Drawing my inspiration from sawolf's similar diary applied to North Carolina, I chose to take the concept of redistricting states with telephone area codes as Congressional districts and apply it to my current state of New Jersey. The area codes cut in some interesting ways, so this is a different perspective on the various political dynamics in the state. This map creates six safe Democratic seats and three tilt Republican seats, though it is possible one or two in the first category could switch in a swing year. Map and analysis below the fold.
The area codes in the state:
The state is divided into six areas, which translates to nine area codes (I'm counting the ones with overlays as multimember districts). This is four fewer Congresspeople than the state's current total, and three less than it will have after the post-reapportionment elections this year.
The 201 (551) - 60.2% Obama / 49% White, 8% Black, 26% Hispanic, 14% Asian / Population 1,469,000
The vast majority of Bergen and Hudson counties; basically Rothman and Sires's districts put together, with the northern, more conservative half of Bergen put in (enough to take it out of dark blue territory, but not enough to seriously threaten a Democrat). I suspect in the long term a deal would be worked out between the highly competitive Hudson and Bergen Democratic party organizations to have one congressperson from each county, but in any event the two incumbents have the warchest and the demographics to shut others out of the race. Also a possible Bergen County Asian opportunity down the road, especially considering their rising proportion of the population.
Two Safe D
The 973 (852) - 60.1% O / 53% W, 20% B, 22% H, 6% A / 1,974,000
A district I thought would be a lot different from the 201, but the demographic numbers are much more similar than I thought they would be. This combines the urban centers of Newark and Paterson with the suburbs of Morris County, the Christmas tree farm country of Sussex County, and everything in between. This encompasses the bulk of the Newark-centered black district (formerly held by Rep. Donald Payne, RIP), Bill Pascrell's Paterson-area district, Rodney Frelinghuysen's Morris County-centered district, and the center half or so of Scott Garrett's district (the old 10th, 8th, 11th, and 5th respectively). I think all four would run here (with Newark managing to propel a black Democrat from the area to the nomination in a primary). The neighboring 908, a much more Republican-friendly area that Garrett represents part of and otherwise would be a much better shot for him, would be much less of an option due to the presence of Leonard Lance (who knows; Garrett might try to primary him anyway, but it'd be a tough one). In any event,
1 Safe D
1 Likely D (likelier if non-Pascrell D nominee is weak, or if Garrett or another very conservative Republican gets through the primary)
The 908 - 52.6% O / 61% W, 13% B, 18% H, 7% A / 1,088,000
Largely Leonard Lance's old 7th district, with the addition of urban eastern Union County balanced out by those of conservative parts of Frelinghuysen's and Garrett's districts. Probably a hold for the long-established, pro-choice Lance, if Garrett doesn't move and primary him. Even then…
Likely R with Lance
Tossup/Tilt R with Garrett or other R
The 732 (848) - 51.8% O / 69% W, 7% B, 12% H, 10% A / 1,870,000
The northern part of the Shore and a bit inland, as well as Rutgers University. Parts of at least 5 congressional districts, with none in particular dominating. No clue which candidates would be strongest, but each party has a few that could run here.
2 Lean R depending on candidates
The 609 - 58% O / 67% W, 14% B, 10% H, 6% A / 1,177,000
The outer strip of the Philadelphia area, going from Trenton to Princeton down to Atlantic City and Cape May. Probably going to get carried by a Democrat, and that Democrat is probably going to be Rush Holt!™
Safe D
The 856 - 61% O / 71% W, 14% B, 10% H, 4% A / 1,213,000
Inner Philadelphia suburbs; most of the 1st district, with part of the 2nd and a small bit of the 3rd. Probably a better fit for Rob Andrews than his current seat.
Safe D
I suppose you all can tell what part of the state I know best - additional comments, questions, etc. are welcome!