County first!
Here are some tools for advanced poll watchers, who might be watching not just statewide percentages but also county percentages as they come in on Tuesday night. Why on earth would you want to watch county percentages, you might be asking? Well, votes don't come in uniformly across a state; instead, different counties might report more quickly, and depending how those counties might lean politically, the overall percentage statewide might look skewed midway through the reporting process, if, say, a particularly conservative or particularly liberal large county had disproportionately reported. Here, then, are the tools you need to "unskew" those results, and get a sense of whether votes are coming in county-by-county in a manner that would get Democrats just over the 50 percent mark in each state.
These numbers shouldn't be viewed as the gospel truth; this is a process of what's known as "naive extrapolation," assuming that the variation will be consistent from county-to-county, year-to-year. That doesn't take into account that different candidates may have regional strengths that cause the numbers to be weighted differently than the presidential numbers (case in point, the Indiana Senate race; Joe Donnelly is from South Bend, so you'd expect him to overperform in St. Joseph County, allowing him to underperform a tiny bit in the state's other counties). It also doesn't reflect population changes since 2008 (take Douglas County in Colorado for example; because this exurban area is growing so rapidly, it probably now represents more than 6.3 percent of the state's votes ... but, because the new residents may not be proportionately conservative as the county was before, there's also the possibility that Democrats might overperform there relative to 2008 anyway).
I'm including all of the presidential swing states (starting above the fold with Ohio, since that's the state everyone will be focused on, at least for the first part of the evening), and a handful of blue or red states with super-close Senate or gubernatorial races as well. You'll notice that one swing state (and two states with close Senate races, although those Senate races seem to have gotten much less close in recent weeks) are missing: New Hampshire, Connecticut and Masschusetts. That's because the New England states don't report votes by county, but rather by individual town. With all that in mind, here are the tables:
Ohio
County |
% of 2008
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/48 |
51/47 |
Cuyahoga |
11.7 |
68/31 |
69/30 |
Franklin |
9.8 |
59/40 |
60/39 |
Hamilton |
7.4 |
52/47 |
53/46 |
Montgomery |
4.9 |
51/47 |
52/46 |
Summit |
4.9 |
57/42 |
58/41 |
Lucas |
3.9 |
64/34 |
65/33 |
Stark |
3.3 |
51/47 |
52/46 |
Butler |
3.0 |
37/62 |
38/61 |
Lorain |
2.6 |
57/41 |
58/40 |
Mahoning |
2.2 |
61/37 |
62/36 |
Lake |
2.1 |
48/50 |
49/49 |
