over 66.7%, and I won`t feel comfortable until it his 75%. However, there is one metric that is still greatly in the Democrats favor.
The Senate is now at 83.6% chance of remaining a Democratic majority, it`s highest mark. 82.4% in Wisconsin,79.5% in Missouri,79.2% in Massachusettes, 77.1% in Virginia, 72.4% in Connecticut. Even Indiana is slightly over 50% chance of being a Democratic seat. All the money thrown at Senator Brown in Ohio has meant nothing, as his chances are now over 90%. Nevada has slipped a bit, and Montana is not looking great for Senator Tester. But overall, the Senate still looks great for Team Blue.