If Romney wins in Wisconsin, or Ohio or Pennsylvania, this is probably the reason why.
An R-Squared value shows how directly dependent one variable is to another. This regression model proves that Mitt Romney's performance when compared to Rick Santorum in the Wisconsin primary had a direct dependence on the size of the ward's total votes. As the wards decreased in size, Romney's advantage went down according to a logarithmic function of the ward size. This logarithmic function is over 75% consistent with each datapoint and is consistent through the largest 1,400 wards.
Extra Wonky Updated Graph
larger size
words at the bottom of the graph are:
Each datapoint above represents a group of 100 Wisconsin wards, sorted from largest to smallest. Blue curve shows the percentage of the TOTAL WISCONSIN VOTE that each grouping represents. (i.e. The 100 largest wards together produced 13% of the total Wisconsin Vote, the next 100 smaller wards produced 8.91% of the total). Red curve shows Romney's vote gain over Santorum as a percent of the total votes cast within the 100 wards.
Full sized image here:
http://i49.tinypic.com/...
For comparison purposes, here are the other charts for the Wisconsin 2012 Republican primary.
Ron Paul vs Newt Gingrich by Ward Size
Rick Santorum vs Newt Gingrich by Ward Size
Rick Santorum vs Ron Paul by Ward Size
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Based on this data and the very high correlation (Regression R-Squared) value between Romney's gain over Santorum, among like-minded republican voters, with no attributable correlation among any of the other candidates, I would STRONGLY suggest that Wisconsin (and Pennsylvania and Ohio) legal advocacy groups begin preparing recount injunctions for the 300 largest reporting precincts/wards in your state.
a random sample of 10% of these 300 largest precincts/wards will provide the necessary proof to determine if there was impropriety in Tuesday's upcoming vote. The recount requirement would have to be a 100% total count of all paper ballots produced within those 30 precincts/wards chosen by the random sample.
note: data downloaded from the state of Wisconsin Government Accountability Board:
Excel Spreadsheet: http://gab.wi.gov/...
Wisconsin's 300
TOWN OF GREENVILLE WARDS 1-9
TOWN OF HUDSON Wards 1-14
TOWN OF WAUKESHA WARDS 2-7 AND 9-11
TOWN OF NORWAY WARDS 1-11
TOWN OF MUKWONAGO WARDS 1-8
VILLAGE OF MUKWONAGO Wards 1 - 10
TOWN OF GRAND RAPIDS WARDS 1 - 11
CITY OF MONROE wards 1 - 9
TOWN OF WASHINGTON Wards 1-13
VILLAGE OF GERMANTOWN Wards 12 -15
TOWN OF RIB MOUNTAIN WARDS 1-10
TOWN OF WATERFORD WARDS 1-10
TOWN OF WEST BEND Wards 1-10
VILLAGE OF MCFARLAND WARDS 1-10
TOWN OF MERTON Wards 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 9
VILLAGE OF GERMANTOWN Wards 1,8,10 & 11
TOWN OF TAYCHEEDAH Wards 1-5
