The tragedy currently occurring in Syria is the focus of some degree of coverage in the media these days. However, most people know very little about the country, so I would like to provide some information about the country which might help those interested understand Syria and recent events a little better.
This is the fourth post in the series.
The first post can be read here.
The second post can be read here.
The annex to the second post can be read here.
I hope to write one more post in the next few days with some additional information about Syria; the involvement of the EU in Syria before 2011.
- • Syrian Kurdistan • -
News about the potential establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria was covered by the media about three weeks ago and then fell of the radar, but the Syrian Kurd’s consolidation and expansion of their control over much of the area along Syria’s northern border has continued.
There are probably about 2,500,000 - and possibly as many as 3,000,000 - Syrian Kurds. Most of them live along the Turkish-Syrian border.
A number of Kurds live in Metropolitan Damascus and in Aleppo (city), and a relatively small number of Kurds also live in one small area along the Turkish-Syrian border in the northwestern part of the Idlib Governorate and along the Turkish-Syrian border in the northern part of the Latakia Governorate.
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It is the Syrian Kurds objective to establish an autonomous Syrian Kurdish region along the Turkish-Syrian border which would include the northern parts of the Aleppo and Ar-Raqqah Governorates and all of the Al-Hasakah Governorate.
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The Aleppo Governorate
Most or all of the Afrin District, the northwestern district of the Aleppo Governorate, is reported to be under Kurdish control. The district is predominately Kurdish.
The Afrin District is about 36 km west to east.
Much of the district directly east of the Afrin District, the Azaz District, is reported to be under the control of the FSA. Sunni Arabs are a strong majority in the district.
The Azaz District is about 40 km west to east.
Much of the district directly east of the Azaz District, the Jarabulus District, is reported to be under the control of a local Turkoman Committee, with the support of the FSA who provide security. Turkomen are probably in the majority in the district, with Kurdish and Sunni Arab minorities, but the areas just south of its southern border are heavily Kurdish.
The Jarabulus District is about 50 km west to east and its eastern boundary is the Euphrates.
Much of the Ayn al-Arab District, the northeastern district of the Aleppo Governorate, is reported to be under the control of Kurds. The district is predominately Kurdish.
The Ayn al-Arab District is about 54 km west to east.
The remainder of the Aleppo Governorate is shown in grey.
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The Ar-Raqqah Governorate
The northern district of the Ar-Raqqah Governorate, the Tell Abiad District, including its largest town, also named Tell Abiad, and the border crossing located there are reported to be under the control of the Syrian Government. The district is sparsely populated and Sunni Arabs are the majority in the district, which also has a significant Kurdish minority.
The Tell Abiad District is about 70 km west to east.
The remainder of the Ar-Raqqah Governorate is shown in yellow.
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The Al-Hasakah Governorate
The three northern districts of the Al-Hasakah Governorate are reported to be completely under Kurdish control. Kurds are the strong majority in the three districts, which also have Sunni Arab and Christian minorities.
The three districts are about 260 km west to east.
Much of the remainder of the Al-Hasakah Governorate, shown in pink, is reported to also be under Kurdish control, but the Syrian Government is reported to be at least nominally in control of the governorate’s capital, Al-Hasakah, and the Al-Yarubiyah border crossing into Iraq.
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- • The NCB, FSA, SNC, KNC, PYD and Kurdish Supreme Committee • -
The National Coordination Committee for the Forces of Democratic Change or the National Coordination Board (NCC or NCB) was established on June 30, 2011 in Damascus, Syria. The NCB is secular and leftist. It is very critical of Turkey, supports resolution through dialogue, and is against foreign-led regime change in Syria and foreign political and military intervention in Syria.
The Free Syrian Army (FSA) was established on July 29, 2011 in Turkey by Col. Riad al-Asaad, who had defected from the Syrian Air Force on July 4, 2011, under the sponsorship of the Turkish Government. The FSA is the largest anti-regime militia in Syria and is commanded primarily by officers who defected from the Syrian military. The FSA entered into a cooperation agreement with the SNC on March 24, 2012 in which it was agreed that the FSA’s financing, which comes predominately from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, would by handled by an SNC-FSA liaison office.
The Syrian National Council (SNC) was established on September 15, 2011 in Istanbul, Turkey under the sponsorship of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan. The SNC is dominated by conservative Sunnis, through its Syrian Muslim Brotherhood and other conservative Sunni members. It is against resolution through dialogue, funded predominately by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, hosted by the Turkish Government, and is for Western-led military intervention. The SNC is also against Kurdish autonomy in Syria.
The Kurdish National Council or the Kurdish Patriotic Conference (KNC) was established on October 26, 2011 in Qamishli, Syria by representatives from most of the Syrian Kurdish groups, with the major exception being the PYD. The KNC is secular and leftist, and does not trust Turkey. It calls for changes to be made to the Syrian governmental system without directly calling for regime change. It also calls for Kurdish autonomy in Syria and makes its cooperation with and support for other opposition groups dependent on their acceptance of the KNC’s key positions.
The Democratic Union Party (PYD) was established in 2003 in northern Syria. The PYD is a charter member of the NCB and its leader is a member of the NCB’s Executive Council. The PYD is also probably the strongest Kurdish group in Syria and has been linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) of Turkey. The PYD denies this but admits that they have common philosophies. Following the Adana Agreement, signed by Turkey and Syria on October 20, 1998, and as the friendship between Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan and Syrian President Assad grew, Syria cracked down very heavily on the PKK and PKK-related groups in Syria, especially the PYD. In spite of this the PYD grew more popular and powerful among the Kurds in Syria, especially in the Afrin and Ayn al-Arab Districts of the Aleppo Governorate.
