November 6th saw tremendous gains for Democrats and for progressive forces in the state of Maine. While much attention was focused on the passage of the citizen initiative to institute same-sex marriage, which will take effect from January 5, 2013, there were significant victories in many other races. Important for the long-term was scale of the Democratic tide that gave them large majorities in both the State Senate and the State House of Representatives. An almost immediate consequence is that Democrats will replace Republicans in the key positions of Secretary of State, Attorney General and State Treasurer. This means that GOP efforts to suppress the vote and to block parts of Obamacare are stopped dead in their tracks. And Tea Party-backed Governor Paul LePage will soon have to try to work not only with a Democratic legislature but with 3 state-wide constitutional officers. For details, click to read more below the orange-brown squiggle.
Here's a summary of what happened in Maine this election:
1. Obama-Biden carried the state with 56.4% of the vote, compared to Romney-Ryan's 41.2% - a margin of 15.2 percentage points. This was only slightly reduced from 2008, when Obama-Biden got 57.1% of the vote to McCain-Palin's 40.4% - a margin of 16.7 percentage points.
2. At various points in the campaign, Republicans suggested that Romney-Ryan might carry the 2nd Congressional District and win its one electoral vote (Maine, like Nebraska, splits its electoral votes). The American Crossroads Super-PAC had released a poll by NMB Research (10/12/12) that claimed Romney-Ryan was 5 points ahead of Obama-Biden, 49% to 44%. Nate Silver even calculated odds on whether ME-02 could be the victory that would put Romney-Ryan over 270. However Obama-Biden won 53% of the vote in the 2nd Congressional District on Election Day, whereas Romney-Ryan got just 45% - a margin of 8.0 percentage points.
3. Obama-Biden won every county in the state except one, Piscataquis (which is in the 2nd Congressional District). Piscataquis County also voted for McCain-Palin in 2008.
4. In early stages of the campaign, there was talk that Democratic Congressman Mike Michaud, who represents the 2nd Congressional District, could be unseated by Republican Kevin Raye, the current President of the State Senate. However, Michaud won re-election with 58.4% of the vote to Raye's 41.5% - outperforming Obama-Biden by 5.4 percentage points.
5. All seats in the Maine State Senate and the Maine House of Representatives were up for election on November 6th. Before the election, Republicans held majorities of 20 to 15 over Senate Democrats (including an Independent who often votes with the Democrats) and of 78 to 72 in the House. Afterwards, the positions of the two parties were completely reversed: Democrats had majorities of 21 to 14 in the Senate and 86 to 61 (plus 4 Independents) in the House.
6. The size of the new Democratic majorities in the legislature are close or sufficient to being veto-proof: 59-60% in the Senate, and 57-60% in the House - depending on how the Independents vote. This should create an effective check on the more radical Tea Party proposals of Governor LePage.
7. As often happens in wave elections, there were many close contests for the state legislature that are subject to recounts: 16 House seats had margins of less than 100 votes. Six House seats have margins of less than 20 votes. Five of those six are Republican holds. ME House District 70 currently has a margin of just 4 votes for the Republican. ME House 80 and ME House 137 both have margins of just 8 votes for Republicans. ME House 41 has a margin of 11 for the Republican. ME House 127 has a margin of 18 for the Republican. So it is possible that recounts will deliver more seats to the Democrats in the House.
8. Three state-wide offices in Maine are voted upon by the state legislature. The new Democratic-controlled Senate and House will put Democrats into these positions in their first session: December 4. These positions include the Secretary of State, the Attorney General, and the State Treasurer.
9. Secretary of State Charlie Summers, who ran for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Olympia Snowe, will now lose his job (NB His wife lost her legislative seat in this election, so they will both be out of work). Summers went along with Republican efforts to eliminate Election Day voter registration and suppress the student vote. His replacement by a Democrat will insure that the Secretary of State's office returns to its former practice of encouraging voter participation and facilitating registration.
10. Attorney General William Schneider joined with Republicans from other states to declare Obamacare unconstitutional. He has been enabler of Governor LePage's efforts to cut back on Medicaid payments as well as try to opt out of provisions of the Affordable Health Care Act. His replacement by a Democrat will make life much harder for the Governor to evade federal law.
11. State Treasurer Bruce Poliquin has been a lightening rod for criticism, because of his continued activities as a real estate developer in apparent violation of the state constitution's requirement that the Treasurer refrain from conducting private business on the side. He has also been a vocal leader of the Tea Party in Maine, despite personally benefiting from state tax breaks for supposed tree-farming near one of his real estate developments. Poliquin has also launched a crusade against affordable housing programs in the state, focusing his anger on the Maine Housing Authority. Anyone would be an improvement.
12. With Democrats gaining majorities in the state legislature and taking over the positions of Secretary of State, Attorney General and State Treasurer, it seems likely that many of the signature initiatives of Governor LePage will be blunted or reversed. This includes plans for stricter requirements for voter ID. Benefits in future elections are potentially great. The Bangor Daily News is reporting that Election Day voter registration was heavy this year, driven by turn-out of young adults eager to vote for same-sex marriage. These rights of these new voters will now be protected.
13. Last but not least, there was the 53% to 47% victory of the ballot initiative to institute same-sex marriage. What was widely expected to be a close vote turned out to be a safe margin of 6 percentage points in favor of marriage equality. The ballot initiative drew more younger voters to the polls, and thereby may have benefited Obama-Biden and the Democrats in this wave election.
After two years of being a laboratory for ideas ginned up by ALEC and the Koch Brothers, Maine is entering a new phase. And all eyes are looking ahead to the 2014 gubernatorial election. Governor LePage won last time with 39% of the vote. It will be important for Democrats to ensure that does not happen again and the gains made this year are solidified.