(Continues below the fold.)
Arizona
County |
% of 2008
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/48 |
45/53 |
Maricopa |
59.5 |
49/49 |
44/54 |
Pima |
17.1 |
57/41 |
52/46 |
Pinal |
4.6 |
47/51 |
42/56 |
Yavapai |
4.3 |
42/56 |
37/61 |
Mohave |
3.0 |
37/60 |
32/65 |
Coconino |
2.4 |
63/36 |
58/41 |
Cochise |
2.1 |
44/54 |
39/59 |
Colorado
County |
% of 2008
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/49 |
54/45 |
Jefferson |
12.3 |
50/49 |
54/45 |
El Paso |
11.4 |
36/63 |
40/59 |
Denver |
11.3 |
71/27 |
75/23 |
Arapahoe |
11.1 |
52/47 |
56/43 |
Boulder |
7.2 |
68/30 |
72/26 |
Larimer |
6.9 |
50/48 |
54/44 |
Adams |
6.7 |
54/44 |
58/40 |
Douglas |
6.3 |
37/62 |
41/58 |
Weld |
4.4 |
41/57 |
45/53 |
Pueblo |
3.0 |
53/46 |
57/42 |
Mesa |
2.9 |
30/68 |
34/64 |
Florida
County |
% of 2008
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/49 |
51/48 |
Miami-Dade |
10.3 |
57/43 |
58/42 |
Broward |
8.7 |
66/33 |
67/32 |
Palm Beach |
7.0 |
60/39 |
61/38 |
Hillsborough |
6.1 |
52/47 |
53/46 |
Pinellas |
5.5 |
52/46 |
53/45 |
Orange |
5.5 |
58/41 |
59/40 |
Duval |
5.0 |
48/52 |
49/51 |
Brevard |
3.4 |
43/57 |
44/56 |
Lee |
3.2 |
43/56 |
44/55 |
Polk |
2.9 |
45/53 |
46/52 |
Volusia |
2.9 |
51/48 |
52/47 |
Pasco |
2.6 |
47/52 |
48/51 |
Sarasota |
2.5 |
48/50 |
49/49 |
Seminole |
2.5 |
47/52 |
48/51 |
Indiana
County |
% of 2008
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/50 |
50/50 |
Marion |
13.8 |
64/35 |
64/35 |
Lake |
7.6 |
67/32 |
67/32 |
Allen |
5.5 |
47/52 |
47/52 |
Hamilton |
4.7 |
38/61 |
38/61 |
St. Joseph |
4.3 |
58/41 |
58/41 |
Vanderburgh |
2.8 |
51/48 |
51/48 |
Porter |
2.7 |
53/46 |
53/46 |
Elkhart |
2.6 |
44/55 |
44/55 |
Tippecanoe |
2.5 |
55/43 |
55/43 |
Hendricks |
2.4 |
38/61 |
38/61 |
Monroe |
2.3 |
65/33 |
65/33 |
Johnson |
2.1 |
37/62 |
37/62 |
Madison |
2.1 |
52/46 |
52/46 |
Iowa
County |
% of 2008
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/48 |
54/44 |
Polk |
13.9 |
52/46 |
56/42 |
Linn |
7.4 |
56/42 |
60/38 |
Scott |
5.6 |
53/46 |
57/42 |
Johnson |
4.7 |
66/32 |
70/28 |
Black Hawk |
4.2 |
56/42 |
60/38 |
Dubuque |
3.1 |
56/43 |
60/39 |
Story |
3.0 |
53/45 |
57/41 |
Woodbury |
2.9 |
45/54 |
49/50 |
Pottawatomie |
2.8 |
44/54 |
48/50 |
Dallas |
2.1 |
42/56 |
46/52 |
Montana
County |
% of 2008
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/46 |
47/49 |
Yellowstone |
14.3 |
48/49 |
45/52 |
Missoula |
12.0 |
65/32 |
62/35 |
Gallatin |
9.8 |
53/44 |
50/47 |
Flathead |
8.9 |
40/55 |
37/58 |
Cascade |
7.2 |
53/45 |
50/48 |
Lewis & Clark |
6.7 |
55/42 |
52/45 |
Ravalli |
4.5 |
41/56 |
38/59 |
Silver Bow |
3.5 |
72/25 |
69/28 |
Lake |
2.8 |
51/44 |
48/47 |
Nevada
County |
% of 2008
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/48 |
55/43 |
Clark |
67.3 |
53/44 |
58/39 |
Washoe |
18.6 |
50/48 |
55/43 |
Douglas |
2.7 |
36/62 |
41/57 |
Carson City |
2.4 |
44/53 |
49/48 |
