Edit:
I did not do my due diligence with this diary and I apologize for that. The resource that I was using was not using the 2010 official Census numbers, but the 2010 estimates. This mistake created some massive distortions in larger counties like Harris and Dallas (the "missing" 30,000 voters in each county referenced in my write-up, for instance), Tarrant, Denton, Collin, Travis, and Bexar. Because I have massive respect for the truth and for honesty - and because I know I'll have fun doing it - I'm going to re-do this diary with the actual growth numbers. :) For instance, Dallas County has 2,368,139 individuals instead of 2,377,642. This works out to have a growth rate of something slightly larger than 15.75%: 16.21%. I'll have to work out those numbers for all the larger counties that I've split.
KingofSpades inspired me with his Colorado in 2020 diary. So, given that Texas is poised to gain a whopping three new districts after just gaining four in 2010, I thought it would be interesting to game it out. I'm gonna go out on a limb ands say that this estimate is a lowball, considering that Texas is forecasted to be majority Hispanic by 2020. The only way for that to happen is to have even more explosive growth than we already have... But I digress.
I've used the wonderful resource that twohundertseventy turned KingofSpaces, James Allen, and I onto in the comments of the Colorado diary for county-wide population figures and for growth rates. For the sake of simplicity, I've applied these growth rates evenly throughout any given county, which allows me to calculate how much population would be needed to fill what in 2020 would be the ideal population. This allows me to accurately split the larger counties instead of just relying on the countywide numbers to guesstimate. I know it isn't the best way of looking at the trend (some areas are going to grow more than others even within a county), but its the only way that works at such a large scale... and even then there were some kinks. In both Harris County and Dallas County, 30,000 citizens somehow just missing after I inflated with the growth rate numbers. I honestly don't know where they went or how they got there, but they're definitely gone - so admittedly this isn't perfect and there had to be some minor adjustments even after the projections are taken into account. Interestingly, it somehow worked out perfectly statewide... I just don't know how... I've been through the math about twenty times already and still can't figure out my good luck!
Now, the big question is demographics. We know that Hispanics are likely to outnumber Anglos by the end of the decade in my great state, but the question is where those Hispanic are likely to be. I've assumed large relative growth in Austin, Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, Corpus Christi, and the Panhandle. I've assumed minimum relative growth in the Valley, the Border and Big Bend, and El Paso. In East Texas I've assumed moderate growth, but that honestly doesn't matter with respect to the election numbers as they start from such a low base (at least outside of Tyler that is) in that region. For the districts below, I'll reference the "Total Population" numbers from Dave's App as a baseline for what the VAP numbers might be in 10 years. From there I'll assume a somewhat higher level because the current total population will not reflect 10 more years' worth of immigration and naturalization. Even given this growth, the Republican Party will still likely have complete control over the process in Texas. I've drawn this map to reflect the will of that legislature and to, at the very least, show what the possibility is in 10 years' time.
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District 3. This district has a current 79.4% Hispanic population, but the numbers will probably be somewhere in the low-80s for VAP during the 2020 round of redistricting. Democrats are safe here as this is a VRA mandated district where Obama, or whatever Democrat in 2016, would have received somewhere around 65% of the vote.
District 21. This district is the El Paso to San Antonio Borderland and Big Bend district. In 2010 the lines have 60.3% Hispanic population, but don't be surprised if in 2020 the population is in the high 60s range. The district's major population areas are actually not the two cities at the end, but Del Rio (which is seeing a rapid transition to Laredo-esque demographics) and the Hispanic sides of Odessa and Midland, which the district had to absorb in order to accomodate a new VRA district to the south. Interestingly, Obama would have lost the borders with McCain getting 55.3% here. That wouldn't be representative of the lines in 2020 though, where a more evenly split or slightly Democratic performance would be expected - just like the current El Paso to San Antonio district. I think we should get used to having a tossup Hispanic district along the border, and, eventually, further north as Lubbock and Amarillo quickly turn brown.
District 20. Laredo is finally separated from the Valley and gets to anchor its own district. The district stretches, in fajita strip form, to take in Eagle Pass, the most southerly portions of Bexar County (only stuff south of 410 where practically no-one lives), Seguin (which is rapidly turning Hispanic from its formerly African American rural roots), and Victoria. The district is 69.9% Hispanic at current, but would more likely be in the mid-70s in 2020 which would provide a bunch of cushioning for Obama's narrow loss here at 49.6%. I'm actually willing to call this district safely Democratic in 2020 just as we like to call the current Brownsville to Corpus district "safe". We could possibly lose in really bad years, but 9 times out of 10 it'd be held by a conservative Hispanic Democrat.
District 19. This McAllen and Mission based district stretch to the north through sparsely inhabited territory. The Hispanic percentage is currently at 88%, but isn't likely to go much higher than that. Democrats will routinely get 65-70% of the vote here.