TOWN OF MIDDLETON WARDS 1- 8
VILLAGE OF JACKSON WARDS 1-9
CITY OF DELAFIELD WARDS 1-4, 7-8, 11-14
CITY OF MUSKEGO WARDS 1-3
CITY OF OAK CREEK WARDS 13-15
TOWN OF JACKSON WARDS 1 - 6
VILLAGE OF GERMANTOWN Wards 3,16,4,17 & 9
TOWN OF TRENTON Wards 1-8
TOWN OF ERIN WARDS 1-4
CITY OF BURLINGTON WARDS 5-8
CITY OF RICE LAKE Wards 1-13
VILLAGE OF BELLEVUE WARDS 7-10
VILLAGE OF SUMMIT WARDS 1 - 6
VILLAGE OF SUAMICO WARDS 1-4
CITY OF FITCHBURG WARD 5 - 9
CITY OF PEWAUKEE WARDS 5-7
CITY OF ONALASKA Ward 9-12
TOWN OF VERNON Wards 1, 8-11
TOWN OF LEDGEVIEW WARDS 2-10
TOWN OF POLK WARDS 1-6
VILLAGE OF ELM GROVE Wards 1-4
TOWN OF ALGOMA Wards 3-6
CITY OF WEST BEND Wards 7-8
CITY OF FITCHBURG WARD 15 - 19
VILLAGE OF WAUNAKEE Wards 1 - 5
CITY OF SUN PRAIRIE WARDS 1-5
TOWN OF TROY Wards 1 - 7
VILLAGE OF WAUNAKEE Wards 6 - 10
TOWN OF WINDSOR WARDS 1-10
CITY OF MIDDLETON WARDS 1-5, 8-9
CITY OF MEQUON WARDS 16-17-18
VILLAGE OF WATERFORD Wards 1-7
TOWN OF OTTAWA WARDS 1-5
TOWN OF DELAVAN Wards 1-11
VILLAGE OF RICHFIELD WARDS 5 AND 6
VILLAGE OF RICHFIELD WARDS 7-9
TOWN OF IXONIA WARD 1-6
TOWN OF ST. JOSEPH Wards 1-6
VILLAGE OF SLINGER wards 1-8
CITY OF LAKE MILLS Wards 1-8
TOWN OF ALGOMA Wards 1-2, 7-10
CITY OF SUN PRAIRIE WARDS 15-19
VILLAGE OF MOUNT PLEASANT WARDS 3,4,5,6,7
TOWN OF DUNN Wards 1 - 7
CITY OF OAK CREEK WARDS 7-9
TOWN OF RAYMOND WARDS 1-6
TOWN OF FARMINGTON Wards 1-5
VILLAGE OF OOSTBURG Wards 1-4
CITY OF MEQUON WARDS 5-6-7A-7B
CITY OF MUSKEGO WARDS 11 & 12
CITY OF ONALASKA Ward 1-4
VILLAGE OF PEWAUKEE Wards 1 - 5
VILLAGE OF MOUNT PLEASANT WARDS 10,11,12,15
CITY OF WEST BEND Wards 23, 24, 26
VILLAGE OF ELM GROVE Wards 5-8
CITY OF DE PERE WARDS 1-2, 4
CITY OF VERONA WARDS 1-5
TOWN OF LISBON WARDS 4 - 5
VILLAGE OF ROCHESTER Wards 1 - 6
VILLAGE OF GERMANTOWN Wards 2,5,6 & 7
TOWN OF SALEM Wards 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 &10
TOWN OF MENASHA WARDS 1,2,4,7
VILLAGE OF CALEDONIA WARDS 3,4,5
TOWN OF BURLINGTON WARDS 1-7
TOWN OF GRAND CHUTE WARDS 1-3
CITY OF MEQUON WARDS 19-20-21
CITY OF MEQUON WARDS 3-4
CITY OF OCONOMOWOC Wards 1-3
TOWN OF HARTFORD WARDS 1-5
VILLAGE OF KEWASKUM WARDS 1 - 5
TOWN OF WILSON WARDS 1-4
CITY OF SUN PRAIRIE WARDS 6-9
TOWN OF EAST TROY WARDS 1 - 6
CITY OF WEST BEND Wards 4-6
TOWN OF DELAFIELD WARDS 1, 2, 5, 6
TOWN OF LAFAYETTE Wards 1 - 9
CITY OF HARTFORD Wards 1-5
TOWN OF EAGLE WARDS 1-4
VILLAGE OF HARTLAND WARDS 7-12
TOWN OF BUCHANAN Wards 1,4,6-9
VILLAGE OF HOLMEN Wards 1-11
VILLAGE OF MERTON WARDS 1-4
CITY OF NEENAH Wards 9-12
VILLAGE OF ALLOUEZ WARDS 5-6
TOWN OF SHELBY Wards 1-6
CITY OF MEQUON WARDS 13-14-15
TOWN OF WESTPORT Wards 1 - 5
CITY OF MANITOWOC Wards 19 - 20
CITY OF VERONA WARDS 6-9
TOWN OF GENEVA Wards 1-8
VILLAGE OF MOUNT PLEASANT WARDS 19,21,22,23
CITY OF HARTFORD Wards 6-10, 15-17, 20
CITY OF OCONOMOWOC Wards 4-6
CITY OF SOUTH MILWAUKEE Wards 1 - 4