The Kurdish Supreme Committee was established on July 11, 2012 in Erbil, Kurdistan Region of Iraq under the sponsorship of Massoud Barzani, President of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The Kurdish Supreme Committee was established through an agreement between the KNC and the PYD in which they agreed to cooperate in the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria and that the committee would plan and oversee all of the activities of the KNC and PYD. The agreement also called for the establishment of armed People’s Protection Committees, who would be responsible for public security in the areas under the committee’s control.
Notes: The current NCC/SNC/KNC spilt is very similar to the split which occurred among the Syrian opposition following their attempt at unity in 2005 which is called the Damascus Declaration.
The Turkish newspaper Bugun reported on July 27, 2012 that during an interview they had had with Col. Riad al-Asaad, the leader of the FSA, he said that the FSA would not abandon Qamishli and that the FSA was prepared to go to war for one square meter of Syrian soil.
Col. al-Asaad is also reported to have said that the FSA would never accept a self-governing Kurdish region, that the FSA would oppose the Kurds but it didn’t now have enough power to do so, that the FSA’s fighters were fighting a war against Assad and after this war, if they had the strength, and if the Kurds didn’t change, the FSA would fight a war against them.
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- • The Kurdistan Region of Iraq • -
One major factor in the possible establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region in Syria is the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq because it is the sponsor of and an example for the Kurdish Supreme Committee, and also provides training and support for the Kurdish Supreme Committee.
The establishment of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq dates back to 1970, and after surviving decades of attacks by the Iraqi government, wars, and civil wars between Kurdish groups, the region began to take a more stable, recognized form in 2004 following the the United States-organized coalition’s invasion of Iraq on March 20, 2003.
The two major parties in the region are the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) which is led by Massoud Barzani, the President of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) which is led by Jalal Talabani, the President of Iraq.
The KDP is dominant in the Dohuk and Erbil Governorates and the PUK is dominant in the Al-Sulaimaniyah Governorate.
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The Republic of Iraq has 18 governorates.
The Constitution of Iraq - which was approved by a referendum on October 15, 2005 and came into effect on March 16, 2006 - recognized Kurdistan as a federal region.
Section Five Powers of the Regions
Article 117:
First: This Constitution, upon coming into force, shall recognize the region of Kurdistan, along with its existing authorities, as a federal region.
The constitution also allows other governorates or groups of governorates to become regions and establishes the mechanisms for doing so.
Governorates are governed under the Iraqi constitution while regions adopt their own constitutions, which cannot contradict the Iraqi Constitution, and are governed by both, with the national constitution having supremacy.
Under the Iraqi constitution regions are allowed to exercise executive, legislative and judicial powers; and to establish their own police and security forces.
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The Kurdistan Region of Iraq is defined as consisting of the Dohuk, Erbil and Al-Sulaimaniyah Governorates and has an area of about 38,600 sq. km and a population of about 4,600,000.
Its capital is Erbil, which is also the capital of the Erbil Governorate.
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The Law of Administration for the State of Iraq for the Transitional Period (TAL), which was effective from March 8, 2004 to March 16, 2006, recognized the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
Chapter Eight - Regions, Governorates, and Municipalities
Article 53:
(A) The Kurdistan Regional Government is recognized as the official government of the territories that were administered by that government on 19 March 2003 in the governorates of Dohuk, Arbil, Sulaimaniya, Kirkuk, Diyala and Neneveh. The term “Kurdistan Regional Government” shall refer to the Kurdistan National Assembly, the Kurdistan Council of Ministers, and the regional judicial authority in the Kurdistan region.
The line which indicates which areas were administered by the KRG on March 19, 2003 is called the ‘Green Line’.
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The KRG continued to push southwestward after Iraq was invaded in 2003 and expanded the area under its control.
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One of the main disputes between the Government of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the Government of the Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is the borders of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which still have not been agreed upon.
The other main disputes are the control of oil and natural gas and the distribution of oil and natural gas revenue.
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- • Borders • -
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the potential Kurdistan Region of Syria would have a common border where Turkey, Syria and Iraq meet.
Turkey is to the north, Syria to the southwest, and Iraq to the southeast.
For scale the line in the bottom left corner indicates a length of 9 km (5.6 miles).
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The common border between the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the potential Kurdistan Region of Syria would be the Tigris and would technically be only about 6 km long.
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq is on the right, east of the Tigris. The small triangle shaped area at the bottom, west of the Tigris, is technically part of the Ninevah Governorate of Iraq.
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However, the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq currently controls, and claims, areas in the Ninevah Governorate southwest of the Dohuk Governorate, including the potentially strategic northern border crossing into Syria, and the Al-Hasakah Governorate.
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- • Observations • -
It is possible that an autonomous Kurdish region will be established in Syria. The Syrian Kurds seem to have become much more politically sophisticated and realize that by focusing on the future, taking strategic political actions, and having a degree of military strength could make this possible.
I do not believe that Syria will split up. The world in general wouldn’t support it and the people of Syria, in my opinion, don’t want it.
It seems that a Druze State is not possible; their numbers are probably too small to sustain one and being geographically wedged between Syria and Jordan would be problematic.
It also seems that there couldn’t be a Christian State; Syrian Christians are distributed all over Syria.
In the most extreme case I think that there could be a Federal Syrian State with an autonomous Kurdish Region in the north and an autonomous Alawite region along the Mediterranean coast.
... which might actually be worth considering.
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