This is going to be short ... I've been following the posts by MattTX on the votes going on in NC. Here is a link to his latest post.
Today PPP released a poll saying the race is tied.
PPP also said Obama is winning Obama 57 vs Romney 42 in those who have voted, but losing in those yet to vote Romney 50 (earlier I wrote 55, my bad!) vs. Obama 45
According to MattTX, almost 1 million have voted. More than 4 million voted in 2008, and I'd bet it will be closer to 5 million this time around.
UPDATE: To be more exact, it is 4.3 million voted in 2008. Turn out seems to be up by 20% so far ... and certainly some of that will be election day voters who are motivated to vote early, but to be generous with the estimate just assume 20% additional turnout stays steady. That gives a 2012 total vote count of 5.2 million.
math below...
UPDATED VALUES as of 14:30 MDT.
So if about 20% have voted then the final numbers on election day would be
Obama 0.57*(1,000,000) + 0.45*(4,200,000) = 2,460,000 ---> 47.3%
Romney 0.42*(1,000,000) + 0.50*(4,200,000) = 2,520,000 ---> 48.5%
Not quite the tie PPP suggests, but it is always good to pretend you are down a few points. We need to bring out an additional 60,000 Obama voters (or more) in the remaining days.
Thank the mystical sky being of your choice that we have early voting because we still have time to correct this. So please, if you are in NC .. or a neighboring state. Consider spending a few hours this weekend in NC and help GOTV there. Lets keep NC blue this time around.