Late last night I ran a little contest in this diary. I asked Kossacks to tell me their predictions on the ruling with at least the spread and the decision. (For the record, I lost badly... calling it 5-4 mandate being tossed, other parts upheld. I have NEVER been happier about losing!)
Go below Seymour Pellington's monogram for the results!
MOST predicted a smackdown of either the mandate or whole thing. A few predicted victory, and some were close. But I give you the winners.
Victor: CPH!!!!
The mandate will be upheld on a 5-4 vote. The four "liberals" plus the Chief Justice.
Other parts (eg., medicaid expansion) will be upheld by larger majorities.
Wrong on the medicaid expansion, but right about the spread and the only one to call the Chief Justice as joining the liberals on the vote.
2nd Place: (tie)
GOOSEROCK!!!
Scalia's immigration rant says he lost on health too. Upheld at least 5-4 without Scalia.
SLINKERWINK!!
5-4 the mandate is kept
3rd Place: Paleo!
Mandate struck, but "fee" upheld as a tax. 5-4 and 6-3.
So, in practical terms, the legislation will stand.
The only one to call out the mandate as a "tax", which was Roberts justification for keeping it. Well played.
Honorable mention for closeness: fladem, SemDem, Cali Scribe
The optimists seem to have won this round. Again, I am happy to have lost.