CITY OF SOUTH MILWAUKEE Wards 9 - 12
CITY OF MEQUON WARDS 1-2
VILLAGE OF NORTH HUDSON Wards 1-6
CITY OF BURLINGTON WARDS 1-4
TOWN OF CLAYTON Wards 1-7
VILLAGE OF PLEASANT PRAIRIE Wards 1-3
VILLAGE OF HOBART WARDS 1-5
VILLAGE OF SUAMICO WARDS 6-8
CITY OF NEENAH Wards 21-25
VILLAGE OF RICHFIELD WARDS 1 AND 2
CITY OF ONALASKA Ward 5-8
TOWN OF LISBON WARDS 2 - 3
CITY OF MAYVILLE WARDS 1 - 7
TOWN OF LIMA Wards 1 - 4
TOWN OF GRAND CHUTE WARDS 15-17
TOWN OF SHEBOYGAN WARDS 1 - 5
TOWN OF CENTER Ward 1-7
CITY OF PEWAUKEE WARDS 1-2
VILLAGE OF HARTLAND WARDS 1-6
VILLAGE OF UNION GROVE WARDS 1-7
TOWN OF OCONOMOWOC WARDS 1, 2 & 4
CITY OF MANITOWOC Wards 15 - 16
TOWN OF FREEDOM Wards 1 - 6
CITY OF MEQUON WARDS 8-9-10
TOWN OF ONALASKA Wards 1 - 8
CITY OF HARTFORD Wards 11-14
CITY OF WAUPACA Wards 1 - 12
TOWN OF VERNON Wards 2, 4 & 5
TOWN OF BARTON Wards 1 - 4
CITY OF DE PERE WARDS 6-8
CITY OF GREEN BAY WARD 45
CITY OF OAK CREEK WARDS 11-12
TOWN OF ADDISON WARDS 1-6
TOWN OF MENASHA WARDS 3,5,6
VILLAGE OF GREENDALE WARDS 1-2
CITY OF SOUTH MILWAUKEE Wards 13 -16
VILLAGE OF EAST TROY Wards 1-5
VILLAGE OF FOX POINT WARDS 1-4
CITY OF OAK CREEK WARDS 4-6
CITY OF DE PERE WARD 10-12
TOWN OF NEENAH Wards 1 - 4
CITY OF MUSKEGO WARDS 4 & 5
TOWN OF FARMINGTON WARDS 1-6
CITY OF BLOOMER Wards 1 - 4
TOWN OF EMPIRE Wards 1-4
TOWN OF MERTON Wards, 4, 5, 6, 10
VILLAGE OF RICHFIELD WARDS 3 AND 4
TOWN OF OCONOMOWOC WARDS 5,8,9 & 10
TOWN OF BLACK WOLF Wards 1 - 3
TOWN OF OREGON WARDS 1-4
CITY OF MUSKEGO WARDS 6 & 8
TOWN OF GENESEE WARDS 4, 7 & 8
VILLAGE OF HOWARD WARDS 1-2, 11-12
TOWN OF FOND DU LAC Wards 1-8
VILLAGE OF WALES WARDS 1-4
CITY OF OCONOMOWOC Wards 10-12
VILLAGE OF STURTEVANT WARDS 1-8
VILLAGE OF COTTAGE GROVE WARDS 1-9
TOWN OF OCONOMOWOC WARDS 3, 6 & 7
CITY OF MADISON WARD 38
CITY OF MONONA Wards 1-5
TOWN OF ARBOR VITAE Wards 1-7
CITY OF OCONOMOWOC Wards 7-9
VILLAGE OF CALEDONIA WARDS 8,11,13
CITY OF PEWAUKEE WARDS 9-10
VILLAGE OF WEST SALEM Wards 1-6
VILLAGE OF CALEDONIA WARDS 14,15,17
TOWN OF OSHKOSH Ward 1 - 5
TOWN OF SUGAR CREEK Wards 1-5
CITY OF OCONTO Wards 1-7
VILLAGE OF FOX POINT WARDS 5-9
CITY OF HORICON WARDS 1-6
CITY OF WAUPUN WARDS 9, 10, 11, 12
CITY OF WEST BEND Wards 1-3
CITY OF WEST BEND Wards 9-10
CITY OF MIDDLETON WARDS 6-7, 14-18
TOWN OF GRAND CHUTE WARDS 4-7
TOWN OF PLEASANT VALLEY Wards 1-4
VILLAGE OF CALEDONIA WARDS 6,7,20
CITY OF FORT ATKINSON WARDS 1-3
TOWN OF GRAND CHUTE WARDS 12-14
TOWN OF DOVER WARDS 1-8
TOWN OF KOSHKONONG Ward 1-6
CITY OF MUSKEGO WARDS 15 & 16
TOWN OF SCOTT Wards 1 - 4
CITY OF ALTOONA Wards 6-11
CITY OF OAK CREEK WARDS 16-19
CITY OF MILTON WARD 1-8
TOWN OF LYONS Wards 1-7
VILLAGE OF PLEASANT PRAIRIE Wards 8-11
CITY OF LA CROSSE Ward 9
VILLAGE OF SHOREWOOD WARDS 1 - 4
VILLAGE OF GREENDALE WARDS 9-10
CITY OF NEW BERLIN Ward 18
CITY OF BROOKFIELD WARD 5
