UPDATE: Looks like Obama is at only 70% with black voters. Even though there's probably at least a 10% margin of error on that subsample, it suggests the poll is significantly understating Obama's support in the urban counties!
All - good news tonight. It's clear that Obama's support is still very stable in Ohio, which is great news. At this point, stability in Ohio is deadly to the Romney campaign.
This is all pre-debate. Sample is D +7, fairly consistent with what we've seen in other polls of Ohio. Clearly, Obama and Romney are picking up undecideds as leaners are "coming home". Since SUSA's last poll, Obama and Romney are up +2.
Plus, deeper in the crosstabs - 26% have already voted. Much of the cake is being baked as we speak, it appears.
In an election in Ohio today for President of the United States, Barack Obama remains where he has been for the past 2 SurveyUSA weekly tracking polls -- ever-so-slightly ahead of Mitt Romney in the battle for the Buckeye State's 18 electoral votes, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV in Columbus. 15 days until votes are counted, it's Obama 47%, Romney 44%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 week ago, Obama and Romney are both up 2 points. Obama led by 3 points last week, leads by 3 points today.
However, it troubles me to see Sherrod Brown losing some momentum...
An election today for United States Senator from Ohio is too-close-to-call. Democrat Sherrod Brown today is at 43%, Republican Josh Mandel is at 42%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 1 week ago, Brown is flat, Mandel is up 4 points. Mandel had led by 5, now leads by 1. The week-on-week movement comes from:
* Independents, where Mandel last week led by 3 points and today leads by 13 points, a 10-point right turn.
* Union households, where last week Brown was up 14 points and today he is up 5 points, a 9-point right turn.
* Middle-income voters, where Brown had led by 16 points, and today is tied, a 16-point right turn.
* Men, where last week Mandel was at 42% and today he is at 47%.
Plus - it was a cell phone poll, pre-debate, and it appears that both cell phones and tablet users (interesting!) were included.
Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 725 state of Ohio adults 10/20/12 through 10/22/12. Of the adults, 625 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 609 were determined by SurveyUSA to have either already voted or to be certain to do so before the 11/06/12 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (76% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (24% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. All interviews were conducted after the 2nd Presidential debate and before the 3rd Presidential debate. The party composition of SurveyUSA's 10/15/12 poll was 32% Republican, 39% Democrat. The party composition of today's 10/22/12 poll is 32% Republican, 39% Democrat.