I haven't seen much about the future of the House of Representatives until Sunday when one article predicted there will be no real change in control of the House.
The rather bleak article in a DC news outlet --that's long past its glory days-- gave several reasons why Pelosi would not be holding the gavel over the next two years.
Analysts cite several factors why the Democrats haven't been able to take advantage.
First was a redistricting process that made some Republicans virtually impervious to a challenge and re-election more difficult for about 10 Democrats. A few Democratic incumbents have stumbled in their first competitive races in years. And Republicans have leveraged their majority into a fund-raising operation that has out-muscled the Democrats.
That means that regardless of who wins the White House, the Republican caucus of Speaker John A. Boehner (Ohio) will remain a critical player in the coming showdowns over tax and spending cuts.
(Pundit) Rothenberg predicted modest gains for Democrats of about a handful of seats, a symbolic victory but well short of Pelosi's "Drive to 25" for the net gain needed for the majority. Privately, Democrats do not dispute those estimates but contend the gains will set the stakes for a 2014 campaign in which they will shoot for the majority, particularly if Mitt Romney wins the presidency and is facing his first midterm election. [This is b.s. No one knowledgeable is arguing that Romney is going anywhere but oblivion.]
Republicans, however, believe they have used congressional redistricting to shore up enough of their seats to remain in power for years to come. Rather than aggressively seek more seats, Boehner's leadership team counseled Republican-led state legislatures to fortify those Republicans already serving on Capitol Hill.
The result has been that House Republicans start off with 190 districts that have a historic performance safely in their corner, while Democrats begin with just 146 such districts, according to an analysis by the independent Cook Political Report.
That leaves just 99 districts viewed as regularly competitive, an all-time low. Democrats will likely have to carry 72 of those 99 seats to reach the bare majority of 218.
"That's a really bad omen for Democrats, not just this year but in future years,"
said David Wasserman, the House editor for the Cook report.
A few tea baggers just might be sent packing but the numbers don't add up to a sweep.
"Democrats have put a few high profile tea-party lawmakers on the defensive like Rep. Joe Walsh (R-Ill.) ... (who) is running behind in his suburban Chicago district" and "In Florida, Rep. Allen West (R)" and "Republican Reps. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and Steve King (Iowa) are fighting for their political lives. Bachmann's Quixotic presidential campaign left her open to charges of ignoring her district."
Sure, I hope they all go down in ignominy but it is truly too bad about the probability that Repubs keep control of the House.
If Obama has coattails, is it too much to suppose these pundits will be proven wrong?
Nate Silver last wrote in his usual nuanced manner about the House June 23
In mid-September Nancy Pelosi expressed confidence that Dems would take back the house. She characterized Medicare as the central issue.
Could that have been why the administration released a story to Robert Pear at the NYT U.S. Prepares to Sponsor Health Insurance Plans saying that:
"The Obama administration will soon take on a new role as the
sponsor of at least two nationwide health insurance plans to be operated under contract with the federal government and offered to consumers in every state.
These multistate plans were included in President Obama's health care law as a
substitute for a pure government-run health insurance program — the public option
sought by many liberal Democrats and reviled by Republicans. Supporters of the national plans say they will increase competition in state health insurance markets, many of which are dominated by a handful of companies.
The national plans will compete directly with other private insurers and may have some significant advantages, including a federal seal of approval. Premiums and benefits for the multistate insurance plans will be negotiated by the United States Office of Personnel Management, the agency that arranges health benefits for federal employees.
Do you know anyone with a handle on who will control the House over the next two years?
If so, please link to published reports. Thanks.