District 18. This district is based in the other large cities of Hidalgo County: Edinburg and Weslaco. It then stretches north to absorb the whiter areas of Corpus Christi (which probably won't be very white come 2020). The demographics as is reveal a 72.5% Hispanic population, but that number will more than like be in the high 70s by 2020. The district has a narrow Democratic lean, with Obama getting 52.4% of the vote in 2008. Those numbers, however meager, are likely to be significantly outdated by then when Democrats should get at minimum 55% of the vote. I'm sure I could have split the Hispanic community of Corpus more to boost the vote percentage here, but that could have resulted in some sticky VRA issues that I'm not sure we as Democrats want to take up (whether or not any distinct minority communities - in this case Corpus Christi Hispanics - are allowed to be split by VRA districts instead of non-VRA districts if those same districts can be maintained without splitting that group).
District 17. This district takes in Brownsville, Harlingen, and the Hispanic community in Corpus Christi. Hispanics currently make up over 80% of the district and are likely to be slightly higher in 2020. Obama got 60% here and Democrats will match or exceed that performance from here on out.
District 22. This district is based out of San Angelo and Abilene, but also absorbs the 21st's white discards from Odessa and Midland. There are also smaller population bases in Kerrville and Fredericksburg (home of Admiral Nimitz). This district won't be anywhere near competitive in 2020, as McCain got 77% here, but the Hispanic population will boom from its base of 28.5% to at the very least 35% even without having the already Hispanic areas of the twin cities.
District 33. This is perhaps the greatest travesty of the growing Hispanic population! One of the guiding rules of redistricting in Texas is that you do not, period, ever, nada, zip, zilch, combine Lubbock and Abilene in a single district. However, because of the addition of another fajita strip and the resultant shift north of the everything to its west, it is impossible for both of them to anchor their own district. Anyway, you can repeat what I said about the 22nd's Hispanic and political data here.
District 32. This district is based in Wichita Falls, Gainesville, and Decatur, and Weatherford and isn't even on the cusp of having a relevant Hispanic minority (not even 20% yet). Plainview, just north of Lubbock, is the only place where that wave has hit. In most of the urban areas of this district African American's still outnumber Hispanics (cough cough, Wichita Falls, cough cough).
District 26. This district has two population centers. The first is the Centroplex and its various mid-sized cities and the second is Williamson County, where it takes in Round Rock, Georgetown, and Taylor. African Americans and Hispanics are actually both growing rapidly here and are currently at 13% and 19%, respectively. By 2020 those numbers should be 16% and 24% or thereabouts. I'd expect the Democratic performance to edge upward from the exactly 40% Obama showing to somewhere around 45%, but never quite make it to tossup territory.
District 27. This district will never again elect a Democrat. Sorry. Same demographic profile as the 26th and same expectations, but we're starting from a 5% lower electoral floor (to the extent that we could even call that a floor, as Black turnout isn't liable to be the same without Obama atop the national ticket).
District 38. Currently, and by currently I mean the pre-2010 map, this district takes in all of the following: Lufkin, Nacogdoches, Tyler, Longview, and Marshall. Due to growth in the Houston area sucking district towards it, Longview and Marshall had to be removed. Safe Republican. Whoopee.
District 37. Now a Denison-Sherman to Longview-Marshall district instead of a primarily Dallas suburban sham. Can I get a "Yay!" for actually following communities of interest unlike the Republicans' crap? Safe Republican.
District 1. The first San Antonian Hispanic district currently stands at just below 66% Hispanic, but that number will easily top 70% come 2020. Obama received just over 57% of the vote here, but come 2020 a Democratic performance should more typically be 60%. Safely Democratic.
District 2. The second San Antonian Hispanic district current stands at 60% Hispanic, but that isn't because the Anglo population is larger (its the same as the 1st). That honor belongs to the African American population at just above 10%. While they should stay around the same percentage, Hispanics will probably increase to the mid-60s. The Obama and Democratic performances mirror the 1st district.
District 24. Lloyd Doggett is elected on borrowed time. Come 2020 it will be completely possible to draw an Austin based Hispanic majority district like the one above which is 52% Hispanic. In 2020, however, that'd be more like 58% or maybe even 60%. Packing these Hispanic voters into a single district legitimately will mean they can split Travis to cancel out Austin's Democratic strength. Luckily, however, they...
District 25. ... can only ensure that one of the elects a Republican. Lamar Smith's district now takes in everything in Austin south of the Colorado River and combines it with the virulently red rich areas of San Antonio. Result? Safely Republican hugely white 60% McCain district.
District 14. Here's the first one which likely leans Republican. McCaul (who could possibly make it the decade if he's smart) gets a district where McCain got 53.3% of the vote, but which by total population is only plurality white and sinking fast. In 2020 I'd imagine this would be a 50-50 district, but as that decade wore on Democrats would be favored to pick it up.
District 23. Here's the second one which likely leans Republican. There isn't a current incumbent here, but the district closely mimics the 14th in political data, but definitely not in the demographics: this district is still over 70% white and probably won't sink below that because Hispanics are priced out of the housing in these places, places like Cedar Park and West Austin.
