That was fast! The special master charged with drawing a new congressional map for New York State has already released drafts. You can find close-up versions for each region of the state here (PDF), and the full map below:
(click for larger)
There's also a PDF containing detailed maps
of each individual district. And as always, we have our patented
redistribution chart:
Of course, this map is just a draft and is subject to change before we have a final product, but we were eager to take a district-by-district look at the new lines. Join us below the fold for our analysis, courtesy jeffmd:
1) Tim Bishop's (D) district changes very little. It's still numbered the 1st, and it still keeps Brookhaven on out to Montauk.
2) Is Peter King (R) more vulnerable in new 2nd? It adds heavily minority parts of Babylon and Islip, but still keeps Massapequa. I judge this to be "theoretically vulnerable," rather than necessarily vulnerable in practice.
3) Steve Israel (D) gets a 3rd district much like the old 5th district from the 1990s, from Suffolk to Queens. Not particularly Dem-leaning, but it's probably in the 54-55% Obama range.
4) Carolyn McCarthy (D) is more vulnerable in new 4th with parts of Nassau adjacent to Queens (read: Dem-leaning) moved to the new 5th.
5) Gregory Meeks (D) keeps a Jamaica/SE Queens-based district renumbered the 5th, but helpfully takes the GOP-leaning part of the Rockaway peninsula.
6) Gary Ackerman (D) says he will run in the Queens-based 6th (instead of fighting Israel in new 3rd); this Flushing-to-Middle Village district has a significant Asian community (39%). Meanwhile, Bob Turner's (R) old 9th district is obliterated into pieces, with parts distributed among no fewer than seven districts. The biggest chunk ends up in the 6th, composed of areas that even Democrat David Weprin managed to win in last year's special election. And the second and third biggest chunks? In the obviously GOP-hostile black-majority 8th and 9th.
7) Nydia Velazquez (D) keeps the Bushwick-Lower East Side-Sunset Park district, now numbered the 7th. Not much of a change, though oddly, it's it's less Hispanic than before (now 43%).
8) Ed Towns (D) keeps an arc-shaped 8th district from Bed-Stuy to Canarsie. New is the extension of the second leg that now goes out to Coney Island and the addition of Ozone Park, Queens, but nothing too worrisome.
9) Yvette Clarke (D) keeps a central Brooklyn-based 9th with no significant changes.
10) Jerry Nadler (D) keeps his UWS-Financial District-Borough Park district, now renumbered the 10th. There are no significant changes here, either.
11) Mike Grimm (R) is likely shored up slightly with addition on part of (heavily-Orthodox) Ocean Parkway in new 11th.
12) Carolyn Maloney (D) keeps a UES-Astoria based 12th, but adds Greenpoint, Brooklyn. Not a significant change.
13) Charlie Rangel's (D) new Upper Manhattan 13th become Hispanic majority (55%); it includes Harlem, Spanish Harlem, and Washington Heights, up through to parts of the Bronx.
14) Joe Crowley (D) keeps a Bronx-and-Queens-based 14th, though it's more Hispanic now (47%). Also in a deviation from tradition, Rikers Island is now here, instead of the Harlem-based district.
15) Jose Serrano's (D) South Bronx-based district changes very little, except to get renumbered the 15th.
16 & 17) Eliot Engel (D) and Nita Lowey (D) get mashed up somewhat. Instead of that odd Rockland-Bronx district (Engel's old 17th), there's a Westchester-Bronx district (the 16th, which is very heavily Dem) and a Rockland-Upper Westchester district (the new 17th). I don't doubt that Lowey can hold the 17th, but it's just ugly.
18 & 19) Retiring Maurice Hinchey's (D) Dem-leaning old 22nd district used to stretch along the state's southern border and is redistributed to four neighboring districts, creating headaches for both Nan Hayworth (R) (in the new 18th) and Chris Gibson (R) (in the new 19th). Hayworth receives the Dem-leaning parts of Orange County (Middletown, Newburgh) and the city of Poughkeepsie proper; Gibson receives Dem-leaning Ulster (think Woodstock) and Sullivan Counties. This is somewhat balanced by the addition of red Schoharie County. SUNY Oneonta is also now here. (Richard Hanna's new 22nd and Tom Reed's new 23rd also receive some pieces of Hinchey's district.)
20) Paul Tonko (D) maintains an Albany/Schenectady/Troy-centric 20th and should be fine.
21) Bill Owens (D) loses GOP-leaning parts of Oneida; adds swingy Washington & Warren Counties (think Scott Murphy country) in new 21st.
22) Richard Hanna's (R) new 22nd is likely about flat, with the removal of college town Ithaca but the addition of Binghamton.
23) Tom Reed (R) is in a bluer new 23rd with addition of all of Ithaca/Tompkins County, as well as Dem-leaning Geneva... but with the solid GOP strength in the Southern Tier, will it matter?
24) Ann Marie Buerkle (R) is probably a goner in new 24th. It now includes all of Syracuse and Dem-leaning parts of Oswego County. It's definitely bluer than before.
25) Louise Slaughter (D) is in a contracted new 25th that includes only Monroe County. This is necessarily more GOP than the "earmuffs" of her old district, but with most exurban parts removed, we're still talking a 58-59% Obama seat.
26) Brian Higgins (D) is in a very comfortable new 26th that includes all of Buffalo proper, as well as Dem-leaning inner suburbs.
27) Kathy Hochul (D) is pretty much screwed in new 27th with most of Dem-leaning parts Erie sunk into Higgins' 26th.
And finally, a sortable table that matches up old district numbers with (as best as possible) new numbers:
Old |
Incumbent |
Party |
New |
1 |
Bishop |
(D) |
1 |
2 |
Israel |
(D) |
3 |
3 |
King |
(R) |
2 |
4 |
McCarthy |
(D) |
4 |
5 |
Ackerman |
(D) |
6 |
6 |
Meeks |
(D) |
5 |
7 |
Crowley |
(D) |
14 |
8 |
Nadler |
(D) |
10 |
9 |
Turner |
(R) |
-- |
10 |
Towns |
(D) |
8 |
11 |
Clarke |
(D) |
9 |
12 |
Velazquez |
(D) |
7 |
13 |
Grimm |
(R) |
11 |
14 |
Maloney |
(D) |
12 |
15 |
Rangel |
(D) |
13 |
16 |
Serrano |
(D) |
15 |
17 |
Engel |
(D) |
16 |
18 |
Lowey |
(D) |
17 |
19 |
Hayworth |
(R) |
18 |
20 |
Gibson |
(R) |
19 |
21 |
Tonko |
(D) |
20 |
22 |
OPEN (Hinchey) |
(D) |
-- |
23 |
Owens |
(D) |
21 |
24 |
Hanna |
(R) |
22 |
25 |
Buerkle |
(R) |
24 |
26 |
Hochul |
(D) |
27 |
27 |
Higgins |
(D) |
26 |
28 |
Slaughter |
(D) |
25 |
29 |
Reed |
(R) |
23 |