Lyon |
2.2 |
35/63 |
40/58 |
North Carolina
County |
% of 2008
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/49 |
50/49 |
Wake |
10.3 |
57/42 |
57/42 |
Mecklenburg |
9.6 |
62/37 |
62/37 |
Guilford |
5.6 |
59/40 |
59/40 |
Forsyth |
3.9 |
55/44 |
55/44 |
Durham |
3.2 |
76/24 |
76/24 |
Cumberland |
3.0 |
59/41 |
59/41 |
Buncombe |
2.9 |
56/42 |
56/42 |
New Hanover |
2.3 |
49/50 |
49/50 |
Union |
2.0 |
36/63 |
36/63 |
Gaston |
2.0 |
37/62 |
37/62 |
North Dakota
County |
% of 2008
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/48 |
45/53 |
Cass |
22.6 |
57/40 |
52/45 |
Burleigh |
13.2 |
42/56 |
37/61 |
Grand Forks |
9.9 |
56/41 |
51/46 |
Ward |
8.1 |
44/53 |
39/58 |
Morton |
4.2 |
43/54 |
38/59 |
Stark |
3.5 |
39/58 |
34/63 |
Stutsman |
3.1 |
46/51 |
41/56 |
Williams |
3.0 |
36/62 |
31/67 |
Richland |
2.4 |
51/46 |
46/52 |
Pennsylvania
County |
% of 2008
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/48 |
54/44 |
Philadelphia |
11.9 |
79/20 |
83/16 |
Allegheny |
10.9 |
53/46 |
57/42 |
Montgomery |
7.0 |
56/43 |
60/39 |
Bucks |
5.5 |
50/49 |
54/45 |
Delaware |
4.9 |
56/43 |
60/39 |
Chester |
4.2 |
50/49 |
54/45 |
Lancaster |
3.8 |
37/59 |
43/55 |
York |
3.2 |
38/60 |
42/56 |
Berks |
3.0 |
50/49 |
54/45 |
Westmoreland |
3.0 |
37/62 |
41/58 |
Lehigh |
2.5 |
53/46 |
57/42 |
Luzerne |
2.3 |
49/49 |
53/45 |
Northampton |
2.3 |
51/47 |
55/43 |
Dauphin |
2.2 |
50/49 |
54/45 |
Erie |
2.1 |
55/44 |
59/39 |
Virginia
County |
% of 2008
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/49 |
53/46 |
Fairfax |
13.9 |
57/42 |
60/39 |
Virginia Beach |
5.4 |
46/53 |
49/50 |
Prince William |
4.4 |
55/45 |
58/42 |
Chesterfield |
4.4 |
43/56 |
46/53 |
Henrico |
4.2 |
53/46 |
56/43 |
Loudoun |
3.7 |
51/48 |
54/45 |
Arlington |
3.0 |
69/30 |
72/27 |
Chesapeake |
2.9 |
47/52 |
50/49 |
Richmond |
2.5 |
76/23 |
79/20 |
Norfolk |
2.4 |
74/31 |
71/28 |
Newport News |
2.2 |
61/38 |
64/35 |
Washington
County |
% of 2008
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/47 |
57/40 |
King |
30.3 |
63/35 |
70/28 |
Pierce |
10.9 |
48/50 |
55/43 |
Snohomish |
10.6 |
51/46 |
58/39 |
Spokane |
7.2 |
41/56 |
48/49 |
Clark |
6.0 |
45/53 |
52/46 |
Thurston |
4.2 |
53/45 |
60/38 |
Kitsap |
4.1 |
48/50 |
55/43 |
Whatcom |
3.3 |
51/47 |
58/40 |
Yakima |
2.5 |
37/61 |
44/54 |
Benton |
2.4 |
29/69 |
36/62 |
Wisconsin
County |
% of 2008
statewide vote |
What we need to
break 50% statewide |
2008 Pres. |
Statewide |
100.0 |
50/48 |
56/42 |
Milwaukee |
15.9 |
61/37 |
67/31 |
Dane |
9.5 |
67/32 |
73/26 |
Waukesha |
7.8 |
31/68 |
37/62 |
Brown |
4.2 |
48/51 |
54/45 |
Racine |
3.4 |
47/52 |
53/46 |
Outagamie |
3.1 |
49/49 |
55/43 |
Winnebago |
2.9 |
49/49 |
55/43 |
Rock |
2.7 |
58/41 |
64/35 |
Kenosha |
2.6 |
52/46 |
58/40 |
Washington |
2.5 |
29/70 |
35/64 |
Marathon |
2.3 |
48/51 |
54/45 |
La Crosse |
2.1 |
55/43 |
61/37 |
Sheboygan |
2.1 |
43/56 |
49/50 |