Another day, lots more early votes. Here are my updated calculations on the state of early voting in the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, and North Carolina, Please check my prior diary (http://www.dailykos.com/....) for the approach I'm using to calculate these values, but the bottom line is that I'm applying the current percentages of support by party from the most recent five polls in each of these swing states to the early voting totals as captured in the US Elections Project site.
The interesting part of this is that allows me to estimate how well Obama needs to perform on election day in order to win the state. Below are the current values:
CO: 51.8-48.2% Obama; 48.5% needed by Obama on Election Day
FL: 50.7-49.3% Obama; 49.8% needed by Obama on Election Day
IA: 58.1-41.9% Obama; 46.2% needed by Obama on Election Day
NV: 55-45% Obama; 44% needed by Obama on Election Day
NC: 55.2-44.8% Obama; 46.1% needed by Obama on Election Day
NOTES:
1) Colorado is closer than yesterday; early voters represent 53.9% of all voters in 2008!
2) Florida has switched back to slightly favorable, more because the negative Gravis poll has been balanced out by a couple of more...erm..."realistic" ones
3) Nevada is out of control - early voters represent 59.4% of all voters in 2008 - and note how low the percentage of votes that Obama needs on election day is: 44%
4) North Carolina also looks very good, but here perhaps more than in these other states, it's crucial that these early voters are not really cutting into Obama's base (some polls have shown a 2:1 expressed preference for Romney amongst those who haven't voted yet.)
Until tomorrow...