This little factoid in yesterday's LA Times sums up an essential political truth that's normally forgotten in the current climate:
Over the past 20 years, Republican presidential candidates have averaged 44.5% of the popular vote in presidential campaigns; Democratic candidates have averaged 48.4% (third party candidates account for the rest). Currently, in Gallup’s tracking, that’s exactly where the two candidates sit: Obama 48%, Romney 44% -- each man polling at the generic average level of his party.
Let's look at this point again--the Dems have a 20 yr generic advantage of about 4% of the popular vote in presidential elections. Obama's ability to maintain such an advantage thus far despite a weak economy is consistent w/ that advantage. The GOP has lost the popular vote in 4 of the past 5 national elections, and it may well be on its way to making it 5 of 6.
McCain obtaining 45.7% of the 2008 popular vote is widely deemed to have been an abject failure. In reality, he ran over 1 point better than his party's recent norms. He was, in fact, in the middle of the GOP bell curve--he did better than GHWB in '92 and Dole in '96 and worse than GWB in his 2 runs.
Put another way, GWB's 50.7% in 2004 is the only GOP popular vote total to top 48%. Convincing a depressingly large swath of the American electorate that AQ might attack their neighborhood if Kerry were elected was the only means by which the GOP was able to exceed that low threshold. At present, it does not appear that it will be met, much less exceeded, this year.
Given these hard, cold numbers, one might think that the party w/ the 4% generic advantage might act accordingly. One wouldn't expect to see an incumbent Dem senator give the Keynote Address at the 2004 GOP Convention. One wouldn't expect to see another such senator (from a blue state) to endorse McCain in 2008 and vigorously campaign w/ him. One wouldn't expect to see at least 3 incumbent Dem senators and at least 8 Dem MOCs, including 2 or 3 from the host state decline to attend the 2012 Dem Convention.
We saw another incumbent Dem MOC essentially hand back the gift that her opponent tried to give her this past week:
People now don't die from prostate cancer, breast cancer and some of the other things," he told The Batavian in an interview that was flagged Tuesday by City & State NY. Collins was discussing his desire to repeal Obamacare. "The fact of the matter is, our healthcare today is so much better, we're living so much longer, because of innovations in drug development, surgical procedures, stents, implantable cardiac defibrillators, neural stimulators — they didn't exist 10 years ago," he continued. "The increase in cost is not because doctors are making a lot more money. It's what you can get for healthcare, extending your life and curing diseases.""
Luckily, his Democratic opponent, one Kathy Hochul, stepped up to the plate and knocked this fat, hanging curveball for a solid, five-bounce infield hit....
Hochul said Monday that she knows the president's signature health care law is imperfect, but Congress needs to address other issues. "There's a lot of uncertainty about this, but it is now the law of the land and they understand that," she said at a town hall in Victor, N.Y., according to local NBC affiliate WHEC.com. "And we don't want to take this country backward and re-litigate and re-fight over this. We've got a lot of other issues to deal with. We've got an economy that has to get back on track."
What are these people afraid of? Why do they so visibly fear the party of the 44%? Why are 2 netroots favorites from 2006 (McCaskill and Tester) consciously running away from the party w/ the 4% generic spread this time?
I really don't get this apparent fear of a party that's in the distinct minority.