CITY OF JANESVILLE WARD 27
TOWN OF HOLLAND Wards 1 - 3
CITY OF STURGEON BAY Wards 1 - 6, 22 - 24
CITY OF MADISON WARD 79
VILLAGE OF PLEASANT PRAIRIE Wards 12-14
VILLAGE OF BROWN DEER Wards 5 - 6
CITY OF NEW BERLIN Ward 27
TOWN OF ASHIPPUN WARDS 1-4
TOWN OF CAMPBELL Wards 1 - 6
CITY OF EDGERTON Wards 1 - 6
VILLAGE OF LAKE HALLIE Wards 1 - 8
TOWN OF PLYMOUTH Wards 1 - 4
CITY OF LA CROSSE Ward 21
VILLAGE OF DEFOREST WARDS 1-6
VILLAGE OF TWIN LAKES Wards 1 - 8
VILLAGE OF MENOMONEE FALLS WARD 15
CITY OF NEW BERLIN Ward 24
TOWN OF GRAFTON WD 3,4
CITY OF NEENAH Wards 1-4
VILLAGE OF ASHWAUBENON WARD 9-10
VILLAGE OF MENOMONEE FALLS WARD 14
CITY OF MUSKEGO WARDS 9 & 10
CITY OF OSHKOSH D11 W22
TOWN OF SEVASTOPOL WARDS 1 - 5
CITY OF NEENAH Wards 13-16
CITY OF MANITOWOC Wards 11 - 12
VILLAGE OF HALES CORNERS WARDS 1-3
CITY OF WAUWATOSA WARD 4
VILLAGE OF THIENSVILLE WARD 1-2
VILLAGE OF SUSSEX Wards, 2,4
CITY OF WAUWATOSA WARD 12
VILLAGE OF GREENDALE WARDS 3-4
CITY OF BROOKFIELD WARD 12
VILLAGE OF BROWN DEER Wards 3 - 4
VILLAGE OF NORTH PRAIRIE Wards 1-3
CITY OF MIDDLETON WARDS 10-13
TOWN OF SHEBOYGAN WARDS 6 - 10
VILLAGE OF CALEDONIA WARDS 16, 18,19
VILLAGE OF MENOMONEE FALLS WARD 1
CITY OF SUN PRAIRIE WARDS 10-14
TOWN OF GENESEE WARDS 1,6 & 9
TOWN OF MUKWONAGO WARDS 9-11
VILLAGE OF HOWARD WARDS 9-10, 16-18
VILLAGE OF PEWAUKEE Wards 6 - 10
TOWN OF LODI WARDS 1 - 5
CITY OF WATERTOWN Wards 17 - 18
VILLAGE OF WESTON Ward 9 - 13
CITY OF VIROQUA Wards 1-9
TOWN OF MERRILL WARDS 1-7
CITY OF MEQUON WARDS 11-12
TOWN OF WESCOTT Wards 1-4
TOWN OF DELAFIELD WARDS 9, 10, 11
VILLAGE OF BRISTOL Wards 1,2,3,8
TOWN OF CEDARBURG WARDS 5-6,10
TOWN OF BRISTOL WARDS 1-4
VILLAGE OF MOUNT HOREB WARDS 5-8
CITY OF BERLIN WARDS 1-6
CITY OF LANCASTER Wards 1- 6
CITY OF OAK CREEK WARDS 1-2
CITY OF FORT ATKINSON WARDS 7-9
CITY OF WAUWATOSA WARD 7
TOWN OF GRAFTON WD 1,2,5
CITY OF BROOKFIELD WARD 3
TOWN OF WINNECONNE WARDS 1-3, 4S
CITY OF COLUMBUS Wards 1-8
CITY OF WEST BEND Wards 15-19, 25
CITY OF SOUTH MILWAUKEE Wards 5 - 8
VILLAGE OF GREENDALE WARDS 5-6
CITY OF APPLETON Ward 19
CITY OF BROOKFIELD WARD 13
TOWN OF SUGAR CAMP Wards 1-2
TOWN OF FREDONIA WARDS 1-4
CITY OF WEST BEND Wards 11-14
CITY OF NEW BERLIN Ward 5
VILLAGE OF ALLOUEZ WARDS 1-2
TOWN OF PLEASANT SPRINGS Wards 1-4
CITY OF JEFFERSON WARDS 1-5
CITY OF MENASHA Wards 10, 11, 12, 13
TOWN OF RANDALL Wards 1 - 7
VILLAGE OF GREENDALE WARDS 7-8
TOWN OF SOMERSET WARDS 1 - 6
TOWN OF COTTAGE GROVE Wards 1 - 7
VILLAGE OF SHOREWOOD WARDS 5 - 8
TOWN OF YORKVILLE WARDS 1-5
TOWN OF VERNON Wards 3, 6 & 7
VILLAGE OF BROWN DEER Wards 1 - 2
CITY OF WATERTOWN Wards 1 - 2
CITY OF ALGOMA WARDS 1 -6
VILLAGE OF WHITEFISH BAY Wards 8 & 10
TOWN OF SAUKVILLE WARDS 1-3
TOWN OF MENASHA WARDS 8,9,10
VILLAGE OF ALLOUEZ WARDS 7-9
CITY OF WAUWATOSA WARD 16
VILLAGE OF WIND POINT WARDS 1-3
CITY OF DE PERE WARD 14-15