After a mixed day of polling yesterday -- which served as a victory for the Romney campaign after three weeks of universally bad polling -- today's numbers reverted right back to universally bad. Many in the media jumped to the "race is tightening" headlines yesterday, but whatever minor shifts to Romney we saw in some polls yesterday wasn't really backed up today, meaning it may have just been statistical noise.
Here are the numbers, followed by my analysis.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.
* VIRGINIA: Obama 48%, Romney 40% -- Obama +13% since March (Roanoke)
* NEVADA: Obama 53%, Romney 42% -- Obama +5% since July (WeAskAmerica)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 54%, Romney 39% -- Obama +10% since 3 weeks ago (WMUR)
* COLORADO: Obama 49%, Romney 46% -- Romney +1% since June (WeAskAmerica)
* MISSOURI: Romney 48%, Obama 45% -- Obama +6% since July (WeAskAmerica)
Obama got some monster numbers in Virginia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Hard to make any case of a Romney comeback with numbers like that. The Obama +15% in New Hampshire poll is probably an outlier, but regardless, it looks like New Hampshire is starting to come solidly back to Obama after flirting with Romney for a bit of time over the summer. Obama continues to have a small lead in Colorado, but it remains a stubborn state and one in which Romney has not seen the big fall he has gotten in states like Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, etc. over the past few weeks.
The Missouri number is also particularly interesting, as we've now seen a couple of polls showing a close race in the state. To put things in perspective, Romney's 5.0% average lead in Missouri is now smaller than Obama's 5.5% average lead in Ohio. Pretty amazing. I'm not really sure it makes much sense for the Obama campaign to invest many resources in Missouri, given that it is unlikely to be a tipping point state for them and they already have one state (North Carolina) that they're gambling in. Still though, interesting to see Missouri so close this year.
We also saw Obama expand his lead from 4% back to 6% in the Gallup poll. His decline in that poll yesterday, along with CNN's national poll showing the race going from a 6% Obama lead to a 3% Obama lead, were the main data points that got people thinking the race could be tightening. With Gallup now right back to the 6% lead they had before, it seems like the changes we're seeing right now are just minor statistical noise.
I also think that while the national race may have tightened ever so slightly, the swing states are not following that trend (NBC/WSJ will release a poll later today showing the national race tightening a bit, but Obama's large swing state leads holding up). Swing states seem to be operating in their own microcosm this year, a result of the enormous amount of money being spent there and the saturation of the two campaign having huge presences in those states. Until Romney can figure out how to get states like Ohio to tighten, the fundamentals of the race will remain the same. It doesn't really matter how much Romney wins Oklahoma by, or if Obama wins California by 3% less than he did in 2008. All that matters is the swing states, and Obama is currently in comfortable positions in most of them.
With the debate tomorrow, the poll numbers that will matter are the ones we begin to see over the weekend and next week, which will factor in the reactions to the debate. We should also get some instant polls from the major networks tomorrow right after the debate, which will give us an idea of who "won" and who "lost." I'll be posting my detailed preview of the debate late tonight at No We Can't Politics so be sure to check it out and bookmark the site. I'll also be tweeting live debate thoughts tomorrow so be sure to follow me on Twitter.
Originally published at No We Can't Politics.