District 4. There won't even be a need for a lawsuit in 2020 to assure a Hispanic majority district because they'll be forced to do it out of political necessity. In fact, they'll be forced to draw a second black district* out of political necessity. The fourth is, at current, 60% Hispanic but only 55% Obama. Those numbers in 2020 would be 5% higher each easily.
District 5. This is the second African American opportunity district which they basically have to draw as a vote sink (if they don't it takes the 31st, 35th, and 36th into play). At this time the district is 37-27-27 Black-White-Hispanic, but it isn't hard to imagine in 2020 those numbers being 38-34-20 Black-Hispanic-White. Either way, its still a district where African Americans will dominate the primary and get their candidate elected. The electoral performance here should easily be above Obama's 65% 2008 showing and probably above 70% with the white share dwindling so fast.
District 6. This is that asterisk in my write up for district 4. Under the lines now, the district is plurality Hispanic at 42%. It isn't hard to imagine that in 2020 a district which is majority Hispanic. That being said, I don't see the African American share sinking much further below the 37% they have now, so it still counts as an opportunity district.
District 31. I know we Democrats like to talk about taking out Pete Sessions. It's a wet dream of ours. His district is trending out way fast. Yeah yeah yeah. Under the current lines his district is 50.2% Anglo, so it isn't difficult imagining a 2020 district which is only 45% Anglo. The problem, it seems, is that Hispanics just don't fucking vote (and, for that matter, are often not even citizens). McCain's 55% is likely to be a high water mark for Republicans here, so in 2020 I'd imagine a 50-50 district. The problem is that the legislature probably can't save the guy in 2020 as some kind of Hispanic opportunity is likely to be required in this area. I'm going to count this as a swing.
District 30. Still very white, and will be very white, and very Republican. Safe Republican even in 2020 with a 65% McCain performance.
District 34. Rinse and Repeat. Kay Granger is super safe here if she's still alive and kicking.
District 35. Fuck Joe Barton, but this district is a rinse and repeat of the above.
District 28. God I'm getting boring. Aren't I? Same as above.
District 29. This schtick is old. Time for something new:
District 7. This district is the Hispanic majority one which keeps electing a white congresscritter in the form of Gene Green. It gets removed from the section north of downtown along Interstate 45, so that another Hispanic majority district can be created. Currently only 69% Hispanic (only... lol) and 55% Obama, those numbers are definitely lower than a 2020 district would have.
District 8. This African American opportunity district is now at 43%, but will probably be more like 40% in 2020 because of Hispanic influx. It doesn't matter as the Black strength will ensure their choice gets through the primary.
District 9. This is the second Hispanic majority district at 58% and 58% Obama. Both of those numbers are likely to be higher in 2020.
District 10. This is the second African American district at 30%, but Hispanics could pose a problem at 40%. The Black percentage should remain stable, but Hispanics are growing and have the potential to reach 45% by 2020 here. Let's just call this a coalition district.
District 11 Although this district favored Obama by only 54% in 2008, the fact that Hispanics are growing here makes that a definite Democratic floor. In 2020 it'd be more typical for Democrats to crest 60% routinely. I originally had planned to crack this area, but that'd make the legislature open to another lawsuit as you could argue that this is properly understood at 35-24-24 White-Black-Hispanic as the Al Green district instead of the 10th (where the demographic breakdown is a massive departure from Green's district) - this would be retrogressive. I think Texas Republicans may have had their fill of litigation by 2020. Furthermore, cracking this area with the 15th opens both of them up to tossup status, something the Republicans are probably not willing to do in the Houston area.
District 12. Safely Republican now that all the Hispanics have been moved over to the 9th.
District 13. Safely Republican.
District 15. Safely Republican.
District 39. Safely Republican.
District 16. Hmm. Not even Nick Lampson could win this 58-41 McCain district which doesn't, and won't have enough minorities to boost him in 2020. Still Beaumont, Port Arthur, Texas City, and Galveston. The Republican-Democratic average is 53-47, so perhaps I could be wrong. In 2020 it may actually be a 50-50 split. Let's count it as a tossup just because I hope Lampson wins.
For everyone not keeping score at home, and a rundown for those who are, that makes a Republican drawn Texan map have only 18 Republicans while ceding 16 seats to the Democrats and leaving the possibility open for Democrats to actually have a majority of the delegation for the first time since 2002 with 5 tossups. I'm going to assume that in normal years (at the beginning of the decade) the 21st would be ours and the other four would be theirs. At the end of the decade, I'd put money down that they'd hold only the 16th. Do you know what that means? That means a 20-19 delegation in favor of the Democrats without the map even having been drawn by us. I suppose they could have vote sinked the other half of Austin, but that would have immediately put a district out of their reach and by the time 2020 rolls around Republicans are going to be grasping at straws to maintain their majority in Texas and those straws sure are mightily thin dontcha' see. One can only imagine that the Democrats will retake the legislature during this decade (probably around 2024 or so) and then really ram home a strong gerrymander in 2030.